Tianbao Zhou, Xinghao Li & Peng Wang (2021) - Stock indices proved to be rather predictable to some extent. Therefore, according to the study, investors can invest in ETFs that belong to the indices as an ETF is completely coincidental with the index it belongs to. Furthermore, ETFs provide investors with a variety of options of risk and profit. The Shanghai ETF is smooth whereas the Second Board 50 Fund fluctuates a lot. Investors are able to get a high profit from individual stocks as well through implementing the results of this study. The correlation between the turning points of indices and the Chinese 24 solar terms was positive (r = 0.9878).
Turning points always occur near solar terms. Through testing n-day extreme points with a different n value, the sharp turns of the trend often happened near the solar terms, and if we choose 4 days as the valid time radius, the probability is about 80%. Investors should be alert for four days before and four days after a solar term. If the price is too high (low), it is more likely to be affected by the coming solar term, and the higher (lower) the price is, the more instability the trend then would have. However, solar terms are not always strong turning points, but they might cause weaker turning points. In other words, solar terms might not cause a sharp reversal of the stock trend; strong turning points were just some exceptions. Usually, the turning points were not that strong but sufficient for medium-term and short-term investors. The alert period provided investors with a good strategy for short-term and medium-term trading. When judging the upcoming reversal, it should be dynamic.
[...] Eight of the Chinese 24 solar terms are very prominent, namely, Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24), which represent the most vigorous time-points in each season and are the most important four solar terms; the other four are Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Ligiu (15) and Lidong (21). These four represent the beginning of each season and are the second important four solar terms.
To our surprise, the importance of these eight solar terms exactly coincides with the wheel of the cycle theory in Gann theory. In Gann’s wheel, the most important four angles are 90°, 180°, 270° and 360° (0°), and the corresponding time-points of each year are exactly the four solar terms of Chunfen (6), Xiazhi (12), Qiufen (18) and Dongzhi (24). The second important four angles, 45°, 135°, 225° and 315° exactly correspond to the four solar terms of Lichun (3), Lixia (9), Liqiu (15) and Lidong (21). Regardless of the angle in Gann theory or solar terms, they all point to a common rule, that is, the stock trend is most likely to turn at these eight points. We can summarize the above results as follows: variable or more significant extreme points often occur at the solar term point, and the solar term point usually makes the stock trend turn according to its strength, and the turning strength is large or small.
[...] the Chinese traditional culture, human society is affected by natural factors at every moment, and one of the factors is time (including the time cycle, time-points and time periods). Despite the fact that the absolute price of a stock is generally supposed to be unpredictable, the turning points and reversal of trend of stock indices have rules to follow.
Gann theory suggests that the cycle of time is almost everywhere in the stock market, like our pulse cycle and four seasons of the year. Nobody denies the existence of the time cycle as it retains its rationality and regularity in the nature. Whether or not we know, the regular shocks and vibrations in the stock market caused by time do happen.
[...] we only analyzed the trend and turning points of the Shanghai Index rather than a certain stock or an absolute stock price. We supposed that the index is a wide and general performance of the stock market which eliminates many extreme and irregular cases. Many theories have focused on calendar effects, and all of them show the effort in searching for the independent time factors over regular human factors that may affect the stock market. However, such a division of time is so modern that the turns do not always fall on them.
[...] we only analyzed the trend and turning points of the Shanghai Index rather than a certain stock or an absolute stock price. We supposed that the index is a wide and general performance of the stock market which eliminates many extreme and irregular cases. Many theories have focused on calendar effects, and all of them show the effort in searching for the independent time factors over regular human factors that may affect the stock market. However, such a division of time is so modern that the turns do not always fall on them.
Besides the solar terms, in China, we have 12 zodiacs (corresponding to a 12-year cycle), lunar months (corresponding to the monthly change of the moon), 10 heavenly stems and 12 earthly branches as well as the constellation of both the Chinese version and the Western version. Thus,
we can see that throughout the history, ancient people were always
doing tremendous work in summarizing many kinds of time cycles in order
to survive, forecast and develop their civilization.
As early as the Spring and Autumn Period (770–476 BC), Chinese ancestors had already established two major solar terms, ri nan zhi (日南至 'Sun South Most') and ri bei zhi (日北至 'Sun North Most'). As of the end of the Warring States Period (475–221 BC), eight key solar terms (Start of Spring, Vernal Equinox, Start of Summer, Summer Solstice, Start of Autumn, Autumnal Equinox, Start of Winter and Winter Solstice) marking the four seasons, were established according to the different positions of the sun and changes in natural phenomena. The rest of the solar terms were initiated in the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC–24 AD). Hence most terms refer to the climate of Xi'an, capital of the Han Dynasty.
[...] The 24 solar terms in each year and their links accurately fitted the trend of the stock in that year. Using 24 price data-points instead of nearly 250 daily data-points of the whole year could make the daily data of high frequency more concise and easier to process. With 250 high-frequency daily data-points, there is strong volatility, which leads to the obvious heteroscedasticity of the data and increases the complexity of data analysis.
The use of 24 solar terms instead of annual data also greatly reduces this unstable and irregular fluctuation. This also coincides with Gann theory. The forecast of future trends in the all-terms group and the eight-terms group was precise, but there remained a gap with the absolute price. We were only able to forecast the time-points and the turning points; as for the absolute price, we hardly made it. This is because the stock market involves a great deal of instability and is extremely complicated.
[...] as we were inspired by Gann, Elliott and the Chinese 24 solar terms, we would rather look for those that do not change, and that is the key to have a better understanding and cognition of our real world, of course, including the stock market. For this reason, it is the higher dimensional time factor and time cycle that produce an overwhelming impact on the stock market, so it reminds us of taking into account the importance of time when conducting such a study. That is why Gann summarized a tremendous amount of time periods to inform the possible reversal in the capital market while the ancient Chinese figured out 24 divisions of a year as 24 solar terms which all solely point to time.
In addition, the ancient Chinese elaborated a complex system, and there are actually many other divisions of time, years, months, etc. in the Chinese culture. For example, the ten heavenly stems and the twelve earthly branches decide what a year would be like, and that is a 60-year cycle as there are 60 different combinations of one out of the ten heavenly stems with one out of the twelve earthly branches. By the way, one combination is called Gengzi, which is supposed to be the year of disasters and conflicts; the latest Gengzi year was 2020.
See also:
W.D. Gann (1949) - 45 Years in Wall Street.
W.D. Gann (1949) - 45 Years in Wall Street.
