Sunday, January 28, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs Eurodollar COT | Forecast 2018


Here is another Tom McClellan approach to forecast the stock market one year ahead: In the above chart the blue line represents the Commercials' Position Net Long Position in the Eurodollar (COT Report available HERE) as % of Total Open Interest, set forward 54 Weeks. The projection seems to correlate best +/- 2 weeks. About the hows and whys of this indicator, Tom McClellan, the inventor, wrote back in August 2015: "The basic idea is that I take data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report on the commercial traders’ net position in eurodollar futures, and then use that as a leading indication for the SP500.  In this case, the term Eurodollar (ED) refers not to a currency relationship, but rather to dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks. So it is an interest rate futures product [...] I do not know why it works to have the ED COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do. But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here." (HERE) However, he later commented this was one of his "favorite indicators. But favorite does not mean perfect" (HERE).

Saturday, January 27, 2018

DJIA vs Crude Oil Set Forward 10 Years | Major High around June 2018


Tom McClellan's approach projects a major high in US-stocks into around June 2018, and a major low into January 2019 (see also HERE + HERE).

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | February 2018


Upcoming Turn-Days are:
Jan 31 (Wed), Feb 10 (Sat), Feb 11 (Sun), Feb 13 (Tue), Feb 21 (Wed), Feb 27 (Tue), Mar 07 (Wed).

Cosmic Cluster Days | February - March 2018


 Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Jan 29 (Mon), Feb 05 (Mon), Feb 10 (Sat), Feb 15 (Thu), Feb 19 (Mon), Feb 22 (Thu), Feb 28 (Wed), Mar 04 (Sun),
Mar 05 (Mon), Mar 11 (Sun), Mar 12 (Mon), Mar 23 (Fri), Mar 24 (Sat), Apr 13 (Fri).
Previous CCDs are HERE
 
The assumption is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Cosmic Noise Channel


Review of S&P 500 Index vs Cosmic Cluster Days in January 2018 | Preview for February 2018.

SoLunar Map | February - March 2018


Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Jan 31 (Wed), Feb 04 (Sun), Feb 08 (Thu), Feb 11 (Sun), Feb 15 (Thu), Feb 18 (Sun), Feb 23 (Fri), Feb 26 (Mon), Mar 01 (Thu), Mar 05 (Mon), Mar 09 (Fri), Mar 13 (Tue), Mar 16 (Fri), Mar 20 (Tue), Mar 24 (Sat), Mar 28 (Wed), Mar 31 (Sat), Apr 04 (Wed).

Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

The maps above depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month).

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days).

The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. 

 
Review of R2K and NASDAQ 100 vs SoLunar Map in January 2018 | Preview for February 2018.

S&P 500 Index vs True and Mean Lunar Orbital Velocity | February 2018


The Moon moves around the Earth in 27.32166 days or one sidereal period of revolution. As it does this its position changes, relative to the stars. Since there are 360 degrees in a circle, the Moon moves on the average 360 degrees / 27.32166 days = 13.17636 degrees of geocentric longitude per day to the east and relative to the stars (Mean Orbital Speed = red dotted line in the chart). However, this is the Moon’s theoretical mean orbital speed, met only twice for seconds per lunar month. Since the orbit of the Moon is distinctly elliptical it causes variations in the angular speed (True Orbital Speed) as it moves towards and away from the Earth: when closest to the Earth (perigee), the Moon moves faster (up to 16.72 degrees/day), while when furthest (apogee), slower (down to 10.43 degrees/day).

