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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

The Bullish & the Bearish Market Maker Cycle

  


The weekly pattern does not imply the use of a weekly time frame. It refers to the pattern that is seen in a 15, 60 or 240 minute chart over a period of a week. However, market makers also have seasonal variations of price movement and so it can be seen on longer time frames, though it is probably too slow to be traded effectively.
 
 
A typical pattern of behaviour particularly when examining the Three Day Cycle is to be able to identify a peak high followed by three moves down and a reversal which forms the peak low. Each time price moves down a level they can be referred to as achieving or making either a Level I, Level II or a Level III move. Level I and Level II have relatively similar patterns of behaviour (1-2-3 stop hunt). However Level III tends to be choppy with a wide range and represents an area of profit-taking for the institutions and signifies the beginning of an accumulation period for another cycle. 
 
The reasons for this behaviour can be understood if you consider what happens during the rundown:
  1. On day one the retail traders are selling and the institutions buying from the retail traders.
  2. On day two the retail traders are selling and again the institutions are buying.
  3. However, on day three the retail traders are again interested in selling and the institutions are buying up heavily.
  4. Now price moves up aggressively triggering stops and taking a profit. (In effect, the market makers are using a scaling-in method to book their profit).
  5. Following a Level III pullback price becomes choppy and continues because of what happens with the trader’s psychological adaptation to loss. After the market has run down for three days and traders have taken losses, these individuals react by pulling away from the market quite literally and having a few days off before coming back to trade. During this period the market is choppy and relatively stagnant until the traders have returned to play in the game again.
To remember the patterns the following phrases are useful:
  1. "After a big drop the market must chop"
  2. "After three days of drop the market must chop"
  3. "After a big rise the market needs more guys"
  4. "After three days of rise the market needs more guys"
These patterns are similar in different time frames. The areas of reversal are often synchronized so that they occur at the same time in different time frames. Using this knowledge it is possible to convert a spot trade into a swing trade when you enter it from a peak formation high to a peak formation low. 

Count the levels to know what part of the cycle price is currently in. Entering trades at peak reversals is best. One should only take a long position when the Low of the Day (LOD) or High of the Day (HOD) is clear. This is the only place that has a high level of certainty in directional movement. Look for a midweek reversal which will generally correlate with one or both of the intraday reversals. With an awareness of the longer cycle and assuming one is in the correct place within the cycle, it is possible to convert a spot trade to a swing trade from one of the 3 day cycle peaks to the other given an appropriate entry. This would involve going from one peak formation high to the next peak low and may take several days.

On an intraday trade, it is still important to understand the current position within this larger cycle. This will help to make a judgement about how far a run may last. For example, if price has just passed the peak high and is at a Level I accumulation then an intraday long trade after a bearish stop hunt, while valid, will not be likely to produce consistent results. Hence, it is a good idea to not take trades against the longer trend at a Level I accumulation.
 

The Accumulation Phase: This phase commences with the resetting of a daily high/low. It occurs at 5pm ET which is the beginning of the “Dharma” period. The Dharma period occurs after the US markets have closed and before the London markets have opened. During this period there tends to be little activity and the market just cycles back and forth between two price points. This occurs because Bank A will buy a quantity of currency from Bank B [1]. This causes price to rise. This is followed by bank B selling the same currency to Bank C [2] and this causes price to fall. This process goes around in circles and so the price simply oscillates back and forth. After a while, the range begins to widen [3]. This has the effect of triggering pending orders placed by breakout traders. So positions become committed and gradually accumulate as more and more traders begin to ‘take the bait’. However, when they are triggered, price is quickly pulled away and they will often be stopped out on the other side of the range which is also widening. 

 
The Stop Hunt - also defining the HOD and LOD: Sometimes between 1 – 4am ET, the market makers make a stop hunt. The stop hunt involves a deliberate movement outside of the range to what will become the high or low of the day. The move usually occurs in three pushes which can be as simple as three candles though you will sometimes see a small pause in the form of a pullback in the middle of this. The stop hunt has two main objectives:
  1. Take out existing stops, that is: collecting buy side and sell side liquidity.
  2. Encourage traders to commit to positions in a direction that is opposite to where the real trend is going to be.
This represents the high/low of the day (HOD/LOD). Once the HOD/LOD has been hit:
  1. The spread is opened up by a few pips. This allows traders orders to be triggered outside their normal boundaries and they will be holding negative positions from the outset.
  2. It is common to see price undergo a further period of accumulation lasting 30 to 90 minutes which encourages traders to take further positions. When there are enough positions, the price is moved in the direction of the true trend and their stops will be triggered.
  3. There is often a second move to the HOD/LOD though most of the time it will fail to take it out (so as to not give those who got in a profitable position to escape from). This forms the typical W or M pattern.
This is the preferred point of entry for most of these trades, particularly the second leg of the M or W. It is relatively slow moving and so there should be no reason to rush or impulsively take a trade. 
 
 
Other behaviors at the HOD and LOD Reversal: Market makers induce traders to take the wrong direction by using sharp and aggressive moves near the high or low of the day. One of the ways of identifying that you are in the right place is that the market will seem to be quiet, in consolidation and make a sharp move out of the range, faking "the breakout".

If a trade is taken in the area of the HOD/LOD one might notice that price is moving around but the position changes little. Looking at the price board one will see that it is "flickering red and blue" with lots of changes suggesting that there is lots of activity but in fact there is little and a reversal is imminent. Another observation during this period is that the spread widens. This is done so that a broader range of orders can be collected and accumulated during this period, making it even more difficult for traders to take profit as they are in a losing position right from the outset. The diagram below demonstrates what happens to the spread during this period.
 

