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Monday, August 19, 2024

4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024 | Jeff Hirsch

The market continues to follow the trends of our seasonal and 4-year cycle patterns [...] In our July Outlook, we maintained our bullish outlook for 2024, but cautioned that the market was possibly due for some mean reversion (a pullback) once NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally ended in mid-July. NASDAQ did top out on July 10 while DJIA and S&P 500 topped about one week later.

 

The market has recovered in line with Historical Election Year strength in August, but the correction is not likely over. With President Biden stepping aside our Open Field Election Year is back in play. This does not mean we are heading into the red for the year, but it does suggest the market may continue to struggle over the next few months during the seasonal weak period and leading up to this now more uncertain election. [...] Any potential September/October market weakness could set up a solid Q4, End-of-Year Rally, most likely beginning after Election Day [Tuesday, November 5, 2024⁩].