Possible Head and Shoulders Top in the S&P 500 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 dropped 2.5% in December 2024, which means that the month of December did not live up to its bullish seasonality. We view this as a risk for January, the first Quarter and the first half of 2025. The upside gap in the 5,864 to 5,783 area triggered by the 2024 Presidential election offers big support in early 2025. 

S&P 500 (daily candlesticks with moving averages).

 

If the S&P 500 fills this gap, the risk is for a November into January head and shoulders top that would expose bigger support at 5,700-5,650. Until then, the shoulder peaks at 6,017-6,050 offer key resistance on the S&P 500 ahead of upside counts at 6,150-6,180.

Stephen Suttmeier, January 9, 2025.

S&P 500 (daily bars) vs CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, January 10, 2025.