The indicator is simply the difference in "Smart Money" confidence versus "Dumb Money" Confidence. If the Dumb Money Confidence is at 100%, then that means that these bad market timers are supremely confident in a market rally. And history suggests that when these traders are confident, we should be very, very worried that the market is about to decline. When the Dumb Money Confidence is at 0%, then from a contrary perspective we should be [buying stocks], expecting these traders to be wrong again and the market to rally. Buying the market the day this indicator flashes green, and simply holding long for three months, makes money 95% of the time (Jason Goepfert @sentimentrader). |
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