But these patterns do fail sometimes. This occurs when there has not been enough volume to make it worth their while to take a reversal. In these situations that price is moved to the next level to further induce positions to be taken in the wrong direction, against what is to become true trend. This is called the extended stop hunt.
 
Extended Stop Hunt: When price is pushed outside of the Asian range and comes to rest 25 to 50 pips beyond the range, the market makers' motivation is to generate a stop hunt. However, if as a result of this move the accumulation of positions is inadequate for their purposes, then the stop hunt will be extended. This means that price will be pushed beyond this Level in the direction of the technical trend in an effort to induce more traders to enter positions and build up the positions required.

Like before, this move will be in the 25 – 50 pip range and be comprised of 3 candles or 3 pushes. But also like before this is not necessarily the case and more or less are also possible. Again the trader must use their own judgement and discretion. Therefore, identifying that after a period of time the stop hunt has not led to a reversal one should scratch the trade. An appropriate period of time is 2 hours following the second leg of an M or W pattern. It the trader has not moved in the expected direction by this time, something is wrong and they have not been able to build up enough volume to make it worthwhile to reverse the market.

 
The True Trend: The stop hunt is followed by a reversal and a slower trend that continues against the ‘faked’ trend toward the opposite high/low for the day. This trend tends to move in three waves, the pause between each wave representing a new opportunity to fake out traders by reversing direction and then moving against them again. These pauses are often characterized by sideways movement rather than a significant retracement though both are possible.
 
 
The Opposite LOD / HOD and Reversal: Ultimately the opposite LOD/HOD will be reached and there will be another reversal. This often occurs in the NY session, called the NYC Reversal Trade. This trade is likely to return a smaller profit than the initial stop hunt reversal trade though it is still worth taking particularly if you are not able to enter a trade following the London open.
 
 
Return to Accumulation: Once the reversal has occurred, price tends back toward the center, often not far from the starting point and recommences a new period of accumulation to lead into the new Dharma period and tomorrow’s cycle.
 

Quoted from:
Anonymous - The Market Maker Method
 
See also:
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Monday, September 26, 2022

The Bankster's Paradise Conspiracy Theory | Antony C. Sutton

There is an extensive literature in English, French, and German reflecting the argument that the Bolshevik Revolution was the result of a "Jewish conspiracy"; more specifically, a conspiracy by Jewish world bankers. Generally, world control is seen as the ultimate objective; the Bolshevik Revolution was but one phase of a wider program that supposedly reflects an age old religious struggle between Christianity and the "forces of darkness."
 

The argument and its variants can be found in the most surprising places and from quite surprising persons. In February 1920 Winston Churchill wrote an article — rarely cited today — for the London Illustrated Sunday Herald entitled "Zionism Versus Bolshevism." In this article Churchill concluded that it was "particularly important ... that the National Jews in every country who are loyal to the land of their adoption should come forward on every occasion ... and take a prominent part in every measure for combatting the Bolshevik conspiracy." Churchill draws a line between "national Jews" and what he calls "international Jews." He argues that the "international and for the most atheistical Jews" certainly had a "very great" role in the creation of Bolshevism and bringing about the Russian Revolution. He asserts (contrary to fact) that with the exception of Lenin, "the majority" of the leading figures in the revolution were Jewish, and adds (also contrary to fact) that in many cases Jewish interests and Jewish places of worship were excepted by the Bolsheviks from their policies of seizure. Churchill calls the international Jews a "sinister confederacy" emergent from the persecuted populations of countries where Jews have been persecuted on account of their race. Winston Churchill traces this movement back to Spartacus-Weishaupt, throws his literary net around Trotsky, Bela Kun, Rosa Luxemburg, and Emma Goldman, and charges: "This world-wide conspiracy for the overthrow of civilisation and for the reconstitution of society on the basis of arrested development, of envious malevolence, and impossible equality, has been steadily growing."
 

[...] The persistence with which the Jewish-conspiracy myth has been pushed suggests that it may well be a deliberate device to divert attention from the real issues and the real causes. The evidence provided in this book suggests that the New York bankers who were also Jewish had relatively minor roles in supporting the Bolsheviks, while the New York bankers who were also Gentiles (Morgan, Rockefeller, Thompson) had major roles.

What better way to divert attention from the real operators than by the medieval bogeyman of anti-Semitism?

 
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Wall Street's Revolutionary Socialism for Mexico | Anthony C. Sutton

Anthony C. Sutton (1974) - Another case of revolution supported by New York financial institutions concerned that of Mexico in 1915-16. Von Rintelen, a German espionage agent in the United States, was accused during his May 1917 trial in New York City of attempting to "embroil" the U.S. with Mexico and Japan in order to divert ammunition then flowing to the Allies in Europe. 
 
Iconic image of revolutionary Pancho Villa in Ojinaga, a publicity still taken
by Mutual Film Corporation photographer John Davidson Wheelan, January 1914
 
Payment for the ammunition that was shipped from the United States to the Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa, was made through Guaranty Trust Company. Von Rintelen's adviser, Sommerfeld, paid $380,000 via Guaranty Trust and Mississippi Valley Trust Company to the Western Cartridge Company of Alton, Illinois, for ammunition shipped to El Paso, for forwarding to Villa. This was in mid-1915. On January 10, 1916, Villa murdered seventeen American miners at Santa Isabel and on March 9, 1916, Villa raided Columbus, New Mexico, and killed eighteen more Americans. 
 
Columbus, New Mexico, after being raided by Pancho Villa
 
Wall Street involvement in these Mexican border raids was the subject of a letter (October 6, 1916) from Lincoln Steffens, an American Communist, to Colonel House [Edward Mandell House], an aide' to Woodrow Wilson: My dear Colonel House: Just before I left New York last Monday, I was told convincingly that "Wall Street" had completed arrangements for one more raid of Mexican bandits into the United States: to be so timed and so atrocious that it would settle the election [...]
 
