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Friday, March 29, 2024

The Baltimore Bridge Moment


Priceless. A gem for historians.
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Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan

One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat. 


We are not yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028. 
 

 
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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based, algorithmic trading model applicable across asset classes. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet setup, concentrate on the 10:00–11:00 AM window. Use fair value gaps in conjunction with Fibonacci levels to refine entries and adjust stop placement. Target a minimum 3R risk-to-reward ratio, and close all positions by 11:00 AM to optimize profit capture while limiting exposure to market uncertainty.
 

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time
► A Silver Bullet trade setup begins with a clear directional move, either upward or downward, establishing initial market intent. Following this move, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is formed—this imbalance is a key component of the setup and serves as the primary area of interest.
► Next, look for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurring after liquidity has been taken. An MSS represents a decisive reversal in price delivery, where the market shifts from its prior direction to the opposite. This typically happens when price sweeps previous short-term highs or lows within a trend. For validity, the shift should be impulsive and accompanied by displacement, signaling strong intent from institutional participants.
► Displacement refers to a rapid and forceful price move driven by significant capital, often leaving behind additional Fair Value Gaps. This confirms momentum and reinforces the likelihood of a directional change.
► Entry is executed within the identified Fair Value Gap, aligning with the new directional bias established by the MSS and displacement.
► For targets, focus on liquidity pools such as Asian session highs/lows or higher timeframe premium and discount levels. These areas provide logical exit points where price is likely to rebalance or react. 

10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time
Begin by referencing the previous New York PM session as your primary contextual anchor. During the first 30 minutes after the 9:30 AM market open, assess whether price is trading near that PM range. If price is not in proximity, shift focus to the London Session raid (2:00–5:00 AM, visible on the ETH chart). This comparison helps establish whether the market is drawing toward prior liquidity or operating in a different context.

Within that initial 30-minute window, determine where price stands relative to both the New York PM session and the London session. The market may trend higher, lower, or consolidate—this phase is observational. The actionable setup begins with displacement occurring between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, which forms the foundation of the Silver Bullet model.

During the 10:00–11:00 AM window: 
► Identify a clear, untapped liquidity pool (e.g., equal highs/lows, session highs/lows).
Wait for displacement on lower timeframes (1-, 3-, or 5-minute charts) moving toward that liquidity.
Locate a Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed opposite the direction of the targeted liquidity pool.
Allow price to retrace into the FVG, then enter as price reprices away from it, continuing toward the liquidity target.
► Once a valid Market Structure Shift (MSS) is confirmed, refine the entry using an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) framework. Draw a Fibonacci retracement from the swing low to swing high (for bullish setups) or swing high to swing low (for bearish setups). The optimal entry typically aligns around the 62% retracement level.

For trade management:

► First target: -27% Fibonacci extension
► Second target: -62% Fibonacci extension

This approach aligns entry precision with institutional order flow while structuring exits around logical liquidity objectives.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time
The afternoon Silver Bullet framework begins by focusing on the morning and lunch trading sessions. The objective is to identify AM Session Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) and Sell Side Liquidity (SSL), or Lunch session BSL/SSL, as price transitions into the PM session (1:30 PM–4:00 PM). These liquidity pools establish the context for a potential reversal, with the trade targeting the opposing side of the AM or lunch liquidity.

On Fridays, this model can align with the T.G.I.F. setup, where the target is typically 20–30% of the weekly range, reflecting end-of-week rebalancing behavior.

The execution phase occurs between 2:00 PM and 3:00 PM EST:

► Wait for clear displacement, signaling institutional intent and setting up the Silver Bullet condition.
► Identify a well-defined, untapped liquidity pool, prioritizing levels formed during the AM and lunch sessions.
► Locate a Fair Value Gap (FVG) created by the displacement move.
► Allow price to retrace into the FVG, then enter as price exits the imbalance, moving toward the targeted liquidity.

As with the morning model, confirmation comes from a valid Market Structure Shift (MSS) following a liquidity sweep. Typically, the AM session or NY lunch BSL/SSL acts as the liquidity that has been taken, after which displacement and MSS provide the directional bias for the trade.
 
Consider the 6 hour, the 90 minute, and the 22.5 minute cycles.
Expect highs and lows on the 1 minute chart around Micro-Quarter turns.

Reference: 

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Tom Cotton │ Xi Jinping


» Don’t take it the wrong way.
You guys seem smart, but you keep funding utterly dumb and clownish politicians in your country. 
What’s up with that? In China, Tom Cotton wouldn’t even be a village chief. «
 
President Xi Jinping, while meeting with US corporate leaders in Beijing. - March 2024. 

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The French Road to Nuclear War │ V.I.P.S.

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The [U.S.] President [Joe Biden]
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (V.I.P.S.)
SUBJECT: On the Brink of Nuclear War
DATE:  March 24, 2024

Mr. President:

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.

 » From a military-technical point of view, we are certainly ready for nuclear war.
Our nuclear triad is more advanced than any other one. Everyone knows it, all experts do. «
Vladimir Putin, March 13, 2024.

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as (1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or (2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War. Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.

» In fact, it would be useful for the good of the cause for the restless French to send a few regiments to Neonaziland.
Their systematic destruction would not be the most difficult task, but the most important. 
And it will be a good lesson for the rest of Europe's restless cretins. «
 Dmitry Medvedev, March 20, 2024.

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia. 
 
Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.

» REGULAR TROOPS from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. «
 Pepe Escobar via Telegram, March 22, 2024.
 
We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO. 
 
In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”. Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – the more so, as elections draw near.
 
 » Not ISIS-K: US, Britain, Ukraine behind Crocus City Hall attack. «
March 27, 2024.

