HighRev [Sep. 9th, 2012]: The 47 Year Cycle and the 35.21 Three Year Cycle are variations of the Kitchin Cycle. "I was originally working with a
rough 7 year cycle working off the momentum lows on the technicals using
the 2002-2003 lows and the 2008-2009 lows as my principal reference
points, but that did not backtest well. As a result I started looking at the 4 Year Kitchin Cycle (which is really a 41 month cycle) that had failed in the late 1940’s, and when it revived, it was out of step with its previous cycle framework. In shifting the Kitchin cycle and using the 1932 low as the start date, the results were also lackluster.
Since I wanted something that would tie in the 1932 low with the 2002 and 2009 lows, and also be fairly reliable in between, I discarded the Kitchin Cycle and started looking at variations. As a result, I came up with this “35.21 Three Year Cycle”, which in turn became the basis for the larger cycles and sub-cycles.
I especially like the early cycle lows matching price lows, mid-cycle lows sometimes seeing inversions in a strongly trending environment, and late cycle lows oscillating between price lows and price highs. As with all cycles, there’s no such thing as perfection. Sometimes they come early, sometimes they come late, and sometimes they’re on time. The actual 47 year low came late with regards to the idealized low, but only missed by just over a 5% time window when looking at it on a century to century time frame, and that isn’t bad at all for a cycle low (and when looking at the 3 year cycle where there are a good many lows that came as much as 6 months early/late, that “miss” looks even better). Another thing I really like about this cycle is how the longer term 47 year cycle takes into account the two main secular bulls coming out of the 1932 lows. I also got the 1932, 2002, 2009, and a good many other important lows to “line up”, and that, in what I like to call, "a best fit" pattern."