Venustiano Carranza, 44th President of Mexico,
First Chief of the Constitutionalist Army, 1920
 
Once in power in Mexico, the Carranza government purchased additional arms in the United States. The American Gun Company contracted to ship 5,000 Mausers and a shipment license was issued by the War Trade Board for 15,000 guns and 15,000,000 rounds of ammunition. The American ambassador to Mexico, Fletcher, "flatly refused to recommend or sanction the shipment of any munitions, rifles, etc., to Carranza." However, intervention by Secretary of State Robert Lansing reduced the barrier to one of a temporary delay, and "in a short while [the American Gun Company] would be permitted to make the shipment and deliver."

The raids upon the U.S. by the Villa and the Carranza forces were reported in the New York Times as the "Texas Revolution" (a kind of dry run for the Bolshevik Revolution) and were undertaken jointly by Germans and Bolsheviks. The testimony of John A. Walls, district attorney of Brownsville, Texas, before the 1919 Fall Committee yielded documentary evidence of the link between Bolshevik interests in the United States, German activity, and the Carranza forces in Mexico.

Consequently, the Carranza government, the first in the world with a Soviet-type constitution (which was written by Trotskyites), was a government with support on Wall Street. The Carranza revolution probably could not have succeeded without American munitions and Carranza would not have remained in power as long as he did without American help.
 
[...] We also identified documentary evidence concerning a Wall Street syndicate's financing of the 1912 Sun Yat-sen revolution in China, a revolution that is today hailed by the Chinese Communists as the precursor of Mao's revolution in China. Charles B. Hill, New York attorney negotiating with Sun Yat-sen in behalf of this syndicate, was a director of three Westinghouse subsidiaries, and we have found that Charles R. Crane of Westinghouse in Russia was involved in the Russian Revolution.

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Sunday, September 25, 2022

Lenin. Money. Revolution. | Serhii Hrabovsky

Serhii Hrabovsky (2010) - The themes linked to Lenin, money, and revolution, present an inexhaustible source for historians, psychologists, and satirists. Just imagine: we have a man who urged to make, after the complete victory of communism, toilet bowls in public restrooms of solid gold; who never had to earn a living through hard work; who was quite comfortably off even in prison and exile, and barely knew what money is, yet at the same time made a considerable contribution to the theory of commodity-money relations.

How exactly did he manage to do that? Not via brochures and articles, of course, but through his revolutionary activities. It was Lenin who introduced, in 1919-21, non-monetary “natural” barter between towns and in the countryside. This resulted in the total collapse of the economy, a complete standstill in agriculture, mass famines, and, consequently, mass uprisings against the regime of the Russian Communist Party. Only then, soon before his death, did Lenin perceive the true meaning of money and introduced the NEP, the New Economic Policy, a kind of “manageable capitalism” under the supervision of the communist party.
 
 
 
However, our purpose here is something other than the exploration of these fascinating subjects. Instead, we will take a look at where Vladimir Lenin got the fantastic sums necessary to fund party activity before the revolution. Over recent decades some very interesting materials have been published, but still, much remains obscure. For example, at the beginning of the 20th century, the underground newspaper Iskra was sponsored by a mysterious benefactor (individual or collective), disguised in the party documents as the “Californian gold mines.” Some researchers believe that this was an instance of radical Russian revolutionaries being sponsored by American Jewish bankers, mostly Russian expatriates and their descendants, who hated Tsarism for its official anti-semitic policies.

During the revolution of 1905-07, Bolsheviks were sponsored by American oil corporations with the view to pushing their rivals out of the world markets (namely, Nobel’s oil cartel in Baku). At that very time, the American banker Jacob Schiff also provided Bolsheviks with money, as he himself confessed. The list of donors also included Yermasov, a manufacturer from Syzran, and Morozov, a merchant and industrialist based near Moscow. Later, the Bolshevik party acquired another financial donor in the person of Schmidt, owner of a furniture factory in Moscow. It is curious that Savva Morozov and Nikolai Schmidt both eventually committed a suicide, as a result of which the Bolsheviks got a considerable proportion of their fortunes. And of course, big money came from the so-called ex’es [the truncated form of “expropriation”] or, in simpler terms, banal robberies of banks, post offices, and railway ticket-offices. These actions were masterminded by two characters with criminal monickers Kamo and Koba, i.e., Ter-Petrosian and Dzhugashvili.

Nevertheless, hundreds of thousands and even millions of roubles invested in revolutionary activities might at best only shake the Russian empire. Despite all its shortcomings, its institutions were pretty solid – but only in peacetime. With the outbreak of the First World War, new financial and political opportunities opened up before the Bolsheviks, and they didn’t fail to take advantage of them. On Jan. 15, 1915 the German ambassador in Istanbul sent a report to Berlin, relating about his meeting with a Russian subject Aleksander Gelfand (aka Parvus), an active participant of the revolution of 1905-07 and owner of a large trade company. Parvus acquainted the German ambassador with the plan of the Russian revolution. He was immediately invited to Berlin, where he met with some influential cabinet members and advisors to Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg. Parvus suggested that the Germans give him a large sum of money to help promote, firstly, the national movements in Finland and Ukraine and secondly, to support the Bolsheviks, who propagated the idea of the defeat of the Russian empire in the unjust war for the sake of overthrowing the “regime of landlords and capitalists.” Parvus’ suggestions were accepted; on Kaiser Wilhelm’s personal order, he was given two million German marks as the first contribution to “the cause of the Russian revolution.” Later, other installments followed, some of them for greater sums. Thus, according to a receipt made by Parvus, on Jan. 29, 1915 he received 15 million in Russian bills for the development of the revolutionary movement in Russia. The money was allotted with the typical German efficiency.

