The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.
- The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
- It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
- This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
- The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
- The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.