DAX vs SUN 000 MER + MER @ Max Elongation E/W + New and Full Moon


Always worth a look:
The Conjunction of Mercury and the Sun, Mercury's greatest Eastern and Western Elongation, as well as the Full Moon and the New Moon:
       
2018 Jan 02 (Tue) 01:48 = MER max Elong W
2018 Jan 02 (Tue) 03:24 = SUN 180 MOO

 2018 Jan 17 (Wed) 03:15 = SUN 000 MOO
 2018 Jan 31 (Wed) 14:25 = SUN 180 MOO = Total Lunar Eclipse 
2018 Feb 15 (Thu) 22:03 = SUN 000 MOO = Partial Solar Eclipse
2018 Feb 17 (Sat) 13:07 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Mar 02 (Fri) 01:54 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Mar 15 (Thu) 11:08 = MER max Elong E
2018 Mar 17 (Sat) 14:07 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Mar 31 (Sat) 14:37 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Apr 01 (Sun) 19:43 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Apr 16 (Mon) 03:53 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Apr 29 (Sun) 17:15 = MER max Elong W
2018 Apr 30 (Mon) 03:01 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 May 15 (Tue) 13:43 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 May 29 (Tue) 16:20 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Jun 06 (Wed) 03:48 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Jun 13 (Wed) 21:40 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Jun 28 (Thu) 06:54 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Jul 12 (Thu) 05:51 = MER max Elong E
2018 Jul 13 (Fri) 04:48 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Jul 27 (Fri) 22:18 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Aug 09 (Thu) 03:59 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Aug 11 (Sat) 11:58 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Aug 26 (Sun) 13:53 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Aug 26 (Sun) 23:57 = MER max Elong W
2018 Sep 09 (Sun) 20:02 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Sep 21 (Fri) 03:34 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Sep 25 (Tue) 04:53 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Oct 09 (Tue) 05:47 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Oct 24 (Wed) 18:40 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Nov 06 (Tue) 15:45 = MER max Elong E
2018 Nov 07 (Wed) 17:05 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Nov 23 (Fri) 06:40 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Nov 27 (Tue) 10:08 = SUN 000 MER
2018 Dec 07 (Fri) 08:21 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Dec 15 (Sat) 16:35 = MER max Elong W
2018 Dec 22 (Sat) 18:45 = SUN 180 MOO

[ all times calculated for Frankfurt a.M., Germany = CET / CEST ]
[ times in the chart above however are EST / EDT ]

Russell 2000 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle │ High on Lunar Eclipse


Tuesday, January 30 should be a down-day, the Super Blue Blood Moon and Total Lunar Eclipse on Wednesday a high.
If the cycle's polarity remains intact (HERE), a choppy sideways-to-down consolidation of US-stocks into March 13 should follow. Otherwise the consolidation would only last into end of February, and would be followed by a swing up into mid March and swing down into March 28.


Credits: NASA

Sunday, December 31, 2017

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | January 2018


Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jan 04 (Thu), Jan 06 (Sat), Jan 07 (Sun), Jan 17 (Wed), Jan 24 (Wed), Jan 31 (Wed), Feb 10 (Sat).

S&P 500 Index vs Mercury Latitude Cycle | January 2018

Dec 21 (Thu) 06:42 = Mercury Latitude @ MAX
Jan 14 (Sun) 21:36 = Mercury Latitude @ 0°
Feb 11 (Sun) 17:49 = Mercury Latitude @ MIN
Previous charts HERE

Saturday, December 30, 2017

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for the DJIA 2018


W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart is a selective or incomplete Decennial Pattern: Each value of this composite is derived from 6 past price values of the DJIA exactly 80, 60, 40, 30, 20, and 10 years back. Therefore the Mass Pressure Chart and the Decennial Pattern oftentimes look very much the same, and even have identical turning-points. See also HERE

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

DAX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle | December 2017 - January 2018


On October 29 a major high in the DAX was projected to November 7 (15 - 8 - 1). This proved to be true (HERE). Currently the cycle of four lunar phases has a period of 119 days (= 1,440 degrees longitude from August 1 to November 28), and is pointing to an medium term low around December 26 (9 - 6). After a brief recovery (10 - 7), the next major low (16 - 11) is scheduled for late January to early February 2018.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | December 2017

 Upcoming Turn-Days:
Nov 26 (Sun), Nov 30 (Thu), Dec 04 (Mon), Dec 13 (Wed), Dec 21 (Thu), Dec 27 (Wed), Jan 04 (Thu), Jan 06 (Sat), Jan 07 (Sun).

