Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Where Coups are most likely to occur in 2017 | Washington Post

Here is a map highlighting where, according to a Washington Post-study, coups are most likely to occur in 2017: 

The Washington Post models looked for patterns in past coup attempts using data from 1960 to 2017 that were assembled using the Powell and Thyne coup data, Polity Project, World Development Indicators, Armed Conflict Dataset, global food prices (FAO), oil prices (BP) and the Gleditsch and Ward list of states. Among other things, the study estimates the probability of a coup based on type of government in place, personal freedoms, economic prosperity and access to the internet and other forms of communication. Below is a list of the 30 places that a coup attempt is the most likely in 2017. Burundi and Thailand came in at the very top of the list with a 12% and 11% chance of a 2017 coup, respectively, while Russia came in at number 20.