Sunday, January 25, 2015

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with
Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution
For the methodology see HERE
Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Despite Sanctions Russia offers Freetrade Agreement to EU

Cooperation, Stagnation or Rivalry?
In an interview with the EUobserver (January 2, 2015) Vladimir Chizhov, the ambassador of the Russian Federation to the European Union, presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States (TTIP) and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US: "Do you believe it is wise to spend so much political energy on a free trade zone with the USA while you have more natural partners at your side, closer to home? [...] We might think of a free trade zone encompassing all of the interested parties in Eurasia […] Our idea is to start official contacts between the EU and the EAEU as soon as possible. 

Putin to Merkel: "No matter what you do, you will be fucked anyway!"
[...] German chancellor Angela Merkel talked about this not long ago. The EU sanctions on Russia are not a hindrance […] I think that common sense advises us to explore the possibility of establishing a common economic space in the Eurasian region, including the focus countries of the Eastern Partnership [an EU policy on closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine]."

Crude Oil breaking below 17-Year Support

Source: Chart of the Day
On January 7 the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was a mere USD 48. The long-term trend of West Texas Intermediate crude that has largely traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel since the late 1990s. However, with the dramatic 55% plunge that began back in mid-2014, crude oil has now clearly broken below support (green line) of its 17-year trend channel - a significant turn of events (see chart at left).

Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below). 

However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.

Source: Raj Times and Cycles

Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).