In the mid-1980s tech’s influence in the market began to grow and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally.
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This 12-day run has been up 30 of the past 39 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 12.
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After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fourteen years, up twelve times with two losses. After struggling in the bear market of 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly rebounded last year to gain 4.1% compared to a total July gain of 4.0%.
Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 24, 2024) - Christmas In July: Tech Weakness Setting Up NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 24, 2024) - Christmas In July: Tech Weakness Setting Up NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally.
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