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Thursday, April 10, 2025

Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 1926 vs 2025 = 97% Correlation | Moore Research

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily charts, April 1924-June 1926 vs Current)
Correlation: 97% as of April 8, 2025.

Reference:
Moore Research, April 9, 2025.
 
See also:
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Tuesday, April 8, 2025

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025 | Yuriy Matso

 S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.
 
In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is [...] labeled "Panic. Dumping."
 
S&P 500 2025 vs 1969 = J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle.
 Not always exactly to the day, but often close. Directions are more important than levels.
 
Note: Hurst cycles point to a mid-April low and a major mid-May low.

Reference:
2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

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Gold Rises Not with Inflation, But with Geopolitical Issues | Martin Armstrong

Comment by FD: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price?
 
 There is NO STORE OF VALUE because everything rises and falls.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: I am tired of hearing the same constant nonsense about gold being intentionally suppressed by dealers, and that’s why it’s not at $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from  The Forecaster with Barclay [Leib], who used to work for me years ago, talking about how he checked me out with Goldman Sachs before taking the job. 
 

Every manipulation these dealers ever pulled off was to the upside – not to suppress gold. They sell 10x more when people think gold is rising, not declining. This BS claim that they were suppressing gold to help the government keep inflation in check is total BS!  
 
[...] Gold rises NOT with inflation, but with geopolitical issues. Here was the National Debt Q2 1980 at $877.614bn. As of Q2 2024, it stood at $36,218bn. The debt has risen 40.29% since 1980. Gold hit $875 on January 21, 1980, in the cash market. If gold rose because of inflation or the debt level, then it should be $35,260 per ounce. The gold dealer could buy all of Wall Street with that price.
 
Gold/USD (Monthly Bars).
Since the start of the never-ending, ever-larger global US War-of-Terror in September 2001, the price of
gold in USD rose from 251 to 3,176 USD/ounce by April 2025 (average annual growth rate: 17.35%). 
The average annual inflation rate in the US from 2001 to April 2025 is approximately 2.7%.
The cumulative inflation rate in the US from 2001 to April 2025 is approximately 74.9%.
In 2001, the US federal debt was $5.8 trillion and rose to $34.8 trillion by April 2025 (annual growth: 9.86%).
Preliminary results of the global US War-of-Terror in 2023: 4.5 to 4.7 million Muslims killed, with millions more wounded and
maimed. 38 million Muslims displaced, and tens of thousands of settlements, institutions, and infrastructure destroyed. Eco-
nomies collapsed, misery widespread, and famines and mass migrations triggered. US budgetary costs: $8 trillion plus interests.
 
These people who make up these excuses [gold price manipulation] are unbelievable. Gold pays no interest, which is why they lease it out. Otherwise, it is a dead asset that brings in no income. It is a hedge against the government in times of uncertainty—that’s it. It is not a hedge against inflation or the size of the debt. That has been a great sales pitch, but that is it.

 
See also:
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Applied MAGA-nomics: The Future of American Re-Industrialization

 
Bright Days Ahead.

 
 
Make America Great Again! 
 
 
 
 
 
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Monday, April 7, 2025

Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 
 
 S&P 500 (weekly bars).
In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 
next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18).

 
See also:
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Sunday, April 6, 2025

Germany’s Final Descent into Deindustrialization | Gerry Nolan

They blew it up. Literally. As if watching the Nord Stream pipelines get surgically terrorized by US led NATO operatives wasn’t humiliation enough, Berlin just greenlit the demolition of its own functioning coal-fired power plant in Ibbenbüren, Westphalia, in the middle of an energy crisis. No enemy army invaded. No external power sabotaged it. The German government did it to itself.

This isn’t an 'energy transition'. This is energy seppuku.
 
The very plant they blew up could’ve kept homes warm and industry humming. But instead, Germany’s ruling class, wagging their tail for Ursula von der Leyen’s green fantasies and Washington’s LNG extortion racket, chose deindustrialization. They’ve become the first major economy to voluntarily plunge into managed decline, while gas prices soar and steel furnaces go cold.

 
Demolition of  the Ibbenbüren Power Plant on April 6, 2025. The fully operational 838-megawatt coal
power plant was shut down in 2021 as part of Germany’s 'green' Energiewende (energy transition).

Let’s be clear: this is not about the environment. If it were, they wouldn’t be buying dirty coal and gas from abroad while gutting their own infrastructure. This is political obedience disguised as climate policy. The message? Fall in line with Atlanticist diktats, or watch your economy get dismantled, one pipeline, one smokestack at a time.

 
When ruthlessness, vassalage, and madness have a joyful rendezvous: Germany's final descent into deindustrialization and
US energy colony status is rejoiced by the CIA-directed German government's propaganda broadcaster Deutschlandfunk: 
"Former Coal Power Plant: Demolition in Ibbenbüren a Success."
 
The demolition of Ibbenbüren is more than symbolic. It’s the self-immolation of a once-proud industrial giant, now reduced to an energy vassal state begging for overpriced American LNG, locked into permanent austerity to subsidize a war they cannot win in Ukraine.

There is no love for Germans in this arrangement. Only contempt. And still, not a whisper about the real sabotage, the Nord Stream bombing, the economic war, the slow squeeze of sovereignty. Instead, Berlin celebrates its own collapse with photo ops and press releases. If this is “progress,” it’s the kind that ends in darkness, ration cards, and a long winter of regret.

 

In a conversation with Tucker Carlson on April 4, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He recalled how US President Donald Trump had called the Europeans 'insane' for already sourcing most of their energy from Russia. 'Do they want to double that?' Bessent quoted Trump. 'And they did. And look what happened,' Bessent said. Carlson interjected, 'We blew it up.' Laughter erupted, and Bessent quipped, 'Somebody did. Probably Putin. Some Norwegian fisherman bumped into it, is what I read.'
 
 » Washington’s LNG extortion racket. «

Trump declared that the European Union must purchase $350 billion in US energy, primarily LNG and oil, to secure relief from his proposed tariffs. [...] Meeting Trump’s $350 billion goal would demand a fivefold increase, straining production, shipping, and EU willingness to pivot from suppliers like Norway and Qatar.
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DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Joe: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. [...]

DJIA Panic Cycle kicks in during the week of April 28 - May 2
followed by Directional Change in the week of May 12 - 16.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.

 
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Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!


 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:
"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 
And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 
 
POTUS 45 | 47 

  
 
 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,
and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «
 
 
» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5
and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we had a 20w high late March and are now heading lower into the 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.
 
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Friday, April 4, 2025

Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time | Paul Ciana

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.
 
 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.
 
S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).
Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.
Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).
42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 
Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;
three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).
 
J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.
 
VIX (Daily Bars). 
 
S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.
 
S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:
April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 
 
 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.
 
BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 
 
Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)
 
And finally, the Ultra Bear Perspective:
 
  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.
 
See also:
 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.
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We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 
 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Deindustrialized Reality: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dollar’s Status at Risk: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Overreach and Collapse: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
» The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.
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