Time ▾ Price ▴ Research: S&P 500 November Seasonality in Midterm Election Years

Expect the S&P to rally from a late-October low into around Nov 11 (Wed), decline into
Nov 19–23 (Thu–Mon), then rebound into month-end. Direction matters more than level.

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for November 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years;

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

► November ranks 5th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +1.0%).
● In Midterm Election Years it ranks 2nd (avg. +2.2%).
● In the years ending in 6 it ranks 4th (avg. +1.4%).
● November was up in 61 of 98 years (62.24%, avg. +1.0%, med. +1.6%).
● Midterm Election Year November was up in 21 of 24 (87.50%, avg. +2.0%, med. +2.2%).
► Nov 16 (Mon) through Nov 20 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 49 of 98 years (50.00%).
● Midterm Election Years: 10 of 24 were up (41.67%, avg. −0.3%, med. −0.3%).

Q4 2026 Midterm Election Year Stretch.

► Oct 27 (Tue), 2026 opens the Midterm Election Year stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), up in 20 of 24 Midterm Election Years (83.33%, avg. +2.3%, med. +3.1%). The misses were 1930, −11.2%; 1978, −2.7%; 1994, −1.6%; and 2002, −0.8%.
● Election day is Nov 3 (Tue).
● The November piece, from the October close through Nov 10 (Tue), was up in 19 of 24 (79.17%, avg. +1.7%, med. +1.8%).
► Nov 26 (Thu) is Thanksgiving. The stock and bond markets are closed.
● From the session before through the Friday after, Nov 25 (Wed) to Nov 27 (Fri), was up in 72 of 97 years (74.23%, avg. +0.3%, med. +0.6%). The Friday was closed in 1929.
► November through April the following year, from the October close to the April close, was up in 69 of 98 years (70.41%, avg. +5.2%, med. +5.4%).