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Monday, June 17, 2024

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration – A Volatility Haven │ Jeff Hirsch

The second Quadruple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week, down 23 times in 42 years. Quad-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 21 years, but down 6 of the last 8.

 

Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Quad-Witching Day is horrendous. 
 

This week has experienced DJIA losses in 28 of the last 34 years with an average performance of –0.83%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 34-year span. S&P 500 averaged –0.49%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. Sizable gains in 2021 and 2022 during the week after improved historical average performance notably.

 
NASDAQ 100 (30 m candles)
Friday, June  14 = Buy Day
Monday, June 17 = Sell Day (= sell short positions)
Week # 3/1 in the 3 Week Cycle
XAMD Week (X = Monday Continuation of Friday's direction - A = Tuesday Accumulation 
- M = Wednesday Manipulation Low, Reset for Continuation into Friday High
- D = Thursday Distribution = June 20 Full Moon/Summer Solstice High?)
or Consolidation Midweek (M) Rally?

See also: