Wednesday, April 5, 2023

ICT Weekly Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

The Weekly Economic News Calendar is your Treasure Map: Weekly profile templates are practically useless if you’re not taking macroeconomic events—and their impact on market volatility—into account. 
 

Analyze the news calendar to identify when and where high-probability setups are likely to occur. 
I can't overstate how crucial it is to use the calendar effectively. Developing an understanding of how the week will unfold based on scheduled events doesn’t come overnight—it takes consistent practice and repetition. 

  
The goal is to anticipate market structure before it forms. Once you develop the ability to do this with accuracy, trading becomes significantly easier. And if the market doesn’t align with your expectations? That either means the setup is invalid, or it’s time to adapt your trading plan.

Preparation is 90% of the work. Some may resist this idea, but it’s the reality. If you’re sitting down at the charts each day or week without knowing when you should be engaging with the market, then you're essentially trading blind. Start every week with clarity: know exactly which days and what times you plan to be active. Without this structure, you’ll likely end up glued to your screen, trading aimlessly and without purpose.
 
The following ICT Weekly Range Profiles are conceptual models that describe typical patterns of how prices might behave during a trading week. Each profile has unique characteristics that can guide traders in anticipating potential market movements. However, it’s important to note that these profiles are not rigid predictions but rather frameworks to understand market tendencies. 

(1A) Classic Tuesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Tuesday it drops into Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (HTF PDAs) to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the HTF PDA. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
(1 — B) Classic Tuesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and hover below a higher time frame premium, array. Then on Tuesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame Premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.

 
 
(2A) Wednesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Wednesday it drops into higher time frame discount array to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon one should know the higher time frame Discount Array. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
( 2 B) Wednesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile 
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover below a higher a higher time frame premium array. Then on Wednesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.
 
 
(3A) Consolidation Thursday Bullish Reversal
When price is bullish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week low and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe discount array. And when price fails to drop into higher timeframe discount array then its likely that Thursday will see drive lower on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(3B) Consolidation Thursday Bearish Reversal
When price is bearish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week high and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe premium array. And when price fails to rise into higher timeframe premium array then its likely that Thursday will see drive higher on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(4A) Consolidation Midweek Rally = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bullish and has yet to run to premium array on the higher timeframe and it has recently rallied from a discount array and simply paused without any bearish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand higher for the premium array.
 
 
(4B) Consolidation Midweek Decline = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bearish and has yet to run to discount array on the higher timeframe and it has recently declined from a premium array and simply paused without any bullish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand lower for the premium array.
 
 
(5A) Seek and Destroy Bullish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(5B) Seek and Destroy Bearish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(6A) Wednesday Weekly Bullish Reversal = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives lower into higher timeframe discount array on Wednesday to induce sell stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term low, price will pair institutional buying with pending sell side liquidity (sell stops raid).
 
 
(6B) Wednesday Weekly Bearish Reversal = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives higher into higher timeframe premium array on Wednesday to induce buy stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term high, price will pair institutional selling with pending buy side liquidity (buy stops raid).
 
 
 
The weekly price movement in financial markets follows a recurring pattern of consolidation, expansion, reversal, expansion again, consolidation, and a potential reverse or retracement. For example:
  1. Sunday Open Consolidation: The week often begins with price consolidation on the Sunday open, reflecting a cautious approach as traders assess the weekend developments.
  2. Monday Expansion: As the trading week gains momentum, Monday is typically marked by an expansion phase. This reflects increased activity and movement as traders react to new information.
  3. Tuesday Reversal: The following day, Tuesday, often witnesses a reversal in price trends. This can be attributed to traders reassessing their positions after the initial expansion phase.
  4. Wednesday Expansion: Midweek, the market tends to experience another expansion phase. This reflects a renewed bout of activity and movement in response to evolving market dynamics.
  5. Thursday Consolidation: On Thursday, there’s often a consolidation phase. Price ranges may narrow as traders assess the overall sentiment and prepare for the end of the trading week.
  6. Midweek Friday Reverse or Retrace: As the week approaches its close, Friday may see a reversal or retracement in trends. Traders might adjust their positions before the weekend, leading to a shift in price direction.

This weekly cycle reflects the rhythm of market sentiment and participant actions throughout the trading week.
 
Understanding the ICT Weekly Profiles is only the starting point. To make them genuinely useful, you must integrate them into a broader, disciplined trading framework. The key is context, confirmation, and risk control. Use the profiles as a structural guide—not a standalone signal—and anchor them in higher-timeframe direction and real-world catalysts.