Saturday, November 25, 2017

S&P 500 Index vs Declination Speed | December 2017

Nov 20, 2017 (Mon) 04:04 = Neptune Declination Speed @ 0
Nov 21, 2017 (Tue) 09:05 = Moon Declination Speed @ 0
Nov 23, 2017 (Thu) 07:31 = Mercury Declination Speed @ 0
Nov 29, 2017 (Wed) 07:09 = Moon Declination Speed @ MAX
Dec 04, 2017 (Mon) 18:52 = Moon Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 10, 2017 (Sun) 16:49 = Moon Declination Speed @ MIN
Dec 11, 2017 (Mon) 03:27 = Mercury Declination Speed @ MAX
Dec 18, 2017 (Mon) 16:32 = Moon Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 20, 2017 (Wed) 23:26 = Sun Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 21, 2017 (Thu) 10:56 = Mercury Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 26, 2017 (Tue) 16:45 = Moon Declination Speed @ MAX
Dec 27, 2017 (Wed) 17:51 = Venus Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 28, 2017 (Thu) 09:17 = Saturn Declination Speed @ 0
Dec 31, 2017 (Sun) 00:49 = Uranus Declination Speed @ 0
Jan 01, 2018 (Mon) 03:16 = Mercury Declination Speed @ MIN
Jan 01, 2018 (Mon) 06:55 = Moon Declination Speed @ 0
Jan 06, 2018 (Sat) 21:03 = Moon Declination Speed @ MIN

Cosmic Cluster Days | December 2017 - January 2018

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Dec 09 (Sat), Dec 12 (Tue), Dec 19 (Tue), Dec 23 (Sat), Jan 06 (Sat), Jan 10 (Wed), Jan 29 (Mon), Feb 05 (Mon).
Previous CCDs are HERE

The assumption is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Cosmic Noise Channel


Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days November 2017 | Preview: December 2017

SoLunar Map | December 2017 - January 2018


Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Nov 29 (Wed), Dec 03 (Sun), Dec 07 (Thu), Dec 10 (Sun), Dec 14 (Thu), Dec 18 (Mon), Dec 22 (Fri), Dec 25 (Mon), Dec 29 (Fri), Jan 02 (Tue), Jan 05-06 (Fri-Sat), Jan 09 (Tue), Jan 13 (Sat), Jan 16 (Tue), Jan 20 (Sat), Jan 24 (Wed), Jan 27 (Sat), Jan 31 (Wed), Feb 04 (Sun).

US-Stock Indices are currently following the inverted mode of the lower map.
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

 
The maps above depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). 

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days).

The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

90% Bullish Larry Williams Trading Setup for S&P500 Futures


One of Larry Williams' Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading is about an Outside Day with a down close [Day 1] followed by an Inside Day [Day 2]. This is a very reliable bullish short term trading setup: Bought the next day at the open [Day 3], this setup is profitable in the S&P500 90% of the time. Expect the ES/Emini to rise above Day 1 (HERE).

Monday, November 6, 2017

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | November 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days:
Nov 08 (Wed), Nov 17 (Fri), Nov 21 (Tue), Nov 26 (Sun), Nov 30 (Thu), Dec 04 (Mon).