In Finland and Ukraine Parvus’ (and the German general staff’s) agents turned out to be of second or third-rate importance. Therefore, their influence on the process of gaining independence in these countries was insignificant in comparison with the objective processes of nation-building in the Russian empire. Yet in regards to Lenin, Parvus-Gelfand hit the bull’s-eye. Parvus claimed that he told Lenin that, at that moment, revolution was only possible in Russia, and only as a result of Germany winning the war. In response, Lenin sent his proxy Fuerstenberg (aka Ganetsky) for close cooperation with Parvus, which lasted till 1918. Another installment from Germany, although not as large, came to the Bolsheviks via the Swiss parliamentary Karl Moor – but it only amounted to 35,000 dollars. More investments came from the Nia Bank in Stockholm. On the order of the German Imperial Bank at No. 2754, Nia, personal accounts for Lenin, Trotsky, Zinoviev, and other Bolshevik leaders, were opened. Order No. 7433 of March 2, 1917, provided payments for the “services” of Lenin, Zinoviev, Kollontai, and others, in the sphere of public peace propaganda in Russia, where the Tsarist regime had just been overthrown.

The colossal sums were wisely administered. The Bolsheviks published their own newspapers which were distributed free of charge in every town and village. The entire territory of Russia was covered with a network of their professional propagandists. “Red guard” units were formed quite openly. Of course, it was done not just with the German gold. Although the “poor” political emigrant Trotsky had 10 thousand dollars confiscated by Canadian customs in Halifax in 1917, whilst being on his way from America to Russia, it is absolutely clear that he still managed to smuggle huge sums from the banker Schiff to his supporters.
 
Yet even greater funds were raised in the course of “the expropriation of the expropriators” (in more common terms, the robbing of wealthy individuals and organizations), initiated in the spring of 1917. Has it ever occurred to anyone to question the Bolsheviks occupation of the palace of the ballerina Kshesinskaya and the Smolny Institute?

Generally speaking, the Russian democratic revolution broke out in the early spring of the 1917 quite unexpectedly for all its political subjects both inside the empire and outside its boundaries. It was a spontaneous, truly grass-roots movement both in Petrograd and on the outskirts of the empire. Suffice it to say that a month before the start of the revolution Lenin, who then was in emigration in Switzerland, publicly voiced his doubts about the chances for the politicians of his generation (i.e., 40 and 50-year-olds) to live to see a revolution in Russia. However, it was the radical Russian politicians who were the fastest to change their ways and ready to ride the revolution (as we have already said, with the use of the German assistance).

All in all, the Russian revolution was not accidental. It is even strange that it should not have broken out, say, one year earlier: all the social, political, and national problems in the Romanov empire had reached their limits, while from the formal, economic perspective, the industry was developing dynamically, and the stock of weapons and ammunition had considerably increased. Yet the utter inefficiency of the central power and the corruption of the elite, unavoidable under any autocracy, took their toll. Following that, the deliberate corruption of the army, the undermining of the rear, the sabotage of any attempts at constructive solutions of the urgent problems, together with the incurable chauvinistic centralism typical of virtually all Great Russian political forces, aggravated the crisis. During the campaign of 1917, the Entente troops were supposed to start a simultaneous general offensive on all European fronts, but the Russian army proved to be unprepared. Consequently, in April the attacks of the Anglo-French forces at Rheims failed, the casualties exceeding 100,000 in dead and wounded. In July, the Russian troops attempted an offensive in the direction of Lviv, but eventually had to retreat from Galicia and Bukovyna, and yield Riga in the north, almost without resistance. Finally, the battle at Caporetto in October resulted in a disastrous defeat of the Italian army. 130,000 Italian men were dead, another 300,000 were taken captive. Only the English and French divisions, urgently shipped from France, were able to stabilize the front and prevent Italy from withdrawing from the war. And finally, after the November uprising in Petrograd, when the Bolsheviks and left social revolutionaries came to power, an armistice was declared on the East front – first de facto and then de jure, and not only with Russia and Ukraine, but Romania as well.

Such changes on the Eastern front were to a large degree possible due to the funds which were allotted by Germany for the demoralization of the Russian army from the rear. The military operations on the Eastern front, prepared on a large scale and executed with great success, were considerably facilitated by the undermining activities from within Russia, conducted by the Ministry of foreign affairs. “Our chief goal in this activity was to further strengthen the nationalist and separatist sentiments, and support the revolutionary elements. We are continuing this activity even at present, and completing an agreement with the political division of the General Staff in Berlin” (Captain von Huelsen).

“Our joint efforts have yielded considerable results. Without our constant support, the Bolshevist movement could have never reached the scale and influence it now has. Everything testifies to the further growth of this movement.” These were the words of German secretary of state, Richard von Kuehlmann, written on Sept. 29, 1917. It was a month and a half before the Bolshevik revolt in Petrograd. Von Kuehlmann knew what he was writing about. He was an active participant in all those events; a little later he was to conduct peace negotiations with Bolshevik Russia and the Ukrainian People’s Republic in Brest in the early 1918. He controlled the huge financial current, going into the tens of thousands of German marks, and also had contacts with a number of key characters in this historic drama. “I have the honor of asking Your Excellence to allot a sum of 15 million marks at the disposal of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for political propaganda in Russia, referring this sum to paragraph 6, section II of the extraordinary budget. Depending on the development of events, I would like to stipulate in advance a possibility of addressing Your Excellence again in the nearest future with the view to allotting additional monies,” wrote von Kuehlmann on Nov. 9, 1917.

