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Friday, March 29, 2024

The Baltimore Bridge Moment


Priceless. A gem for historians.
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Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan

One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat. 


We are not yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028. 
 

 
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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet strategy, focus on 10-11 AM, using fair value gaps and Fibonacci levels for entry/stop adjustments, aiming for a minimum 3R risk-reward, and exit by 11 AM to maximize profits and minimize risks. 
 

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time
  1. A Silver Bullet trade begins with a directional move either up or down.
  2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): After the directional move, a Fair Value Gap is left behind. This gap is an important indicator for the Silver Bullet trade.
  3. Market Structure Shift (MSS) after taking liquidity. A Market Structure Shift is a shift in direction of price delivery. When price is going in a direction and shifts to the exactly opposite. It occurs when price takes out previous short-term lows or highs within a trend. Identifying these shifts allows for an understanding on which side of the market to be trading with. A Market Structure Shift must be energetic and leave behind displacement to ensure that market is looking to reverse.
  4. Displacement is a location in price where someone with a lot of money comes into the marketplace with a strong conviction to move price higher or lower very quickly. Displacement is characterized by strong and quick price movement that leave behind Fair Value Gaps.
  5. Entering the Fair Value Gap: Once the Fair Value Gap is identified, we enter inside it. This means we take a position in the market.
  6. Target and Exit: I aim for Asian Session Liquidity Level or Higher Time Frame Premium/Discount levels.
10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time
The first thing we think about is the previous New York PM session. If, within the first 30 minutes after the market opens, we're not close to the PM range, we focus on the London Session Raid. This refers to the time between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM, which is shown on the ETH chart. During the first 30 minutes after the market opens at 9:30 AM, we check where we stand compared to the previous PM session or London session. The market might go up or down, or it might stay stable. Then we wait for the Displacement between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  1. Every day between 10 AM and 11 AM EST, identify an obvious pool of liquidity that has not been tapped into or engaged.
  2. Wait for displacement (use 1-3-5 minute charts) towards liquidity pool between that time. Find a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the opposite of the targeted liquidity pool.
  3. Wait for price to trade back into the Fair Value Gap and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
After identifying the Market Structure Shift (MSS), I recommend drawing an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time
The first thing we focus on is the morning and lunch time trading sessions. Our goal is to identify the AM Session Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity (BSL/SSL) or Lunch BSL/SSL once the PM Session starts (from 1:30 PM to 4:00 PM). This will serve as our reversal point during the afternoon Silver Bullet, where our target will be the opposite liquidity of the lunch/AM session. If it's Friday, our target can be 20-30% of the weekly range. This is known as the T.G.I.F. setup according to ICT.
  1. We wait for the Displacement between 2 PM and 3 PM EST, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  2. We look for a clear pool of untapped liquidity. It's recommended to pay attention to the liquidity levels during the AM and Lunch sessions.
  3. Find a Fair Value Gap.
  4. Wait for the price to trade back into the FVG and then move out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
Once again, we usually consider the AM Session BSL/SSL or NY Lunch BSL/SSL as our clear liquidity pool that has been taken. Then we wait for Market Structure Shift (MSS) and displacement.
 
Consider the 6 hour, the 90 minute, and the 22.5 minute cycles.
Expect highs and lows on the 1 minute chart around Micro-Quarter turns.

Reference: 

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Tom Cotton │ Xi Jinping


» Don’t take it the wrong way.
You guys seem smart, but you keep funding utterly dumb and clownish politicians in your country. 
What’s up with that? In China, Tom Cotton wouldn’t even be a village chief. «
 
President Xi Jinping, while meeting with US corporate leaders in Beijing. - March 2024. 

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The French Road to Nuclear War │ V.I.P.S.

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The [U.S.] President [Joe Biden]
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (V.I.P.S.)
SUBJECT: On the Brink of Nuclear War
DATE:  March 24, 2024

Mr. President:

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.

 » From a military-technical point of view, we are certainly ready for nuclear war.
Our nuclear triad is more advanced than any other one. Everyone knows it, all experts do. «
Vladimir Putin, March 13, 2024.

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as (1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or (2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War. Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.

» In fact, it would be useful for the good of the cause for the restless French to send a few regiments to Neonaziland.
Their systematic destruction would not be the most difficult task, but the most important. 
And it will be a good lesson for the rest of Europe's restless cretins. «
 Dmitry Medvedev, March 20, 2024.

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia. 
 
Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.

» REGULAR TROOPS from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. «
 Pepe Escobar via Telegram, March 22, 2024.
 
We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO. 
 
In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”. Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – the more so, as elections draw near.
 
 » Not ISIS-K: US, Britain, Ukraine behind Crocus City Hall attack. «
March 27, 2024.

What Needs to Be Done
Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.
The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation. 
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Monday, March 25, 2024

From Prison to Palace │ Senegal's Faye will destroy French Neocolonialism

Historical events are brewing in yet another West African country: Senegal is getting rid of the neocolonial dependence on its former metropolis France. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a charismatic opposition candidate who sought to break the treaty with France and improve relations with Russia won the presidential election last weekend. The 44-year-old was only freed from prison 10 days before. As part of his election campaign, Faye promised to review oil and gas deals with Western companies, including agreements with British Petroleum, Endeavor Mining and Kosmos Energy. The collapse of France's colonial empire in Africa continues. Hence the pitiful growl of Rothschild stooge Macron, who squandered the entire inheritance of the French colonialists.
 
