The DJIA recorded its sixth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of 2026 this week—a signal worth monitoring based on Stock Trader’s Almanac research (2026 ed., p. 78). A DF/DM occurs when the DJIA declines on Friday (or the final trading day of the week) and the following Monday (or first trading day of the next week). While
not a guaranteed sell signal, history shows DF/DMs often mark
inflection points and have frequently preceded weakness within 90
calendar days. Short-term rebounds are common, but many have been
temporary.
The latest DF/DM followed DJIA’s sharp July 17 (Fri) decline, which ended a multiweek advance amid technology and semiconductor weakness, geopolitical concerns, and rising oil prices. Monday’s attempted dip-buying rebound failed, leaving open whether current strength is durable or simply another post-DF/DM bounce.
DJIA performance hinges on whether the 51,839.26 DF/DM level holds.
The latest DF/DM followed DJIA’s sharp July 17 (Fri) decline, which ended a multiweek advance amid technology and semiconductor weakness, geopolitical concerns, and rising oil prices. Monday’s attempted dip-buying rebound failed, leaving open whether current strength is durable or simply another post-DF/DM bounce.
Since 2000, the DJIA has experienced 271 DF/DMs. In only 32 cases (11.8%) did the DJIA avoid closing below the Monday DF/DM close over the next 90 days. When that level held, returns were historically stronger; when breached, performance was notably weaker, with limited gains over the following 60 trading days. The key level is Monday's close of 51,839.26. Holding above it would suggest this DF/DM may be a temporary setback; a close below it would increase the historical risk of further weakness.
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