As we can see, no sooner had news of the Petrograd revolt (to be labeled the Great October Revolution) arrived than Kaiser Germany allotted new funds for propaganda in Russia. This money went first and foremost to support the Bolsheviks, who first demoralized the army, and then withdrew the Russian Republic from the war, thus freeing millions of German soldiers for operations in the West.

Yet managed to preserve the image of unselfish revolutionaries, romantic Marxists, until this very day. Even now, not only “official” adepts of the Marxist-Leninist creeds, but also a certain proportion of the non-party left intellectuals, are convinced that Lenin and his adherents were sincere internationalists and noble champions of the popular cause.

On the whole, we can observe a curious situation. In 1958, Oxford University published the secret documents of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kaiser Germany (this is where von Kuehlmann’s telegrams come from, and where one can find scores of no less significant texts dating back to the First World War), which proved the massive financial and organizational assistance rendered by the German authorities to the Bolsheviks.

Germany’s goals were obvious. The radical revolutionaries were to undermine the military potential of one of the principal rivals of the central powers, to which Germany also belonged, i.e., the Russian empire. Thousands of books on the subject have been published, providing other convincing evidence. Yet even today not only communist historians, but also a great number of liberally-minded researchers, will deny self-evident historical facts. Here is some more evidence provided by the German secretary of state von Kuehlmann: “Only when the Bolsheviks began to receive constant investments from us via various channels and under various labels, were they able to firmly establish their major printed organ, Pravda, to develop active propaganda, and to considerably enlarge their party base, which was rather narrow at the beginning” (Berlin, Dec. 3, 1917). Indeed, party membership grew 100 times only within a year after overthrowing Tsarism! As far as Lenin’s personal stand goes, this is how Colonel Walter Nicolai, head of German military intelligence service in the times of the First World war, described him in his memoirs: “Like anyone else, at that time I knew nothing about Bolshevism; as for Lenin, I only knew that he was living in Switzerland as a political emigrant, under the cryptonym ‘Ulianov’ he provided my service with valuable information on the situation in Tsarist Russia against which he was fighting.”

In other words, without constant assistance from the Germans, the Bolsheviks would hardly have become one of the leading Russian parties in 1917. This would mean a completely different development of events, probably much more anarchical, which would have hardly resulted in the establishment of a dictatorship, let alone a totalitarian regime. The most likely scenario is a different version of the disintegration of the Russian empire, as WWI was primarily about the ruin of empires. Thus, the independence of Finland and Poland was de facto a fait accompli some time around 1916.

The Russian empire, or even the Russian republic, would hardly have become an exception from this process of collapse triggered by the First World War. Suffice it to remember that Britain was forced to grant independence to Ireland, India rushed for its independence just after WWI, and so on, and so forth. And this revolution itself was to a point marked by the national-liberation struggle, as it was the Life Guards Volhynia Regiment that was the first to rebel against autocracy in the early 1917. As to the Bolsheviks, at that time they were a minute party, hardly known to anyone else (four thousand members, mostly in exile and emigration). They had no say in overthrowing Tsarism.

Assistance did not stop after Lenin’s government came to power. “You are free to operate large sums, as we are extremely interested in the stability of the Bolsheviks. You have Riesler’s funds at your disposal. If necessary, wire us how much more you need.” (Berlin, May 18, 1918). As usual, von Kuehlmann calls a spade a spade as he addressed the German embassy in Moscow. The Bolsheviks stood fast, and in the fall of 1918 they threw huge sums from the Russian imperial treasury, which they had seized, into revolutionary propaganda in Germany, with the hope to inciting the world revolution.

The situation in Germany was a mirror image of the one in Russia. In early November, 1918, the revolution did break out there. Money, weapons, and qualified professional revolutionaries shipped in from Moscow and played their role. Yet the local communists failed to lead this revolution. Subjective and (more importantly) objective factors worked against them. A totalitarian regime was established in Germany only 15 years later, but this is a different topic. Meanwhile, in 1921, in the democratic Weimar Republic the renowned social democrat Eduard Bernstein published in his party’s central organ Vorwaerts an article headed “A Shady Story.” In it, he related that as far back as December 1917, he received an affirmative answer from "a certain competent person” to the question of whether Germany had given money to Lenin. According to his data, the Bolsheviks alone were paid more than 50 million German marks in gold. Later, this sum was officially mentioned during the session of the Reichstags committee on foreign policy. Responding to the accusations of libel from the communist press, Bernstein suggested that they sue him, after which the campaign instantly stopped. As Germany was in a bad need of friendly relations with Soviet Russia, the discussion of this topic in the press ended abruptly.

Aleksander Kerensky, one of the Bolshevik’s chief political opponents, deduced from his own investigation of the case, that the sums received by the Bolsheviks before and after coming to power totaled 80 million German marks in gold. As a matter of fact, Ulianov-Lenin never even tried to conceal this from his party colleagues. Thus, in November, 1918, at the meeting of the All-Russian Central Executive Committee (a Bolshevist quasi-parliament), the Bolshevik leader said: “I am often accused of having carried out our revolution with German money; I do not deny it, but instead, with the Russian money, I’m going to carry out the same revolution in Germany.” And he tried to do so, throwing away tens of millions of roubles. However, he failed: the German social democrats, unlike their Russian counterparts, saw which way the wind was blowing and managed to arrange for a timely assassination of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. This was followed by the disarmament of the “red guards” and physical extermination of their leaders.

