We have now crossed that peak in the current wave — 2007.15 (February 27th, 2007). We can see that the Economic Confidence Model projects out beyond my life expectancy and it will function long after I am gone as it did long before I was born. These 8.6 year waves that reflect the Business Cycle are calculated by taking the per cent of 365 days for that year. For example, 2015.75 produces (.75 x 365) that is 273.75 days into that year = October 1st, 2015. The low for this current economic debacle should be 2011.45 = June 13th, 2011.
The minor mid wave turning points break down as the first leg being 2.15 years or a quarter of the 8.6 year wave. The next quarter wave is typically broken into half again creating two 1.075 year weaves. We can see that in the current wave, the mid-wave turning points were 1908.225 (March 23, 2008) and 2009.3 (March 19th, 2009). Typically, these waves do not produce specific turning points to the day as is the case at the major turning points. This is due to the fact that internally there is yet another layer of activity, the 8.6 month cycle that constitute 6 weeks within each leg of the 8.6 year cycle. Again we see the structure following groupings of 6 units. This 8.6 month level of activity constitutes 37.33 weeks. There is yet another layer beneath this calculated in 8.6 week intervals, followed by still another 8.6 days, hours, minutes and believe it or not seconds.
2002.850 = 2000-Nov-06 (Mon) = Major Low
2005.000 = 2005-Jan-01 (Sat) = High
2006.075 = 2006-Jan-28 (Sat) = Low
2007.150 = 2007-Feb-24 (Sat) = Major High
2008.225 = 2008-Mar-23 (Sun) = Low
2009.300 = 2009-Apr-20 (Mon) = High
2011.450 = 2011-Jun-14 (Tue) = Major Low
2013.600 = 2013-Aug-08 (Thu) = High
2014.675 = 2014-Sep-04 (Thu) = Low
2015.750 = 2015-Oct-01 (Thu) = Major High
2016.825 = 2016-Oct-28 (Fri) = Low
2017.900 = 2017-Nov-25 (Sat) = High
2020.050 = 2020-Jan-19 (Sun) = Major Low
2022.200 = 2022-Mar-15 (Tue) = High
2023.275 = 2023-Apr-11 (Tue) = Low
2024.350 = 2024-May-07 (Tue) = Major High
2025.425 = 2025-Jun-05 (Thu) = Low
2026.500 = 2026-Jul-02 (Thu) = High
2028.650 = 2028-Aug-25 (Fri) = Major Low
The Economic Confidence Model
(ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking
capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective
of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable
economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.
- The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
- It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
- This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
- The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
- The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.
See also: