JPMorgan Maps and Times the Global Oil Supply Shockwave

JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva released a report on March 26, 2026 (no complete official  public version available) that outlines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a progressive, region-by-region oil supply shock. As of March 30, 2026, this analysis remains the authoritative reference: 

 

East Asia and Asia-Pacific deplete first—while the Bab al-Mandab Strait remains open, Africa, Europe, and the Americas follow.

The global oil supply system has shifted from an abrupt flow disruption to a gradual inventory depletion crisis, with timing emerging as the central driver of economic impact. The report’s core projections—an initial gross supply shock of approximately 16 million barrels (MMbbl) per day tapering to around 10 MMbbl per day by April—continue to align with current developments.

 

Estimated Dependency on Persian Gulf / West Asia Oil Imports (2025–2026). 

Nature and Progression of the Supply Shock

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed more than 95% below normal levels since the last regular commercial tanker departed on February 28, 2026. The shockwave propagates from east to west, governed by maritime distances from the Persian Gulf. Asia, which normally receives over 80% of the crude oil transiting the Strait, faces the earliest and most severe effects. Pre-closure shipments have been exhausted, resulting in rapid inventory depletion across the region. India experienced the initial impact, followed by Northeast Asian importers including China, Japan, and South Korea.

 

Southeast-Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Africa

Southeast Asian oil demand is projected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in April. Losses could exceed 2 MMbbl per day in May and approach 3 MMbbl per day by June if strategic reserve releases remain limited to individual national efforts. Africa is expected to encounter visible impacts in early April, with potential oil demand losses reaching 250,000 barrels per day should inventories continue to decline.

 

The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. 

 

Asia-Pacific Emergency Measures and Rationing

Several Asia-Pacific governments have implemented structured conservation and demand-management policies. The Philippines (population 117 million) declared a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026 through Executive Order No. 110 signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Department of Energy has directed power-sector participants to adopt immediate fuel-conservation protocols, prudent load management, and generation-schedule adjustments. A four-day work week has been introduced for many government offices, accompanied by encouragement of remote work and reduced non-essential travel. Fuel imports from alternative sources, including Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers, have been authorized. 

The irony is that Australia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters—the third-largest
exporter of LNG and the leading seaborne supplier of thermal and metallurgical coal.

 

Australia (27M) holds approximately 36 days of petrol stocks, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet-fuel inventories (figures from early March, now further drawn down). Nationwide rationing has not been enacted, though the government has temporarily eased fuel-quality standards for 60 days to redirect roughly 100 million liters of export-grade fuel into the domestic market each month. Service stations in some areas have introduced voluntary purchase caps, and national contingency planning for standardized stock reporting and potential future rationing is advancing.
 

South Korea (51M) has imposed a five-month ban on naphtha exports, effective March 27, 2026, to prioritize domestic petrochemical and refining needs. China has restricted overseas shipments of refined fuels to preserve domestic inventories. Approximately 5% of ethylene production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and China has shut down due to feedstock shortages.

Impacts on Europe and North America

Europe (450M) is projected to face pressure by mid-April, primarily through elevated costs and intensified competition for non-Gulf supplies rather than outright physical shortages. Natural-gas prices on the continent have risen to 55–58 euros per megawatt-hour, while airlines confront severe pressure from surging jet-fuel expenses. Slovenia has become the first European Union member to impose explicit fuel rationing, limiting private motorists to 50 liters per day.

 

North America appears latest in the timeline, with most Gulf shipments expected to cease arriving around April 15, 2026. The US (342M) is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages owing to its robust domestic production. The impact will manifest mainly through rising fuel prices and refined-product market dislocations. West Texas Intermediate crude has increased more than 40% in March and continues to trade approximately 10 dollars below Brent.
 

Mitigation Efforts and Global Responses

Gulf producers are expanding alternative export routes to mitigate the disruption. Saudi Arabia has increased flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu from 0.8 to 3.3 MMbbl per day, with potential to reach 4.7 MMbbl per day by April. The United Arab Emirates has raised throughput on its Fujairah bypass pipeline from 1.1 to 1.6 MMbbl per day. These workarounds replace only a fraction of the lost capacity.

 

A Russian tanker carrying 650,000 barrels of Urals crude arrived in Cuba (11M) on Monday

despite the US genocidal blockade of the island, providing limited relief for roughly 9–10 days.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of 400 MMbbl from strategic reserves across its 32 member nations—the largest such operation in the agency’s history—with the US contributing nearly half from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has described the current disruption as the greatest threat to global energy security on record.

 

Geopolitical and Market Outlook

On March 26, 2026, Epstein's boyfriend announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. He cited an Iranian request for negotiations, noting that Iran had permitted 10 tankers to pass through the Strait as a goodwill gesture; Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were under way.

 

For now, as Asia bears the brunt of both immediate and long-term harm, the satanic

US war machine once again emerges as the leading and most immediate war profiteer.

 

Brent crude, which closed at $108.01 per barrel on March 27, now trades in the $111–115 range as of March 30, 2026. Macquarie Group has assigned a 40% probability to the conflict extending through June, a scenario that could drive Brent above $200 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to approximately $7 per gallon. Wood Mackenzie has warned that a sustained Brent average of $125 per barrel throughout 2026 would be sufficient to trigger a global recession. 

 

The global oil supply crisis has strained aviation, agriculture, construction, and heavy transport sectors, prompting emergency measures in several Southeast Asian countries. Geopolitically, the disruption has enhanced the attractiveness of Russian overland export corridors and reinforced the strategic position of US LNG supplies in both Asian and European markets.

 

See also:

 SupplyStatus (March 28, 2026) - JPMorgan Maps Global Oil Shockwave from Hormuz Closure - Global Supply Crisis Timeline.

Stanislav Krapivnik (March 27, 2026) - No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins.

TPR (March 23, 2026) - Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235.