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Russell 2000 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle


Next week the solunar bias for stocks remains positive. However, in the Russell 2000 Index the net outcome could be almost neutral, since the continuation of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle would suggest the following choppy market action: Oct 23 (Mon) dip-down, close near opening; Oct 24 (Tue) from morning high above Monday close, down for the rest of the day - possibly to low of the week; Oct 25 (Wed) up; Oct 26 (Thu) from morning high of the week, sideways-to-down to low above Tuesday; Oct 27 (Fri) sideways. Heavy Cosmic Clusters will be modulating the geomagnetic field during this current weekend, and preparing for a mixed mood setup next week (Oct 21 = MER par NEP, MER 150 URA, NEP 045 EAR, SAT 120 EAR - all heliocentric; Oct 22 = SUN into SCO, MAR into LIB, and MER cp JUP, MER cp SAT, VEN 000 MAR, VEN 180 NEP - heliocentric). On Oct 26 (Thu), Jupiter will conjunct the Sun, and from a heliocentric perspective the Earth will be opposing Jupiter, and Venus trining Pluto. US-stock indices are in the latter stage of the first and very bullish 10 Week Cycle within the 40 Week Cycle that started with the Solar Eclipse from the August 21 major low. This cycle may peak as late as Oct 30 (Mon), and is expected to bottom in early November. Afterwards the main indices should rise to new highs.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

S&P 500 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle | "Higher Monday; lower into Wednesday"


Barry Rosen predicts: "Lower Sunday; higher Monday; lower into Wednesday."
Difficult to spot, but this matches the projection of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle.

S&P 500 Index vs Venus Latitude @ MAX | Oct 22 (Sun)

The latitude of Venus will reach a temporary maximum at +1.54205 degrees on Sunday, October 22.
This usually corresponds to short term changes in stocks (± 1-2 TD).

S&P 500 Index vs Mercury Latitude @ 0° | Oct 18-19 (Wed-Thu)


On Wednesday, October 18 after the market session, Mercury's latitude will reach 0 degrees.
Thursday will be a New Moon, and the Sun opposing Uranus. The solunar bias for stocks will be positive (= sideways-to-up) from Monday into Friday. Wednesday and Thursday are Cosmic Cluster Days.
Monday, Wednesday and Thursday would be short term reversal days.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

DJIA Forecast 2017 vs Actual & Outlook into 2027 | Thomas Bulkowski


On January 1, 2017 Thomas Bulkowski presented a forecast for the DJIA in 2017 (middle chart). Comparing this forecast with the actual DJIA (top chart), he now remarks on October 14: "Notice that peak A comes well before B, and it's higher than B, too. Bad timing. The index dipped and has recovered up to C, nearly matching the prediction. Here's where the ride gets scary. Notice how the market drops, and fast, too, after C. That's about a 1,500 point drop in a month. Ouch. This forecast isn't guessing. It's based on what has happened in prior years. Click the above link for more details. However, just because it's a mechanical forecast doesn't make it right. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next four weeks."

Also on January 1, 2017 he published a forecast for the DJIA covering a decade of price movement into 2027 (lower chart): "The vertical magenta lines show important turns. Price is fine during most of 2017 until the Dow peaks in October. Then the big decline starts in what looks to be a bear market lasting to 2019. Then we get a nice run up which continues until at least 2027."

Friday, October 13, 2017

NDX, RUT and SPX vs SoLunar Map | Mid-Month Review & Preview

The high in the S&P500 on Oct 12 (Thu) coincided with a high in the SoLunar Map,
and the solunar bias into Oct 16 (Mon) is sideways-to-down.
But looking at the R2K and NDX: did they perform a high or a low?
Anyway, Oct 14 (Sat) will be a Cosmic Cluster Day, and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri; New Moon = Oct 19), Oct 23 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps can be found HERE

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Value Line Geometric Composite Index | Breaking Above 1998 High

While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon,
some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss.
Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE)

No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017
Source: macrotrends
US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average
Source: PCA

Sunday, October 1, 2017

George Marechal's Stock Market Forecast 1933 to 1948 │ Law of the Market

In 1933 the incoming U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt reached out to Roger Ward Babson for a long range forecast for the stock markets. Babson, a very successful entrepreneur, economist, business theorist, investor, and philantroph with a huge fortune, was a household name since he had predicted, back on September 5th 1929, that "a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". Later that very same day the stock market on Wall Street declined by 3% and this became known as the "Babson Break". The big crash with most catastrophic losses followed on October 24 and 29, 1929 (Black Thursday and Black Tuesday). When the U.S. finally reached the height of the Great Depression in 1932 and the stock market was at an all-time low, 75% of its value was wiped out, and shares in any company were virtually worthless. Thousands of people were ruined, and soup kitchens sprang up on street corners as people lost their jobs, savings and homes. 

