Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of GDI | 1925 - 2016

Total market capitalization (TMC) of the stock market as a percent of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is 126%, the second highest in 100 years, only exceeded by 164% just prior to the 2000 tech bubble. This highlights the extreme extent of stock market distortion, which can largely be attributed to artificially low interest rates. Because stocks are an unusually large percentage of the economy, a stock market correction would undoubtedly stunt economic growth. Because the market is so high relative to GDI, corrections will have a greater negative impact on the economy. Furthermore, this ratio's lofty level illustrates just how overbought the stock market is in general, signaling the potentially precarious state of the markets (Chart: Ned Davis Research).