The Dow Jones reached its peak in the Hurst 40-Week Cycle as expected on Friday, October 3, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their highs on Thursday, October 9. This marks the likely high for 2025. 
In the S&P 500, the breakdown on Friday, October 10, expanded to four times the average true range of the past 20 trading days, erasing the lows of the previous three weeks in a sharp, 7-hour move down to August's high. The index closed down 3.36% on the highest volume since August 1, while the NASDAQ dropped 4.24% and the DJIA fell 2.44%.
Schematic Hurst 40-Week Cycle in the S&P 500 (daily bars; April 7, 2025 to January 1, 2026). Please note that, in any composite or summation of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles become troughs in the resulting summation curve (thick black line).
The 20-Day Cycle Low is projected to occur between October 10-13 (Friday to Monday), followed by a brief 2-3 day bounce. Afterward, the market is expected to continue its downward trajectory into the next nominal 20-Day, 40-Day, and 80-Day Cycle Lows around October 24-27 (Friday to Monday).
A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.
A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.
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