The
chart below begins at the millennial low of 1555, followed by a
remarkable sequence. I first discovered the 162-year cycle by drawing a
trendline between two consecutive lows of the 54-year
cycle—specifically, the lows of 1842 and 1896. A break in such a
trendline suggests that a larger cycle has turned, and indeed, the
trendline was broken during the 1929–1932 crash.
The combined chart offers further evidence of this cycle’s presence. Notice how neatly the first 324-year cycle subdivides into two 162-year cycles, with the trough of the 162-year cycle occurring precisely in the middle of the 324-year cycle.
Upon closer inspection, both 162-year cycles subdivide into three 54-year cycles, reinforcing the conclusion that the Kondratieff wave is the third harmonic of the 162-year cycle. After the trough in 1784, three 54-year cycles followed, ending with the crash of the late 1920s, which marked the trough of the 162-year cycle.
What followed was the greatest bull market in modern history—and it is unfortunate that we are nearing its end. The peak of the last 324-year cycle occurred in the third 18-year cycle of the second 54-year cycle of the second 162-year cycle, which is where we find ourselves today. The likelihood of further translation beyond the previous 324-year cycle is slim, given that the influence of the 972-year cycle has leveled out since the 1930s.
The Elliott Wave structure is also quite interesting. What stands out on the chart is the fact that the entire advance since 1784 featured a fifth-wave extension. Even more intriguing is that the move from 1932 also included a fifth-wave extension. According to wave theory, fifth-wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. Commodities offer excellent examples of this phenomenon, as their dramatic declines often result from a fifth-wave extension.
The Elliott Wave structure is also quite interesting. What stands out on the chart is the fact that the entire advance since 1784 featured a fifth-wave extension. Even more intriguing is that the move from 1932 also included a fifth-wave extension. According to wave theory, fifth-wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. Commodities offer excellent examples of this phenomenon, as their dramatic declines often result from a fifth-wave extension.




