What Needs to Be Done
Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.
The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation. 
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Monday, March 25, 2024

From Prison to Palace │ Senegal's Faye will destroy French Neocolonialism

Historical events are brewing in yet another West African country: Senegal is getting rid of the neocolonial dependence on its former metropolis France. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a charismatic opposition candidate who sought to break the treaty with France and improve relations with Russia won the presidential election last weekend. The 44-year-old was only freed from prison 10 days before. As part of his election campaign, Faye promised to review oil and gas deals with Western companies, including agreements with British Petroleum, Endeavor Mining and Kosmos Energy. The collapse of France's colonial empire in Africa continues. Hence the pitiful growl of Rothschild stooge Macron, who squandered the entire inheritance of the French colonialists.
 
 » The departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final 
cross on the entire system of French neocolonialism. «

Faye advocates a radical revision of relations between Senegal and France. And as part of this, Faye is going to follow neighboring Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to leave the French currency system by abandoning the CFA franc. And the French military will have to leave Senegal. Sensing something was wrong, Paris had already announced a little earlier that it was sharply reducing the military contingent in Senegal (probably so that it would not be so shameful later). In return, Faye promises to take a course towards rapprochement with Russia.
 

Thus, France's next major foreign policy defeat on the African continent looms on the horizon. Moreover, last year Senegal still was a servile French key player in the issue of the blockade of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, which had previously freed themselves from the influence of Paris. And the departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final and fat cross on the system which brought huge profits to France and on which the entire system of French neocolonialism was essentially built. 
 

 » France is the equivalent of an overfed Chihuahua, and you don't want to get in the ring with the really 
beefed up Rottweilers, especially when they've been trained to eat overfed Chihuahuas their entire life. «
Scott Ritter - March 21, 2024.

And hence all of Macron’s current anti-Russian hysteria. He lost access to Niger's gold and uranium last year, and now, like a plucked rooster, understands that France is also losing to Russia. Ukraine for him is the last chance to spoil Moscow. He will be disappointed there too.
 
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Sabbatai Zevi, Freemasonry, Dönmeh & the Turkish Republic │ Dejan Lučić

Turkey is ruled by the secret society Dönmeh. You can check this on the internet. They are Jews who converted to Islam in 1666. Mind you, 1666. Let me explain who they are. A guy called Sabbatai Zevi, a charismatic Jew, handsome, two meters tall, being familiar with magic, a good speaker, travels around Turkey. Although people know that he is a friend of the English, and keeps boasting how he will establish a Jewish state in the Ottoman Sultan's empire, he is supported by the Sufis, by the Kabbalists. Everyone admires him. So he has 50,000 followers, and the majority of them live in Thessaloniki.

 Enthronement of the false Jewish messiah 
Sabbatai Zevi in Smyrna (İzmir) in 1648.

The Sultan hears about this and orders his servants to arrest Sabbatai Zevi in 1666. He asks him: "You fool, do I hear that you're talking about establishing a Jewish state in my Empire of the Turks, how are you going to establish a Jewish state here? Who is spreading this nonsense? Are you insulting me? I will order my servants to cut off your head, since you are a subversive element." Sabbatai Zevi answered: "Hold on, dear Sultan, I want to tell you something. If you cut my head off, you will enrage the Jews in London, Paris, Berlin, who are all interconnected, and they will overthrow you, cutting your own head off. Your brother will become Sultan, or perhaps your son, while you and I will be headless. So let me make a suggestion: Spare my head, and I will do my best to restore your honor by neglecting stupidities that I talked about. I will denounce my Jewish faith and will publicly convert to Islam, I will say 'Allahu Akbar', I will bow and accept it." The Sultan smiled and said: "All right, do it!", and Sabbatai Zevi actually converted to Islam on September 16, 1666 and so did his 50,000 Jewish followers. Within five years the Sabbatean crypto-Jews were able to infiltrate every existing pore in the Ottoman state, and taking full control of it. And ever since, Turkey has been ruled by this secret society, the Dönmeh, comprised of Jews, who today number some 20,000, but are perfectly distributed. 

 
Is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Türkiye, really a Georgian, a Laz, a Greek, an Armenian, a Kurd, a snake, a Jew, 
a Dönmeh, a Freemason? Is he really an Israeli asset and all of his 'support for Palestinians' but empty talk? Who really cares.

Thus Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was born in Thessaloniki and educated in Bitola. He also probably spoke Serbian. A wise man. Of course a Freemason. The order of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of the English amputated the Ottoman Empire, abolished the Caliphate, created a Turkish nation state, switched to the Latin alphabet and modernized Turkey. Since then, up until today, Turkey has been ruled by the Jewish Dönmeh. So Mr. Erdoğan, who says that he feels at home in Sarajevo and that Sarajevo and Priština are Turkish and so on, is a member of the secret society Dömneh just like his former Minister of Foreign Affairs – Abdullah Gül. All of you Bosniacs can easily check this. Contact your countrymen in Turkey, ask them via phone, Skype or Viber if that what this Dejan Lučić claims is true, that Erdoğan is actually a Jew.  
 
Quoted from:
Dejan Lučić (2016/2020) - Erdogan is a Freemason, member of Turkey’s secret society ‘Dömneh’.

 
 » Erdoğan is actually a Jew. «
Serbian-Yugoslavian historian Dejan Lučić, 2016.

See also: 
 
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Sunday, March 24, 2024

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.


This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.
 
 
 
THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 
 
This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  
 
Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 
 
The outlook for April is much brighter. 
 
  
Reference: 
 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X
 
[ oftentimes true: ]
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.
 
 
 
 
 
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Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 
 
 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:
 
This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 
Active fund managers are all-in.
 
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