Thursday, February 21, 2013

S&P 500 and DAX vs Intermediate Delta Cycle

According to the Delta-pundits (Wilder, Rosen, Copan, etc.) Inversions of the Intermediate Delta Pattern (ITD = 4 Lunar Month Cycle) only occur between the 'Red Full Moon' and the 'Blue Full Moon' (see colored vertical lines and the reddish time-frames in the first chart & HERE).

ITD #5 occurs around 'blue' New Moons (= grey vertical between blue and yellow verticals). 4 months ago ITD #5 printed 1 TD before New Moon. What was it before the last New Moon? Should it be considered a high, a low, the end of a sideways-consolidation, the end of a triangle (equivalent to a low)? If the latter is correct, no inversion occurred in the 4 Lunar Month Pattern (see pink dashed line), and we should again be at or near a low. A sideways-to-up movement into March 4 (+/- 2TD max) should follow. Very likely it will be a lower high.

However, the DAX obviously did invert around the last 'Blue Full Moon', but then somehow re-adjusted again to the pattern traced 4 Lunar Months back (pink dashed line is shifted 118 CD into the future). If this is correct, also the DAX should now move sideways-to-up into early March. 

A major low in US stock indices is due early to mid-March (9 Month Cycle), and should be followed by another advance to higher-highs during the second quarter. A correction could take place end of March - early April. But the Spring Rally is a very stable annual pattern, even present during bad years, e.g. 2007 and 2008. Usually equities indices rise into the April 23 - May 5 time frame.