1. Anchor to the Higher-Timeframe Trend: ICT Weekly Profiles work best when traded in harmony with the dominant trend. Always establish the market’s higher-timeframe bias—daily, weekly, or monthly—and only execute profiles that align with that bias. For example, in a bullish environment, prioritize setups like the Classic Tuesday Low of the Week or Wednesday Monthly Bullish Reversal.

2. Pair Profiles with Confirmation: Weekly Profiles should be validated with secondary evidence. Confirmation may come from indicators, candlestick structure, liquidity arrays, or macro data. If anticipating a Classic Tuesday Low, look for confluence such as a bullish rejection wick, a displacement shift, or supportive economic releases. Layering signals increases conviction and filters out low-quality trades.

3. Prioritize Risk Management: Profiles suggest timing, not certainty. Protect your capital with disciplined stop-loss placement, logical invalidation points, and appropriate position sizing. For instance, on a Wednesday Weekly Bullish Reversal, a stop beneath the higher-timeframe discount array preserves structure and defines risk. Consistent risk control is what keeps you solvent long enough for edge to play out.
  
 

Sunday, March 19, 2023

Backtesting ICT 2022 Mentorship Trading Setups | Hannah Forex

A Trading Setup is an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.  

Reference:
Hannah Forex (Mar 9, 2023) - I take these trades over and over again ... | ICT mentorship model.
 

Anything Can Happen | Mark Douglas

The semiretired chairman of the board of the brokerage firm was a longtime trader with nearly 40 years of experience in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade. He didn't know much about technical analysis, because he never needed it to make money on the floor. But he no longer traded on the floor and found the transition to trading from a screen difficult and somewhat mysterious. So he asked the firm's newly acquired star technical analyst to sit with him during the trading day and teach him technical trading. The new hire jumped at the opportunity to show off his abilities to such an experienced and successful trader. The analyst was using a method called "point and line",  developed by Charlie Drummond.
 

One day, as the two of them were watching the soybean market together, the analyst had projected major support and resistance points and the market happened to be trading between these two points.  As the technical analyst was explaining to the chairman the significance of these two points, he stated in very emphatic, almost absolute terms that if the market goes up to resistance, it will stop and reverse; and if the market goes down to support, it will also stop and reverse. Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day. 
 
As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, "This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?" The analyst responded, "Absolutely! This is the low of the day." "That's bullshit!" the chairman retorted. "Watch this." He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, "Sell two million beans bushels at the market." Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, "Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can."

 
See also:

The Probabilistic Mindset of Successful Traders | Mark Douglas

How can someone produce consistent results from an event that has an uncertain probabilistic outcome? To answer this question, all we have to do is look to the gambling industry. Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. Shouldn't a consistent, nonrandom outcome produce consistent results, and a random outcome produce random, inconsistent results? 
 
» I just wait until there is money lying in the corner,
and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
I do nothing in the meantime. «
Jim Rogers
 
What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling. It's the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at what they do. 
 
 
Their belief prevents them from engaging in the pointless endeavor of trying to predict each individual outcome. They have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don't know what's going to happen next. More important, they don't need to know in order to make money consistently. Because they don't have to know what's going to happen next, they don't place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they're not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it's easier to stay focused on keeping the odds in their favor and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making costly mistakes.

A probabilistic mindset pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths:
  1. Anything can happen.  
  2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.  
  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.  
  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.  
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

Friday, March 17, 2023

How Livermore Judges the Turning Points | Richard D. Wyckoff

Judging the main turning points in the long swings is the most important thing that he does, and if he could accomplish nothing else in between the panics and booms and accurately judge the right time for changing his position, he knows that he has a starting point for the rolling up of tremendous profits during the intervening year or two while the market is on its way from nadir to zenith. It is perfectly clear why this is so. A man who loads up at the low point of a panic has a certain amount of working capital. If he succeeds in selling out near the top of the boom, he has not only his original capital but his aggregate profits as well. If he then takes a short position with the line increased by reason of these profits and successfully rides this short line down to the next panic, he will find his resources vastly increased.
 
Quotation Board Girls copying the latest numbers calculated by the
Composite Man to the quotation board
in Waldorf Astoria's lobby to be acknowledged by the crowd as
the price and nothing but the price; New York, 1918.
 
These lines of stocks which Livermore takes on at the low points are not of course, always sold at the topmost prices. As the market executes its series of intermediate swings and begins to approach the level when an important turning point is likely to occur, he looks for more frequent reactions, and, therefore, will very often liquidate all or part of his line on some of the strong bulges which occur in the upper stages of the market, or in what is known as the selling zone. He does not consider it good policy to try and get the last point, for many things can happen which might bring the ultimate turning point nearer than he anticipated. 
 