 » The departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final 
cross on the entire system of French neocolonialism. «

Faye advocates a radical revision of relations between Senegal and France. And as part of this, Faye is going to follow neighboring Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to leave the French currency system by abandoning the CFA franc. And the French military will have to leave Senegal. Sensing something was wrong, Paris had already announced a little earlier that it was sharply reducing the military contingent in Senegal (probably so that it would not be so shameful later). In return, Faye promises to take a course towards rapprochement with Russia.
 

Thus, France's next major foreign policy defeat on the African continent looms on the horizon. Moreover, last year Senegal still was a servile French key player in the issue of the blockade of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, which had previously freed themselves from the influence of Paris. And the departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final and fat cross on the system which brought huge profits to France and on which the entire system of French neocolonialism was essentially built. 
 

 » France is the equivalent of an overfed Chihuahua, and you don't want to get in the ring with the really 
beefed up Rottweilers, especially when they've been trained to eat overfed Chihuahuas their entire life. «
Scott Ritter - March 21, 2024.

And hence all of Macron’s current anti-Russian hysteria. He lost access to Niger's gold and uranium last year, and now, like a plucked rooster, understands that France is also losing to Russia. Ukraine for him is the last chance to spoil Moscow. He will be disappointed there too.
 
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Sabbatai Zevi, Freemasonry, Dönmeh & the Turkish Republic │ Dejan Lučić

Turkey is ruled by the secret society Dönmeh. You can check this on the internet. They are Jews who converted to Islam in 1666. Mind you, 1666. Let me explain who they are. A guy called Sabbatai Zevi, a charismatic Jew, handsome, two meters tall, being familiar with magic, a good speaker, travels around Turkey. Although people know that he is a friend of the English, and keeps boasting how he will establish a Jewish state in the Ottoman Sultan's empire, he is supported by the Sufis, by the Kabbalists. Everyone admires him. So he has 50,000 followers, and the majority of them live in Thessaloniki.

 Enthronement of the false Jewish messiah 
Sabbatai Zevi in Smyrna (İzmir) in 1648.

The Sultan hears about this and orders his servants to arrest Sabbatai Zevi in 1666. He asks him: "You fool, do I hear that you're talking about establishing a Jewish state in my Empire of the Turks, how are you going to establish a Jewish state here? Who is spreading this nonsense? Are you insulting me? I will order my servants to cut off your head, since you are a subversive element." Sabbatai Zevi answered: "Hold on, dear Sultan, I want to tell you something. If you cut my head off, you will enrage the Jews in London, Paris, Berlin, who are all interconnected, and they will overthrow you, cutting your own head off. Your brother will become Sultan, or perhaps your son, while you and I will be headless. So let me make a suggestion: Spare my head, and I will do my best to restore your honor by neglecting stupidities that I talked about. I will denounce my Jewish faith and will publicly convert to Islam, I will say 'Allahu Akbar', I will bow and accept it." The Sultan smiled and said: "All right, do it!", and Sabbatai Zevi actually converted to Islam on September 16, 1666 and so did his 50,000 Jewish followers. Within five years the Sabbatean crypto-Jews were able to infiltrate every existing pore in the Ottoman state, and taking full control of it. And ever since, Turkey has been ruled by this secret society, the Dönmeh, comprised of Jews, who today number some 20,000, but are perfectly distributed. 

 
Is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Türkiye, really a Georgian, a Laz, a Greek, an Armenian, a Kurd, a snake, a Jew, 
a Dönmeh, a Freemason? Is he really an Israeli asset and all of his 'support for Palestinians' but empty talk? Who really cares.

Thus Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was born in Thessaloniki and educated in Bitola. He also probably spoke Serbian. A wise man. Of course a Freemason. The order of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of the English amputated the Ottoman Empire, abolished the Caliphate, created a Turkish nation state, switched to the Latin alphabet and modernized Turkey. Since then, up until today, Turkey has been ruled by the Jewish Dönmeh. So Mr. Erdoğan, who says that he feels at home in Sarajevo and that Sarajevo and Priština are Turkish and so on, is a member of the secret society Dömneh just like his former Minister of Foreign Affairs – Abdullah Gül. All of you Bosniacs can easily check this. Contact your countrymen in Turkey, ask them via phone, Skype or Viber if that what this Dejan Lučić claims is true, that Erdoğan is actually a Jew.  
 
Quoted from:
Dejan Lučić (2016/2020) - Erdogan is a Freemason, member of Turkey’s secret society ‘Dömneh’.

 
 » Erdoğan is actually a Jew. «
Serbian-Yugoslavian historian Dejan Lučić, 2016.

See also: 
 
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Prepare for April S&P Correction Now │ Allen Reminick

Short term, the S&P market is topping in the next two weeks.


We've been discussing the 18 year cycle and the 12 year cycle and the 24 year cycle, all having agreement since March 12th, where they all implied that the market would rally until Monday, March 25th or longer. There is a very good chance that is the beginning of a sideways phase that could last until as late as April 10th. We're not expecting a dramatic continuation on the upside. Potentially the market goes slightly higher between now and April 10th, but it's a topping phase. 
 

It's a down, up, down, up, down, up kind of pattern. And finally, in the later part of April, it should make a low. Between April 16th and the 24th of April. But it may gyrate and just do nothing much until it's ready to fall between April 10th and April 24th.

 
After that, of course, we're expecting to see further, higher prices until May 23rd , between 5,400 and 5,600. This could be completing the move that started October 27th of 2023.

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Sunday, March 24, 2024

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.


This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.
 
 
 
THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 
 
This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  
 
Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 
 
The outlook for April is much brighter. 
 
  
Reference: 
 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X
 
[ oftentimes true: ]
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.
 
 
 
 
 
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Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 
 
 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:
 
This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 
Active fund managers are all-in.
 
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