My Forecast for the Rest of 2026 | Larry Williams

US equities face near-term downside pressure and range-bound volatility amid poor breadth. Deteriorating internals—seen in the divergence between a strong NASDAQ, moderately strong S&P 500, and weak Dow and Russell 2000—suggest capital is rotating from quality blue chips into speculation, a pattern that has historically preceded broader sell-offs.

A major synchronized cyclical low and buying opportunity across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell is projected around Tuesday, October 27, ahead of the US presidential election. At the trough, focus capital on the index showing the strongest relative strength and greatest resistance to selling pressure during the decline.

Reference:

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026. 

  

S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Oct 27 (Tue) opens the midterm stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), 2026, up in 22 of 24

midterm years (91.67%, avg. +2.6%, med. +3.2%). Misses: 1930 (−12.6%) and 1994 (−0.3%).  

 DJIA.

Russell 2000. 

 

 NASDAQ.

Detrended seasonal cycles isolate short-term periodic signals by removing longer-term trends, preventing distortion and enabling precise measurement of amplitude and timing.

See also:

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

TPR (September 29, 2026) - S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

 Wayne Whaley (August 2, 2025) - 17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.