He knows that all stocks do not make their tops simultaneously. Some reach their apex months before the last of them have exhausted their lifting power. The bull forces may be likened to an army which is carrying the defenses of the enemy: it can advance just so far without becoming exhausted and falling back. He knows that the principal bull ammunition is money and that general conditions govern and limit the extent of any move; also that it is not so much the news, the statistics, the dividends, etc. that are important but what is of dominating importance is the effect of the developments on the minds of men and the extent to which traders and investors are thereby induced to buy or sell. The market is not affected by what a million people think about the market, but it is immediately affected by their actual buying and selling or their failure to do either. 
 
 
While the long swings are of the utmost importance to him, they do not by any means constitute all of his operations. He is an active trader, for long ago he cured himself of jumping in and out of the market day after day.  
 
Next in importance to the trades which he makes are the intermediate swings running from ten to thirty points and from a week or two to a few months in duration. Let us say that the market is getting into the upper levels and although not at the turning point becomes overbought and the technical position is such that a reaction of ten to fifteen points is imminent. He decides that under such conditions it is best for him to reduce his line of long stocks in order that he may take advantage of whatever decline occurs by replacing them at lower prices. He may have twenty or thirty points profit in a certain lot of stock which he believes will sell at a higher figure eventually, but if he can close this out on the verge of a sharp reaction and replace it ten points cheaper, he has thereby reduced the original cost by that much. His judgment of the time and the direction of these intermediate swings can only be formed accurately by the action of the market as recorded on the tape of the ticker. He cannot gauge it properly in any other way. Where else can he see the gradual alteration from strength to weakness in the market; the complete supply of the absorption power; the ultimate weakening of support and the numerous other characteristics of such an episode.

Wyckoff started as a stockbroker's runner at the age of 15,
became a brokerage firm auditor a few years later,
and at age 25 opened his own brokerage firm.

Just as the market displays to his practiced eye the downward phase, so it forecasts the end of the reaction and the time to resume the long side. These indications appear in the leading stocks of important groups and in many individual issues - usually the most popular trading mediums. The principles of judging the market by its own action, Livermore learned long ago and he found that they operate over the whole wide range of stock market movements, from the little half-hourly ripples back and forth to the great swings in prices running from one to three years. It is a question of supply and demand and once recognized and properly applied, it goes a long way toward solving of most stock market problems.


The market moves along the line of least resistance and when demand is greater than supply this line is upward. To detect the momentary changes as well as those taking a longer time to work out, is the daily task of Mr. Livermore, just as it is the business of every manufacturer and merchant to judge the future course of his particular industry.

 
See also:
Richard D. Wyckoff (1910) - Studies in Tape Reading.
Richard D. Wyckoff (1922) - Exposing and Killing the Bucket Shops. 
Edwin Lefèvre (1923) - Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Edwin Lefèvre (1925) - The Making of a Stockbroker. 
Richard D. Wyckoff (1930) - Wall Street Ventures & Adventures through Forty Years.
 Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks. 

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Six Types of Market Days: Mind Over Markets | James F. Dalton

In Mind Over Markets (1st ed., 1990), James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, and Robert B. Dalton describe six types of market days that recur across all financial markets—though no two days are ever exactly alike:
"The labels we will give these patterns are not as important as understanding how the day evolves in relation to the initial balance and the confidence with which the other time-frame has entered the market.

Think of the initial balance as a base for the day's trading. The purpose of a base is to provide support for something, as the base of a lamp keeps the lamp from tipping over. The narrower the base, the easier it is to knock the lamp over.

The same principle holds true for futures trading in the day time-frame. If the initial balance is narrow, the odds are greater that the base will be upset and range extension will occur. Days that establish a wider base provide more support and the initial balance is more likely to maintain the extremes for the day."

Summarizing all six market day types.


Initial Balance
The Initial Balance is traditionally defined as the price range established during the first hour of trading. It is extremely important to exchange floor professionals, who use the Initial Balance high and low as key reference points to facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers.
 
1. Trend Day
The Trend Day is the most aggressive market day type. On a bullish Trend Day, the open typically marks the session low and the close the session high, with minor variation. On a bearish Trend Day, the open usually marks the session high and the close the session low.

