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Monday, August 12, 2024

After +10% January-July and a Negative First Half of August | Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 15.8% in the first 7 months (January-July) of 2024 and, as of August 11, is down 3.2% in August. The S&P has a history of going counter trend in August with early August weakness after a strong year tending to strengthen the case for a bullish finish. For example, since 1950, there have been 16 years in which a double digit, first seven months of the year (January-July) was followed by a negative first two weeks of August.


The following August 14-January time frame was 14-2 in this setup for an average 5 1/2 months gain of 9.34%. The 5% moves were 12-0 to the positive with the worst drawdown as measured from August 14 of the single digit variety.

The weakest period, on average, was September 23-October 2 which was 6-10 for an average loss of 0.90%. The strongest time frame was October 27-January 20 which was positive in all 16 of those setups for an average, 8 week, gain of 7.27%.

Quoted from:
Wayne Whaley (August 10, 2024) - When a negative 1st two weeks of August is preceded by a +10% January-July.

» After an early August selloff, the market has tended to spend the balance of August bouncing 
around on average with little meaningful progress. The tightening of the presidential election and 
elevated geopolitical tensions are likely to keep a lid on markets through the rest of the “Worst Months. «