Larry Williams presented a free session at the November 2014 Las Vegas Traders Expo in which he discussed 8 possible Range Patterns. He showed that from any bar to the next there are only 4 possible outcomes:
- Down Range: Last Bar's high is lower than prior Bar's high; and last Bar's low is lower than prior Bar's low.
- Up Range: Last Bar's high is higher than prior Bar's high; and last Bar's low is higher than prior Bar's low.
- Inside Range: Last Bar's high is lower than prior Bar's high; and last Bar's low is higher than prior Bar's low. On a Daily S&P500 Chart this occurs approximately 12% of the time.
- Outside Range: Last Bar's high is higher than the prior Bar's high; and Bar's low is lower than the prior Bar's low. On a Daily S&P500 Chart this occurs approximately 12% of the time.
Price action cannot occur in any other way. Within these 4 Range Patterns each last bar can either be an up bar or a down bar. So there are actually 8 possible Range Patterns:
1. Down Range, Down Day
2. Down Range, Up Day
3. Up Range, Down Day
4. Up Range, Up Day
5. Inside Range, Down Day
6. Inside Range, Up Day
7. Outside Range, Down Day
8. Outside Range, Up Day
Using these 8 patterns some powerful strategies can be created. Larry Williams presented back-tested statistics associated with trading these patterns using a simple entry and exit technique. He stressed that they were not the best entry or exit techniques but shown because they were easy to understand and program. This strategy is intended only to show where we have a bias or advantage in the marketplace.
- Entry: At market close
- Stop Loss: Based on $ Stop
- Exit: First Profitable Opening
His message was that we could go home and verify using our own software. His results for testing this on the e-mini S&Ps from 2002 forward [to 2015] were as follows:
So, the Down Range, Down Close day [1.] offers the best potential short term 'long' setup based on net profit. This was the take-home message of the presentation.
Larry further dug into the Down Range, Down Close setup to uncover which day of the week offered the best trade: The stats support the 'Turnaround Tuesday' concept.
And further investigating by Trading Day of Month revealed that 1, 17, 19, 22 and 23 were the best days, showing 92% winners and $47,500 net profits with 107 trades.
It was also found that a Down Range Larger Range day was better than a Down Range smaller Range day. $205 Avg 80% Win, vs $33 Avg 85% win,
Also naked close was better than a covered close (naked close meaning that the close was outside of the previous day’s range). $155 Avg 83% Win vs $30 Avg 83% Win
And combining these two concepts:
Down Range, larger range, Covered close: $60 Avg, 83% Winners
Down Range, larger range, Naked close: $215 Avg, 85% Winners
References: