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Sunday, October 26, 2025

US Economy: A Closed-Loop Scam And AI-Bubble About to Pop? | Bloomberg

The entire US economy right now seems to be seven companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other. This isn't a joke. This is actually real, and the AI scam is going to come crashing down. Soon?

The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025.
The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025. 
 
Sooner or later. A Bloomberg diagram (see above on the right) reveals trillions in circular AI deals among tech giants like Nvidia ($4.5T market cap), Microsoft ($3.9T), and OpenAI ($500B valuation). Examples include Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle's $300 billion cloud partnership. This interconnected funding, detailed in Bloomberg's October 8, 2025, report, has fueled a $1 trillion AI market and $192.7 billion in 2025 Venture Capital investments. However, as these mutual deals lack broad economic productivity gains, they raise concerns about a potential bubble.
 
The "Magnificent 7" make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500.
  
The "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta , Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500 and have driven most of the index’s recent performance. As of October 26, 2025, their combined market capitalization exceeds $21 trillion, highlighting their outsized global influence. Nvidia leads the group with a $4.535 trillion market cap, driven by AI chip demand, with Apple and Microsoft close behind in the $3.9 trillion range. While Tesla has the lowest capitalization in the group, its explosive one-year growth reflects optimism around EVs and autonomy despite recent volatility.

» We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say: 'Please, please, it’s
too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!' And I’ll reply—'No, it isn’t! 
We have to keep winning, we have to win more!' «
 Circus Maximus Ringmaster Narcissus during his presidential election campaign in October 2024.
 
The group's average trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 70 is significantly higher than the S&P 500's average of about 25, signaling substantial bubble risks. Nvidia’s P/E of 53.22 and Tesla’s extremely high 303.30 suggest a premium pricing based on lofty future growth expectations. However, forward P/E ratios, such as Alphabet’s 23.31, indicate potential P/E compression if growth moderates. Alphabet leads the group with a 60.44% one-year return, fueled by ad revenue and AI integrations like Gemini. Tesla's 66.51% one-year gain stands out but is contrasted by a -3.40% daily drop, tied to recent production updates. Year-to-date, Nvidia (+38.73%) and Alphabet (+37.75%) are the top performers, while Amazon (+2.20%) and Apple (+5.32%) have cooled amid broader market rotations.

  
US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.

US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.
 
» As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. « Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025.
»
As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and
not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. «
Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025