The Bull Market is still intact but wait for a fatter pitch. Ramped of election uncertainty, extended valuations, some big earning misses and a few troubling economic data points helped the worst month of the year deliver an opening blow. Fund managers tend to sell under-performers, restructure portfolios and window dress ahead of the end of Q3. Also a tough month in election years.
Sep 03 (Tue) = High | Sep 09-10 (Mon-Tue) = Low | Sep 12 (Thu) = High
Sep 18 (Wed) = Low | Sep 20 (Fri) = High | Sep 26-27 (Thu-Fri) = Low
[STA Aggregate Cycle = Combo Of All Years]
There have been some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. The week after [September 20, 2024 (Fri)] Quadruple Witching has been brutal, S&P 500 down 27 of the last 34, averaging a loss of 1.06%. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all dropped 4% or more.
September Weakness & October-phobia loom large. Bullish election forces at play, but September-October are the worst months of the election years. Lack of clarity about economy, election and Fed’s next move. Expect chop and sideways action over next several weeks w/ a likely test of the lows. This should set up the Q4/post-election rally. So be patient and be ready for the fatter pitch later in Q3 or early Q4.