The US Will Go Bankrupt, Collapse, and Break Up | Andrew Napolitano

The greatest threats to America come not from abroad but from internal overreach: a permanent surveillance state, secret executive militarism, congressional impotence, judicial passivity, and catastrophic debt. The formal structure of the Constitution remains, but its functional authority is evaporating. This points toward systemic failure.

 

 The Course of Empire, painting by Thomas Cole, 1836

Congress has abdicated its legislative role, the judiciary selectively enforces constitutional norms, and the executive rules increasingly by decree. Meanwhile, lobbying power from defense contractors and pro-Israel groups locks Congress into perpetual military spending—now over $1 trillion annually, more than the next ten countries combined.

 Map of the 2nd American Civil War, July 2025.

 

Domestically, the unchecked growth of executive power is matched by economic instability. The federal debt, nearing $40 trillion, carries annual interest exceeding $1 trillion—an unsustainable burden that threatens systemic collapse. Tariffs, imposed unilaterally and used as political weapons, drive up consumer prices while violating constitutional limits, which vest taxing authority solely in Congress. Courts may soon invalidate these executive-imposed tariffs, but political gridlock makes corrective legislation unlikely.

 

» Collapse—not through revolution, but insolvency. «

 

If unchecked, these dynamics will lead to the federal government's collapse—not through revolution, but insolvency. Unable to service its debt, pay salaries, or borrow, Washington could cease functioning. The likely outcome is regional fragmentation: a dozen or so independent republics forming along ideological and geographic lines—e.g., New England, Texas, and the Southeast. This breakup, though gradual and nonviolent, will mark the end of the United States as a unified federal entity.

 

Reference:
Andrew Napolitano (August 19, 2025)  - The US Will Go Bankrupt, Collapse & Break Up. (video)

 

 

» Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease. «

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb, 1978.

See also:

Neema Parvini (2025) - The "Iron Law of Oligarchy" and the Delusion of Democracy. 

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Age of Decadence. 

Ray Dalio (2025) - Don't Think That What's Now Happening Is Mostly About Tariffs.

Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.
Martin Armstrong (2024) - The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle.

TPR (2024) - How fast Superpowers can Collapse.

 

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies. 

The Developed World Populism Index │ Ray Dalio

* The latest point includes cases like Trump, UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Front in France,
Podemos in Spain, and Five Star Movement in Italy. It doesn’t include major emerging country populists,
like Erdogan in Turkey or Duterte in the Philippines.

On March 22, 2017 Ray Dalio published "Populism: The Phenomenon", a paper that analyzes the role of populism in today’s world and in history. Ray Dalio runs the $150 billion dollar hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest. The paper introduces a "Developed World Populism Index", which Dalio says measures the strength of populism over time. It’s a weighted index of the vote share of anti-establishment parties or candidates in national elections for major developed countries since 1900. The index shows that populism is now at its highest level since the early 1930s. Contemporary populism includes supporters of Donald Trump, UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Front in France, Podemos in Spain and Five Star Movement in Italy. "Populism is not well understood because, over the past several decades, it has been infrequent in emerging countries (e.g., Chávez’s Venezuela, Duterte’s Philippines, etc.) and virtually nonexistent in developed countries. It is one of those phenomena that comes along in a big way about once a lifetime — like pandemics, depressions, or wars. The last time that it existed as a major force in the world was in the 1930s, when most countries became populist. Over the last year, it has again emerged as a major force."
 

A portrait of President Andrew Jackson (1829-1837) hangs on the wall behind President Trump in the
Oval Office of the White House. Jackson was a rich, bragging populist, who said: "I was born for a
storm and a calm doesn’t suit me." Also: "Peace, above all things, is to be desired, but blood must
sometimes be spilled to obtain it on equable and lasting terms." Trump like Jackson is a rich, bragging
businessman, a narcissist and reality TV star, who never held any public office before. Calm doesn’t
suit him either, and millions at the U.S. home front are prepared for storm and blood
(see also HERE + HERE).

"We believe that populism’s role in shaping economic conditions will probably be more powerful than classic monetary and fiscal policies (as well as a big influence on fiscal policies)," writes Dalio and three Bridgewater colleagues. Populism is a political and social phenomenon that arises from the common man, typically not well-educated, being fed up with 1) wealth and opportunity gaps, 2) perceived cultural threats from those with different values in the country and from outsiders, the “establishment elites” in positions of power, and 4) government not working effectively for them, according to Dalio. In other words, populism is a rebellion of the common man against the elites and, to some extend, against the system. In summary, populism is:

• power to the common man.
• through the tactic of attacking the establishment, the elites, and the powerful.
• brought about by wealth and opportunity gaps, xenophobia, and people being fed up with government not working effectively, which leads to the emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man and make the system run more efficiently.
• protectionism.
• nationalism.
• militarism.
• greater conflict, and greater attempts to influence or control the media.