Trend Days exhibit the widest price ranges, making it costly to trade against the move or to recognize the pattern too late. They occur only a few times each month, but capturing them can be highly profitable. Trend Days are often preceded by quiet, narrow-range sessions (e.g., Toby Crabel’s NR4, NR7, or Inside Day patterns). Although rare, a Trend Day can occasionally be followed by another.

Trend Days are driven by initiative buying or selling, as participants show strong conviction in moving price into a new area of value. As price moves farther from value (about 70% of the prior day’s range), participation and volume increase, reinforcing sustained directional movement.

2. Double-Distribution Trend Day
The Double-Distribution Trend Day also trends, but with less confidence and conviction than a classic Trend Day. It begins quietly, with indecision and a narrow initial balance during the first one to two hours. A narrow initial balance is prone to breakout, allowing price to auction beyond the range toward new value.

Once the breakout occurs, the market trends and builds a second distribution of trading activity, testing whether new value is accepted. By the close, volume is concentrated at both the early and late ranges, forming the characteristic double distribution.

The initial balance is crucial for this structure. A narrow initial balance increases the likelihood of breakout, while a wider initial balance makes such a move less probable.

3. Typical Day
The Typical Day begins with a wide initial balance, usually created by a sharp rally or sell-off at the open. This early move pushes price far enough from value to attract responsive participants, who drive it back in the opposite direction and establish the session’s extremes. The market then trades quietly within these boundaries for the rest of the day.

The opening surge is often triggered by economic news released early in the session. Because the initial balance is wide, it generally serves as a firm base that is unlikely to be broken.
 
4. Expanded Typical Day

The Expanded Typical Day resembles the Typical Day in beginning with early directional conviction, but the opening move is weaker. As a result, the initial balance is wider than that of a Double-Distribution Trend Day yet narrower than that of a Typical Day, leaving it vulnerable to violation later in the session.

Eventually, one of the extremes is broken, usually through initiative buying or selling, and price extends in the direction of the breakout. Because the base is neither wide nor narrow, both sides of the initial balance are susceptible to failure, and either—or both—may be tested during the day. Once an extreme gives way, price expands to establish a new area of value, with continued directional movement often carrying through to the close. 

ooOoo
 
The last two day types appear similar but have key differences. While both involve limited directional movement, the distinction lies in the level of participation from buyers and sellers.

5. Trading Range Day
A Trading Range Day occurs when buyers and sellers actively auction price back and forth within the session’s range, typically defined by the initial balance. The initial balance is roughly as wide as that of a Typical Day, but rather than trading quietly within the extremes, participants continually push price between the high and low.

Responsive sellers enter shorts near the top of the range, driving price back toward the lows, while responsive buyers enter longs near the bottom, pushing price toward the highs. This back-and-forth activity continues throughout the day, providing clear opportunities for timing entries and facilitating trade.
 
6Sideways Day
A Sideways Day occurs when price remains stagnant, as both buyers and sellers refrain from significant activity. This typically happens ahead of major economic releases, news events, or trading holidays.

There is no trade facilitation and no directional conviction. The session is a non-trend day with a very compressed range, often forming an inside day, and the risk-reward ratio for day traders is low. The initial balance is narrow, suggesting the potential for a Double-Distribution Trend Day; however, initiative buying or selling never develops, leaving the market quiet for the remainder of the session.
 
ooOoo
 
Jan Firich (2012).

The market typically alternates between high- and low-range sessions. When a rally follows the formation of a narrow value area, the next session’s value area often becomes very wide. 
 
A wide value area usually leads to Trading Range or Sideways Day behavior. In such cases, the initial balance is generally larger, as the market establishes the day’s trading extremes, often resulting in a Typical, Trading Range, or Sideways Day.

References:

Thursday, March 9, 2023

Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range | Stacey Burke

When a market opens outside of the previous day's range and then auctions around the open, one's first impression is that there is no directional conviction present. In reality, the mere fact that the opening is beyond the previous day's range suggests that new other time frame activity has caused price to seek a higher or lower level. Given that the market has opened out of balance, there is a greater chance that directional conviction will develop than if the market had opened and auctioned within the range. An Open-Auction outside of range has the potential to be a big day, while an Open-Auction within value usually lacks conviction.
 
There are only three things price can do:
1. Breakout from a Range and Trend.
2. Breakout from a Range and Reverse.
3. Trading Range between Highs and Lows.

[...] In the large majority of cases, activity during any given day has direct and measurable implications on the following day. It is only on the relatively rare occasion when a market moves extremely out of balance that there is no correlation between two consecutive days. Understanding these implications enables a trader to more successfully visualize developing market activity.

