The 32-Day Cycle: High-Accuracy Edge in S&P 500 First-Hour Structure

This 32-calendar-day cycle is a fixed periodicity in the S&P 500 cash index (SPX), in which ‘Early Highs’ and ‘Early Lows’ during the first 60 minutes (9:30–10:30 a.m. ET) of the New York regular trading session follow a precise pattern.

 

Projected Early Highs and Lows, Daily Bias, and Day-of-Week notes for the SPX (May and June 2026). 

 

Empirically derived from Jeffrey Tennant's daily forecasts, this cycle demonstrates a 99.3% repeat rate (136/137 valid pairs) across a 13-month sample from late April 2025 through May 2026, spanning a full spectrum of typical market conditions.

 

Jeffrey Tennant forecast for May 22, 2026. 

[Note: The scope here excludes the MEJT system and focuses solely on the 32-day cycle (dates in blue).] 

 

Early Low days exhibit a strong bullish bias, with Close > Open in 69.5% of cases (average return: +0.34%). Tennant frequently characterizes these sessions as 'typically bullish, with a final-hour high.' By contrast, Early High days show a mild negative-to-neutral bias over the sample period (average: −0.09%). This edge is materially amplified on specific weekdays: Monday Early Low stands out as the highest-conviction setup, with a 74.1% bullish close rate, an average gain of +0.45%, and the strongest asymmetry in the dataset. Conversely, Friday Early High represents the clearest cautionary signal (41% bullish, average: −0.17%).

 

 

Early Low and Early High Days Performance by Weekday.

■ Early Low has the strongest bullish edge on Mondays (74.1% positive days).
■ Early High on Fridays shows the clearest negative bias (only 41% bullish days, largest average loss).

Validated via direct sequence matching and daily OHLC backtesting (with 30-minute or lower timeframes being optimal), this cycle enables consistent projection of high-probability intraday structures and daily directional bias. The sequence, or similar 32-day patterns, likely extends to other trading sessions and instruments.

 

S&P 500 Average Open-to-Close Change & Average Daily Range by Weekday (June 2025 to May 2026):

■ Monday Strongest: +12.66 points (+0.19%).
■ Monday Calmest: 56.30-point daily range.
■ Thursday Weakest: -10.65 points (-0.15%).
■ Thursday most Volatile: 69.73-point daily range. 

See also:

Jeffrey Tennant (2011) - The MEJT System: A New Tool for Day Trading the S&P 500 Index.

 Larry Williams (2022) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change. 

Scott Hoffman (2012) - George Taylor's Three-Day Trading Cycle.

 Linda Raschke (2001) - Swing Trading: Rules and Philosophy.