On Wednesday, May 15, 2024, the S&P closed at 5308.15 which was a new All Time High. Given that 50% type Bear Markets can take years to erase, I often fancy '12 Month High' as to 'All Time High' scans as they capture the same market characteristics while providing a larger sample size.
Since 1950, there have been 27 prior years of those 74 in which a High for the rolling year was set in May. In those 27 cases, the following June-December performance was 23-4 for an avg 7.58%, seven month gain. The 10% moves during the final seven months of those 27 calendar years were 12-0 to the positive side.
Since 1950, there have been 27 prior years of those 74 in which a High for the rolling year was set in May. In those 27 cases, the following June-December performance was 23-4 for an avg 7.58%, seven month gain. The 10% moves during the final seven months of those 27 calendar years were 12-0 to the positive side.
The fall rally I reference is Aug25-Dec8 with 26 wins after a May High vs on fractional loss. The scan deemed June21-July01 as the weakest period with a 12-14 mark for a modest 0.26% avg loss.