The salient concept here is market balance. The relationship of the open to the previous day's value area and range gives valuable clues to the market's state of balance and what kind of risk/opportunity relationship to expect on a given trading day. In short, the greatest risk and opportunity arise when a market opens outside of the previous day's range. This indicates that the market is out of balance.

When a market opens out of balance, the potential for a dynamic move in either direction is high. Conversely, a market that opens and is accepted (auctions for at least one hour) within the previous day's value area embodies lower risk, but also less opportunity. The acceptance of price within the previous day's value area indicates balance, and therefore reduces the potential for a dynamic move.

Quoted from:
 
[The Value Area is a range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. 
The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%.]
 
 
See also:

UFOs Above Basel | Red And Black Balls In The Sky

A series of mass sightings of celestial phenomena occurred in 1566 above Basel, Switzerland. The Basel pamphlet of 1566 describes unusual sunrises and sunsets. Celestial phenomena were said to have "fought" together in the form of numerous red and black balls in the sky before the rising sun.


"It happened in 1566 three times, on 27 and 28 of July, and on August 7, against the sunrise and sunset; we saw strange shapes in the sky above Basel. During the year 1566, on the 27th of July, after the sun had shone warm on the clear, bright skies, and then around 9 pm, it suddenly took a different shape and color. First, the sun lost all its radiance and luster, and it was no bigger than the full moon, and finally it seemed to weep tears of blood and the air behind him went dark. And he was seen by all the people of the city and countryside. In much the same way also the moon, which has already been almost full and has shone through the night, assuming an almost blood-red color in the sky. The next day, Sunday, the sun rose at about six o'clock and slept with the same appearance it had when it was lying before. He lit the houses, streets and around as if everything was blood-red and fiery. At the dawn of August 7, we saw large black spheres coming and going with great speed and precipitation before the sun and chattered as if they led a fight. Many of them were fiery red and, soon crumbled and then extinguished."
 
By Samuel Coccius, historian of Basel, 1566.

 
Live streamed lights over Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2018 (HERE).

UFOs Above Nuremberg | Or A Sun Dog

A mass sighting of celestial phenomena or unidentified flying objects (UFO) occurred in 1561 above Nuremberg (then a Free Imperial City of the Holy Roman Empire). This view is mostly dismissed by skeptics, some referencing Carl Jung's mid-twentieth century writings about the subject while others find that the phenomenon is likely to be a sun dog.
 

"In the morning of April 14, 1561, at daybreak, between 4 and 5 a.m., a dreadful apparition occurred on the sun, and then this was seen in Nuremberg in the city, before the gates and in the country – by many men and women. At first there appeared in the middle of the sun two blood-red semi-circular arcs, just like the moon in its last quarter. And in the sun, above and below and on both sides, the color was blood, there stood a round ball of partly dull, partly black ferrous color. Likewise there stood on both sides and as a torus about the sun such blood-red ones and other balls in large number, about three in a line and four in a square, also some alone. In between these globes there were visible a few blood-red crosses, between which there were blood-red strips, becoming thicker to the rear and in the front malleable like the rods of reed-grass, which were intermingled, among them two big rods, one on the right, the other to the left, and within the small and big rods there were three, also four and more globes. These all started to fight among themselves, so that the globes, which were first in the sun, flew out to the ones standing on both sides, thereafter, the globes standing outside the sun, in the small and large rods, flew into the sun. Besides the globes flew back and forth among themselves and fought vehemently with each other for over an hour. And when the conflict in and again out of the sun was most intense, they became fatigued to such an extent that they all, as said above, fell from the sun down upon the earth 'as if they all burned' and they then wasted away on the earth with immense smoke. After all this there was something like a black spear, very long and thick, sighted; the shaft pointed to the east, the point pointed west. Whatever such signs mean, God alone knows. Although we have seen, shortly one after another, many kinds of signs on the heaven, which are sent to us by the almighty God, to bring us to repentance, we still are, unfortunately, so ungrateful that we despise such high signs and miracles of God. Or we speak of them with ridicule and discard them to the wind, in order that God may send us a frightening punishment on account of our ungratefulness. After all, the God-fearing will by no means discard these signs, but will take it to heart as a warning of their merciful Father in heaven, will mend their lives and faithfully beg God, that He may avert His wrath, including the well-deserved punishment, on us, so that we may temporarily here and perpetually there, live as his children. 
For it, may God grant us his help, Amen."

By Hanns Glaser, letter-painter of Nuremberg, 1561.


    
Strange object falls into the crater of Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico (HERE)