They had no other way out of the situation. Maybe, if Kerensky had mustered his courage and ordered to shoot Smolny together with all of its “red” inhabitants, even the Kaiser’s millions wouldn’t have helped them. We might as well round off here, should it be not for a piece of information in The New York Times of April, 1921, stating that in 1920 alone, 75 million Swiss franks were sent to Lenin’s account in one of the Swiss banks. According to the newspaper, Trotsky had 11 million dollars and 90 million franks on his accounts, Zinoviev – 80 million franks; the “knight of the revolution,” Dzerzhynsky, had 80 million, while Ganetsky-Fuerstenberg had 60 million franks and 10 million dollars. Lenin, in his secret note to the Cheka leaders Unschlicht and Bokiy of April 24, 1921, demanded that they find the source of the information leak. However, it was never established.

Was this money also meant for the world revolution? Or is it a kind of kickback from the politicians and financiers of those countries where Lenin and Trotsky’s “red horses” were not ordered to go? One can only hypothesize. Even now a considerable proportion of Lenin’s papers is kept top secret [...].

Quoted from: 

See also:

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Swing Trading - Rules and Philosophy | Linda Bradford Raschke

My style is based on the 'Taylor Trading Technique', a short-term method for trading daily price movements that relies entirely on odds and percentages. It is a method as opposed to a system. Very few people can blindly follow a system, though many find it easier to be discretionary in a systematic way. 
 
 
[...] Because of the short-term nature of this technique, swing traders must adhere to some very basic rules, including: 
  • If the trade moves in your favor, carry it overnight--the odds favor follow-through. Expect to exit the next day around the objective point. An overnight gap presents an excellent opportunity to take profits. Concentrating on only one entry or one exit per day relieves the pressure. 
  • If your entry is correct, the market should move favorably almost immediately. It may come back to test and/or exceed your entry point a little, but that's OK. 
  • Do not carry a losing position overnight. Exit and play for better position the next day. 
  • A strong close indicates a strong opening the following day. 
  • If the market doesn't perform as expected, exit on the first reaction. 
  • If the market offers you a windfall of big profits, take them to the bank on the close. 
  • If you are long and the market closes flat, indicating a lower opening the following day, scratch or exit the trade. Play for better position the next day. 
  • It is always OK to scratch a trade! 
  • Use tight stops when swing trading (wider stops when trading trend). 
  • The goal always is to minimize risk and create "Freebies." 
  • When in doubt--get out! You have lost your road map and your game plan! 
  • Place your orders at the market. 
  • When the trade isn't working, exit on the first reaction. ANTICIPATE!
 
Traders Laboratory (2007) - Taylor Trading Technique

How does one anticipate entry? The following may be indicators of a buy day or a sell day:

The Count: Start searching for a buying day 2 days after a swing high or, conversely, a shorting day 2 days after a swing low. Ideally, the market will move in complete 5-day cycles. (In a strong trend, the market will move 4 days in the primary direction and only 1 in reaction. Thus, one must seek entry 1 day earlier.)
 
"Check Mark" on the Test: The potential entry is sought opposite, or contrary to, the previous day's close. If looking to buy (sell), one first wants the market to "test" the previous day's low (high), preferably early in the day, and then form a trading pattern that looks like a "check mark" (see examples). This pattern sets up and establishes a "double stop point" or strong support. If entering a market with only a "single stop point" or support formed by today's low only, exit on the same day--the trade is clearly against the trend.

Close vs. Open: The close should indicate the following day's opening. When a market opens opposite what is expected or indicated by the trend, one may first look to "fade" it--but must take profits quickly. Then look to reverse!

Support (Resistance): Is today's support (resistance) higher or lower than yesterday's?

Swing Measurements: Where is the market relative to the last swing high or low? Look for swings (up or down) of equal length, and for retracements of equal percentage.

No matter in what time frame, always look for supply at tops and support at bottoms. Penetrations should be accompanied by volume and activity. Expect trends, either up or down, to last for either 2 or 4 weeks. The following conditions are fairly reliable indicators for the start of one of these trends (I personally skip the first buy or sell swing when one occurs because the move ensuing could be quite strong): 
  • Narrowest range in the last 7 days 
  • 3 consecutive days with small range
  • The point of a wedge
  • A breakaway gap 
  • A rising ADX (14-period) above 32
Practice: Because a certain amount of confidence in any technique is required to trade it consistently, paper trading can cultivate the faith necessary to recognize and trade pattern repetition. Although the temptation to try too many different styles and patterns always exists, one must strive ultimately to trade in just one consistent manner or at least to integrate techniques into your own unique philosophy.
 
System Characteristics: Certain points about trading short-term swings deserve note. Understanding the nature of short-term systems can help you recognize the psychological aspect of trading. When consistently following a short-term system, you should expect a very high win/loss ratio. Though the objectives with this style of swing trading appear conservative, you will almost always incur "positive slippage". In all systems, winners are skewed. Even though making steady profits, 3-4 really big trades may actually make the month. It is vitally important to always "lock in" your trades. Don't give back profits when short-term trading. You may be astonished at just how big some winners may be from catching the swings "just right!"
 
[...] Finally, I want to leave you with what I believe are two Golden Rules, applicable to all traders but, of essential importance to short-term swing traders: 
  • NEVER, ever, average a loss! Sell out if you think you are wrong. Buy back when you believe you are right.
  • NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to anyone else's opinion! Only YOU know when your trade isn't working.
 
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Thursday, September 22, 2022

The Sun and the Moon | Jack Gillen

The Sun is an energy planet. It gives and takes energy. A solar cycle is 365.25 days. It affects the stock market every 30 days, as the Sun transits through the 12 signs of the zodiac. The Sun also has an 11-year solar cycle in which Sun-spot activity peaks, followed by five and a half years of solar flares, a period of more or less calm with respect to the Sun’s surface. And during this period the Sunspot areas emit a wide range of intense radio and electromagnetic radiation of various types, affecting people and conditions of the planet Earth. This has been researched not only by astrologers but by astronomers. It has a definite effect on the stock market, commodities, and other areas related to the stock market.

