November through April has historically been the Best Six-Month Stretch, rising 77% of the time for an average gain of +7.1%.
May through October has historically been the 'Worst Six Months,' rising only 65% of the time, for an average loss of -1.7%. However, this year, investors who "sold in May and went away" missed out on +15.6%, making it one of the strongest 'Worst Six Months.' since 1950. When the S&P 500 rises double digits during its 'Worst Six Months,' the following year has been higher 91% of the time, for an average gain of +13.2%.
Best Six Months of the Year.
May through October has historically been the 'Worst Six Months,' rising only 65% of the time, for an average loss of -1.7%. However, this year, investors who "sold in May and went away" missed out on +15.6%, making it one of the strongest 'Worst Six Months.' since 1950. When the S&P 500 rises double digits during its 'Worst Six Months,' the following year has been higher 91% of the time, for an average gain of +13.2%.
We found 11 other times stocks gained double digits from May through October and the next six months did even better, gaining 10 times and up 13.2% on average, well above the 7.1% average seen in all years.
November is historically the Best Month of the Year.
November is historically a very strong month for stocks. The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in November? 2008. It has been higher 11 of the past 12 years. Best month since 1950, the past decade, and in an election year. The second best month the past 20 years (only July is better).
November, December, and January are historically the Best Three Months of the year for stocks.
November, December, and January are historically the Best Three Months of the year for stocks.
Best Three Months of the Year.
The S&P 500 might be up six months in a row soon, but October still has a few more days. But it is already officially up five months in a row. Historically, the year after a five-month win streak the S&P 500 has been higher 28 out of 29 times and up more than 10% on average.
The fun doesn’t stop just yet, as when stocks gain ten of eleven months (like now) they are higher a year later nine out of ten times and up nearly 15% on average. In other words, this blast of strength we’ve seen isn’t a reason to turn bearish. In fact, it might be a reason to remain in the glass half full camp as we head into 2025.
Up 10 of 11 Months Is Also Bullish.
We might be past the beginning of the bull market, but by no means does that mean it is done. Going back 50 years, we found there were five other bull markets that made it past their second birthday. Wouldn’t you know it, the worst any of them did was lasting another three years (which happened twice).
Meanwhile, the average bull lasted eight years and gained 288% when all was said and done. No one knows how long this bull will last, but the bottom line is history says be open to this bull market lasting much longer than probably most expect.
Meanwhile,
the average bull lasted eight years and gained 288% when all was said
and done. No one knows how long this bull will last, but the bottom line
is history says be open to this bull market lasting much longer than
probably most expect.
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