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Saturday, October 19, 2024

S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 24.23% in 2023 and, as of October 19th, is up 22.95% in 2024. Barring a 10% correction in the last two months of this year, the S&P is positioned to post back-to-back double-digit years for the 25th time since 1930, which is the starting point of my S&P database.

 
Since 1930, the S&P has had 65 winning years out of 95 (68.4%), with an average annual gain of 7.9%. After back-to-back double-digit years, it has recorded 13 wins and 11 losses, with an average annual gain of 2.9%. Notably, since 1950, January results have been 7-12, with the last four being negative. The nine prior cases highlighted in yellow represent post-election years, where the S&P was 4-5, with an average gain of 1.5%.

There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.