As in all living matters it seems to affect mundane things like corporations and the stock market in the same way. This is to say that with regard to the birth month and the birth date, six months prior to the birth date the solar cycle is high, giving energy and pushing the related company forward [Example 1]. The Sun also is a planet associated with the ego, appearance and personality. Six months prior to the birth date, the company is brought out before the public. The birth date to six months after, the energy flow is low it becomes weaker and this affects the stock market in the same way. 

As an example, the stock market was born May 17, 1792. So the months of May through November relate to low activity, affecting the market's price and structure. As we go from December through May, we go through the high cycle, the up period of the Sun. But there are many cycles of the Sun that affect different areas of the stock market as the Sun affects each house with relation to the buying public. In each six-month period of the year we will also find a close relationship between price. movement and volume from Aquarius to Leo, or from February to the last two weeks of July. Looking at example 1, we find that the birth month and the Sun cycle six months prior to the birth month is at a high level; six months after the birth date, it is at a low level.

In Example 2 we take the Midheaven aspect to the Ascendant. We can see in Example 2 that the chart of the stock exchange starts its up level in the sign of Aquarius and its down level begins in the sign of Leo. So these are the two breaking points within a year: under Aquarius and under Leo as the Sun transits these signs. The low part of the chart, which is the Nadir, is the sign of Libra. This will generally be the low point of the year, as October would always represent low price. low volume, in which the opposite point to the Midheaven is Aries. This would be affected by the planet represented at the Midheaven. However, in April, under no afflictions, this would be a great month where records would be set in the areas of volume and prices.

As we start with Aquarius, this would run from the last two weeks of January through the first two weeks of July. However, as the cycle proceeds through Pisces, which is a weak sign, it would represent a weak month for volume. From the latter part of March through April and May, and even into June, these could be above average months for prices and volume. Now, as the Leo portion is activated from July through October, these are very weak months. You cannot expect too much in the way of prices or volume. If there is any weakness in the market it will more or less have a breakdown during these months. Not only are we in the six-month period after the birth date but we also have the effect in the Leo portion of the house when the Sun is moving downward towards the Nadir, which is the cusp of the fourth house. The Midheaven is always the cusp of the tenth house. 

So the low points in this pattern would mainly be in February through Aquarius and in August when it drops down, with a peak at the Midheaven which would be in April under the sign of Aries.

The six-month cycle tends to extend from the Aquarius portion to the Leo portion and, again, from the Leo point to the February point prices tend to follow the volume curves from these aspects, with the weaknesses in the February-March, July-August and October-November periods. Therefore, in judging the stock market as to whether it will turn up or down, it is best to look at the Sun and the aspects pertaining to the Sun. If the Sun is under heavy affliction, these periods represent a bearish market. In good aspect, it will be bullish. In the good periods moving upward toward the Midheaven, it will be higher than normal. Moving toward the lower section, it will be lower than normal. This is why there will be so many depressions, recessions, panic and fear in the stock exchange in the latter part of the year as October approaches.

 
The Sun and the Moon - The Key to Speculation. 

The Sun's aspect and influence on the market will also affect a lot of stocks because individual stocks are affected by the movement of the Dow-Jones Industrial. You have to relate a 50 percent mark-up on a bullish market and take away 50 percent of an individual stock if the market is bearish. You can only give a stock 25 percent on its own merit. This means if the market is bad and the stock shows an indication of moving up, the price ratio as far as at what price to sell should be at a 25 percent profit. There are other indications, though, at which you could go for a 50 percent profit if the earnings are extremely high. A lot of gold and silver stocks will generally do the opposite in a bad market, and go all the way up. But if the market is bad and the Sun cycle is moving into that low period, you want to go short, or short at 50 percent from its point at that degree at that time, when the market shows indications of falling backwards. The Sun is a minor influence in relation to the overall picture of the market; however, it affects the market every year and there will be a pattern to each period of the year as far as the Sun’s transit through that sign. This will also relate to individual stocks, which will show the same pattern. So do your homework. Any time you select a stock, find the month in which to buy it and the month in which to sell the month in which it is usually at its highest point. You can relate this to the Moon for its exact day for buying or selling.

The market is always influenced by the Sun pattern and it will happen year after year. From January to the last two weeks in July, market prices will trend upwards, and in the latter part of the year after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur and it affects volume as well as prices. However, it is important to realize the influence of the Sun in the chart of the New York Stock Exchange, and the Sun’s complete cycle.

Also, any corporation will be affected by certain cycles of the Sun through these signs. It is important to backtrack about 12 years during the pattern of the Sun’s cycle in order to see the pattern on which the company is being activated as far as the solar cycle.

The period of the Sun in Aries is usually from March 20 through April 19, Taurus, April 20 through May 20; Gemini, May 21 through June 20; Cancer, June 21 through July 22; Leo, July 23 through August 22; Virgo. August 23 through September 22; Libra, September 23 through October 22: Scorpio, October 23 through November 21; Sagittarius, November 22 through December 21; Capricorn, December 22 through January 19; Aquarius, January 20 through February 15; and Pisces, February 19 through March 20. These are the twelve signs with the transit of the Sun.

Again, let me stress the importance of the aspect of the Sun during these periods. If it involves a combination that relates to panic, crashes, recession or depression, then these months will be more intensified as far as the effect. If the transit is in a trine or a good aspect then the movement will be fess severe than under normal conditions.

