Showing posts with label Toby Crabel Pattern Scanner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toby Crabel Pattern Scanner. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

How to Trade the Toby Crabel Patterns

Toby Crabel is a short-term futures trader and the author of Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout (1990), a now out-of-print book that defined the patterns and opening-range breakout strategy that made his approach influential among short-term traders. He later founded Crabel Capital Management, a systematic trading firm. 
 
The pattern forms yesterday; the trade is taken in the next session.  
A pattern scan is taken at 5:30 p.m. ET, in the halt before the 6:00 p.m. reopen, and kept until the next one. That is when these sessions have a finished high, low, and close, so the row is an end-of-day pattern. Earlier, the bar is still forming. After 6:00 p.m. the new session is left out until the next 5:30 p.m. scan. Friday's scan stays up until Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET. A holiday close can come earlier.  
In his book, Crabel examined whether relationships among the open, high, low, and close could reveal repeatable, tradable patterns. He presented computer-tested answers to common short-term trading questions across five sections: opening-range breakouts; short-term price patterns; expansion and contraction patterns; combinations of price patterns with expansion and contraction; and openings and closings within different segments of a price bar.

Contraction occurs when a range stops expanding: a narrow-range (NR) bar, an inside day (ID), or several consecutive bars of either type, with the tightest range at the end of the contraction. Expansion is the breakout from that range, entered at the next open. A wide spread (WS) reading indicates that the breakout has already carried price beyond the prior range.

NR (Narrow Range): A price bar whose range is narrower than the previous bar. Its opposite is WS. Next to NR4, NR5, and NR7 it is technically NR2.

NR4 (Narrow Range 4): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous three bars, marking the narrowest range in four bars. Its opposite is WS4. NR, NR5, and NR7 are also closely watched patterns.

NR5 (Narrow Range 5): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous four bars, marking the narrowest range in five bars. Its opposite is WS5. NR, NR4, and NR7 are also closely watched patterns.

NR7 (Narrow Range 7): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous six bars, marking the narrowest range in seven bars. Its opposite is WS7. NR, NR4, and NR5 are also closely watched patterns.

WS (Wide Spread): A price bar whose range is wider than the previous bar. Its opposite is NR. Next to WS4, WS5, and WS7 it is technically WS2.

WS4 (Wide Spread 4): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous three bars, marking the widest range in four bars. Its opposite is NR4. WS, WS5, and WS7 are also closely watched patterns.

WS5 (Wide Spread 5): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous four bars, marking the widest range in five bars. Its opposite is NR5. WS, WS4, and WS7 are also closely watched patterns.

WS7 (Wide Spread 7): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous six bars, marking the widest range in seven bars. Its opposite is NR7. WS, WS4, and WS5 are also closely watched patterns.

ID (Inside Day): A bar whose high is below the previous high and whose low is above the previous low, so the session sits inside the prior bar.

OD (Outside Day): A bar whose high is above the previous high and whose low is below the previous low, so the session takes out both sides of the prior bar.

IDnr4 (Inside Day Narrow Range 4): An inside day that is also an NR4. The bar sits inside the prior bar, and its range is narrower than each of the previous three bars.

2BNR (2 Bar Narrow Range): The two-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest two-bar range of the last 20 sessions.

3BNR (3 Bar Narrow Range): The three-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest three-bar range of the last 20 sessions.

4BNR (4 Bar Narrow Range): The four-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest four-bar range of the last 30 sessions.

8BNR (8 Bar Narrow Range): The eight-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest eight-bar range of the last 40 sessions.

Bear Hook: An NR with the open below the previous bar's low and the close above the previous bar's close.

Bull Hook: An NR with the open above the previous bar's high and the close below the previous bar's close.

Stretch: The 10-session average of the smaller open-to-extreme distance, open to high or open to low. It sets the distance for an ORB or ORBP entry and stop.

The pattern forms yesterday; the trade is taken in the next session. 

ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A trade at a preset distance off the opening range. The first side to trade is the position.

ORBP (Opening Range Breakout Preference): The same trade, taken in one chosen direction only.

Stretch is the entry distance, not a setup. The opening range is the first 30 seconds. A buy stop goes one Stretch above that high and a sell stop one Stretch below that low. On an ORB the first stop filled is the trade and the other stop is the protective stop. On an ORBP only the preferred side is working; if price trades Stretch the other way first, cancel, and place the protective stop only after the fill. Later tests in the book often used a fixed distance off the open and flattened on that day's close so every test shared one number. The operating rule is Stretch off the opening range.

NR, NR4, NR5, and NR7 do not pick a side. Take a two-sided ORB the next day. NR7 is the case he tested bar by bar: entry off the open, out on the close, and those trades beat an ORB taken on any day. ID is the same two-sided ORB, unless the market is already running, in which case drop the against-trend stop and take ORBP with the run. IDnr4 is the preferred case. It beat ID alone, NR4 alone, and an ORB on any day, and it is best when it ends a run of closes already pointing one way. 2BNR, 3BNR, 4BNR, and 8BNR are the same idea over a longer rest. Crabel defines all four. The longer the congestion, the more it is a springboard. He did not publish the same tick tests for these as for NR4 and NR7.

Hooks pick the side, so use ORBP. After a Bear Hook, sell only. Do not buy it. The exception is a gap up that holds through mid-session. After a Bull Hook, prefer the buy, and treat it as the weaker of the two. It is better if the next open is below the hook close; once that close is traded, upside continuation is the expectation. A fast move against the bias means stand aside.

WS, WS4, WS5, and WS7 are the expansion the contraction was waiting for, not a fresh setup. WS7 is momentum. An OD is the same class: both sides of the prior bar were already taken out. A True in those rows means the breakout day already happened.

There is no fixed price target. The tested edge is the close of the entry day. A two- or three-day hold is allowed only if that session is already substantially profitable. 

The ideal fill is in the first ten minutes, with the open as one extreme of that thrust. A large move in the first fifteen minutes is an Early Entry, and continuation is the normal case. 

Move the stop to flat within an hour; on the S&P he used five to ten minutes. If price does not leave the entry, the trade is suspect. Scale out with more than one contract and trail the rest. 

A fill late in the day is the worst entry; cut the size as the session ages, or skip it. If you miss the break, one or two entries on a 3/8 to 1/2 retracement of the range already made are allowed, with the stop beyond the 5/8 level. A third retracement is not. 

Whichever side of Stretch trades first is the bias for the next two or three hours, even with no position. Do not fade that first move unless it is against the intermediate trend and the pattern agrees with the trend. 

ES, NQ, YM, BTC, GC, and CL Crabel patterns above are valid from Wednesday, 
October 14, 5:30 p.m. ET through the session that ends Thursday, October 15, at 5:00 p.m. ET.  

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