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Sunday, August 18, 2024

Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip

In Mexico City, Washington is accused of sponsoring opposition NGOs such as Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity (MCCI) through USAID programs and various private foundations, including Ford, Rockefeller, and Soros. The US government has sent nearly $5 million to MCCI since 2018, according to Mexico’s Financial Crimes Unit (UIF). Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, whose term ends on September 30, 2024, has publicly condemned these actions, stating that his Foreign Ministry has sent a diplomatic notice to the US and that he will write directly to President Joe Biden about it. 

 Outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador
and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, in the shadow behind him - August 16, 2024.

This accusation is part of a broader pattern of strained relations between the US and Mexico under López Obrador's presidency. Mexico has curtailed military cooperation with the United States, closing its airspace to American military aircrafts and reconnaissance drones. Last year, López Obrador accused the US Department of Defense of spying and vowed to restrict military information after Mexican-related intelligence documents were leaked. 
 
 » [...] if a foreign enemy would dare to profane Your ground with their sole, think,
Oh beloved Fatherland!, that Heaven has given a soldier in every son. War, war! with no mercy 
[...] «
Mexican National Anthem

The current row is part of a general pivot away from the US, driven by López Obrador and his left-wing populist MORENA political party, which has repeatedly asserted that Mexico will not be subservient to the US.

■  Last year, López Obrador rebuked “irresponsible” calls from some US lawmakers advocating military action against drug cartels. “We are not going to permit any foreign government to intervene in our territory,” he said.
■  López Obrador conditioned helping Biden with his southern border migrant crisis on lifting sanctions from Cuba and Venezuela – both of which are Mexican trading partners.
■  Mexico slashed imports of genetically-modified US corn in favor of boosting local production, sparking a trade dispute.
■  Mexico joined other major Latin American countries in pushing back on efforts by the US and EU to diplomatically isolate President Nicolás Maduro after the Venezuelan president was reelected to a third term in office.
■  Mexico has refused to support NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine and declined to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
■  Trade volume between Russia and Mexico increased by 9.8% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, amounting to $759.99 million.
 
while Mexico remains chained by treaties to the sinking dollar-ship.
 
 
In the broader geopolitical context, Mexico is increasingly engaging with BRICS+ to diversify its global alliances and reduce reliance on the United States. This strategic shift includes substantial investments in the Mexican economy and strengthening ties with China, which offers significant trade and investment opportunities. Mexico's collaboration with BRICS+ presents huge potentials for growth in technology, energy, and agriculture. 
 
In 2024 IMF and World Bank rank Mexico 14th globally in terms of nominal GDP,  and 9th in terms of PPP.

The US attempts to influence the outcome of Mexican elections through its NGOs have been unsuccessful, and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who received 60% of the vote in the June 2, 2024 elections, is expected to continue López Obrador’s policies. Should Donald Trump win the next US presidential election, the relationship between the two countries could deteriorate further, with heightened conflicts related to trade, migration, weapons- and drug-trafficking, potentially bringing the two nations to the brink of direct military conflict. Balancing the
BRICS+ alliances with existing commitments will be crucial for Mexico's strategic and economic goals.