To comply with President Roosevelt’s demand, Babson in turn consulted the largely unknown Canadian mathematician George Marechal, who recently had managed to work out how the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Index repeated themselves in predetermined sequences. So finally it was Marechal who produced a Dow Jones Index Forecast Chart over the next 15 years for the Roosevelt administration, that proved to be spectacularly accurate. So confident was Marechal in his prediction at the time that he had his chart copyrighted. His friend Alan H. Andrews (the inventor of Andrews’ Pitchfork) described it as a "chart no government economist, no college professor has enough knowledge to even approach or courage to try to duplicate.

Comparison of Marechal's 1933 forecast with actual data of the Dow Jones Index from 1934 through April 1951
[published by Garfield A. Drew and Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

Edward R. Dewey confirmed in 1962 that still little to nothing was known of Marechal's method, though a fund manager had offered him $20,000 for his secrets, or, alternatively, to operate a five million dollar fund on the basis of these secrets and to share profits. But Marechal did not accept either offer, and finally died at the age of 90 without ever revealing how he was able to calculate market movements with such uncanny accuracy. However, what is clear is that he was using a version of Babson's Normal Line. The annotations to his chart later added by his friend Alan Andrews show that Marechal plotted turns with what are now known as Median Lines. Dewey concluded:
"The important thing about this study [chart of Marechal] is not the exact precision by which it came true, or the amount of money you would or would not have made if you had followed it. The important thing is that it shows that the market has predictable patterns. In other words, that the seeming disorder of market fluctuations really is subject to law, and that this law is learnable."
In 1948 Garfield A. Drew, another friend of Marechal, reproduced the forecast in his book "New Methods For Profit in the Stock Market". Drew stated that one of the original copies of the forecast had been in his possession since 1935, and as each year was divided into six parts he added in his book the actual fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages by plotting the high and low for each two-month period. Drew commented on the famous chart:
"Clearly, the pattern of the forecast and the actual pattern of the market miss many times in detail and exact timing. Nevertheless, the broad picture of the trends from 1934 through 1947, at least, is remarkably similar. The basic downtrend from 1936-37 to 1942 is plain, and likewise the uptrend from 1942 to 1946, although the latter shows up as a much more zigzag pattern in the forecast than was actually the case. Thus, the year 1944 by itself, for example, appears as a down period, whereas it was really an up year. When the year 1947 ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had spent 16 months within a 16% price range. As far as the situation at the time the comparison in [the figure] ends is concerned, it is evident that, if the broad accuracy of the preceding 14 years is to be maintained, 1948 must, on the whole, witness a rising price level. A definite down trend going substantially into new low territory by the year-end would produce a greater discrepancy between the forecast pattern and the actual course of prices than at any other time in the record. The fact remains to be seen at this writing, but, in line with his original forecast made years before, Marechal always insisted that 1946-47 was not a "bear market" but an interruption in a long upward trend comparable to the break and market hesitancy during 1926 in the long upswing from 1921 to 1929.
"In this figure the Dow Jones Averages are plotted from 1897 through 1962. On this chart are a number
of "resistance" lines. The original worksheets for Marechal's forecast look just about like this chart,
except that there were a great many more lines and, thus, a great many more intersecting points.
Marechal's secrets consist fundamentally of how to draw the resistance lines and how to select the
significant intersections"
[Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].