There is one more important point to the solar cycle which is really the result of another cycle. This is the 19-year cycle of the motion of the plane of the Moon's orbit. It is the solar eclipse cycle. Although there is partial or total eclipse each year. usually there will be an eclipse near the same degree of the zodiac once every 19 years. This is a major eclipse. This major eclipse does have an effect on changes within the stock market and these changes have been reflected year after year during these cycles. Since this eclipse involves the Moon, it represents changes in relation from a Moon-Sun characteristic.

In this cycle the Sun makes a complete circuit of the sky and reaches the same Node at the same place on the ecliptic as shown in Diagram 3. This length of time is 6585.32] solar days, which is 48 years, 11.33 days. The shortest time required for the Sun to travel from and return to the same node is 346.6 solar days, an interval known as an eclipse year. It is listed on the calendar year because of the effect of the session which is known as a slow regression of the nodes around the ecliptic. Nineteen of the eclipse years contain 6585.4 days, which is precisely 223 synodic months, This is when the Nodes themselves become important in the predictions on the stock market.

The Moon affects changes and emotions. The daily influence on the stock market is related to changes of the Moon as it transits through each sign. Its effect on individual corporations would be the same. The Moon works in association with the planet Saturn. The Moon's phase cycle is from 28 to 29.5 days. Saturn’s cycle is 28 to 29,5 years, So, where it takes Saturn 2.5 years to transit one sign, it takes the Moon 2.5 days. If the Moon shows weakness in one sign as to where a stock would drop rapidly during that time, then when Saturn is also in the sign this would cause a 2.5 year downtrend for the stock. For example. if the Moon goes into Taurus and the stock goes up or down, it will do the same when Saturn is in that sign. So ever though a lot of aspects related to the Moon are minor, such as a stock might drop one-eighth to one-half, during its transit through any one sign, it does relate 10 a longer trend with the effects of Saturn.

In judging the daily influence of the Moon's dominance over a certain stock, bear in mind the influence of a transit of the Sun. If the Sun’s movement shows a high point for the Dow-Jones averages, then the Moon as a negative factor on the Dow-Jones will not have that much influence. If they are both at a high point, then the stock would rise extremely high on that day. So use the Moon as a daily indicator together with the 30-day movement of the Sun in each sign.

There are three cycles related to the Moon. One is called a Moon return. This cycle occurs every four years, when the Moon returns to the same position. (Check the four-year cycles day by day of a stock.) Another cycle is 27.5 days by the sign itself and 28 or 29.5 days by phase. These are the cycles represented by the Moon. The pattern of the four-year cycle is more dominant in a long-term trend relating to the stock market. The Moon also has a period in which it is stagnant, or void of course. 1t is a period when the Moon is changing from one sign to another without being aspected. From research this is not a period to purchase stock as it represents changes indicating a complete reverse. It is an unstable period of the Moon.

You can also determine monthly trends by watching the Moon under each cycle. In a period of 28-29.5 days, if the Moon falls square, conjunction, or opposite to planets passing over the Midheaven, this will give you an indication of good or bad returns following the week in relation to the stock market itself. It generally relates to people's emotions. The Moon's Nodes are also prominent indicators as far as the movement around the zodiac. If an individual stock has the Moon's North Node going toward the Midheaven, this indicates it will have movement. If it falls below the Ascendant, this generally causes it to move downwards. However, again, you have to use the other planetary movements to make a complete judgment. You cannot do it by the Nodes themselves, but the Nodes would reinforce any conditions shown as a downtrend in a certain stock.

The Moon and Sun in relation to each other show a type of speed that a certain cycle is indicated to move under because the effects of the Sun, the Moon and Earth are the prominent factors relating to the movement during the year, The other planets more or less determine tong-tern trends.

The speed of the Moon is affected by the tidal deformation of the Earth which produces a gradual increase on the Moon’s orbital speed which in turn makes the Moon slowly recede, causing a fast or a slow Moon which does reflect the aspects as far as movement of a cycle. IF it’s fast, there's a lot of action in the market, or if it's slow, then a change is predicted. In Diagram 4 we have a plain view of the Moon's orbit, We show that the Earth-Moon gravitational inter-reaction generates two bulges, more or less like a plastic bubble. The Earth has an axial rotation which is faster than the orbital rotation of the Moon, and the effect of this frictional drag is that the bulges arc carried around the Earth's rotation until a balance is established between the drag and the tide generating force.

The pattern of the four year cycle is more dominant in a long-term trend relating to the stock market. The Moon also has a period which is stagnant. This is called the Moon void of course. It is a period when the Moon is changing from one side to another without being aspected. This is not a period to purchase stock as it represents changes that could go completely reverse. It is an unstable period of the Moon itself.


In Diagram 4 we have equilibrium point 1. This is nearer to the Moon than point 2, and is therefore experiencing a stronger gravitational attraction than 2. Both 1 and 2 are displaced from the central line so that the forces along with 1 and 3 and 2 and 3 converge toward the center of the Moon. These two forces may be resolved at the Moon into components that act, in one case, along the central line toward the Earth; and in the other case at right angle into the direction of the Moon's orbit. The components acting toward the century add together, whereas the components in direction of the orbit are in opposition. Because the force along 1 and 3 is larger than along 2 and 3, this means a net unbalance force acting on the Moon in the orbital direction, which has the effect of accelerating its motion, moving it into an orbit of a larger radius; modern estimates indicate a recessional speed of about 3.2 cm. per year.

For accurate calculation, there are many Moon sign books and Moon calendars, that will give you the transit of the Moon each day, which you can relate to stock predictions. In the speed of a stock, we have the one-half cycle, the one-fourth, and the three-fourths, all of which indicate changes in relation to the up and down cycle price of each stock.

 
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