Monday, March 19, 2012

Alexander Tchijevsky's 'Physical Factors of the Historical Process'

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in early 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

Alexander Tchijevsky (1924): Physical Factors of the Historical Process. A short sketch. Kaluga [72 p.]


The principles of modern natural science have urged me to investigate whether or not there existed a correlation between the more important phenomena of nature and events in the social-historical life of mankind. In this direction, beginning in the year 1915, I have performed a number of researches, but at present I am submitting to the public only those which are directed towards determining the connection between the periodical sun-spot activity and (1) the behavior of organized human masses and (2) the universal historical process.

The following facts are based upon statistics gathered by me while submitting to a minute scrutiny the history of all the peoples and states known to science, beginning with the V century B. C. and ending with the present day.

1. As soon as the sun-spot activity approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sun-spot maximum and decreasing to its minimum during the epochs of the sun-spot minimum.
2. In each century the rise of the synchronic universal military and political activity on the whole of the Earth's territory is observed exactly 9 times. This circumstance enables us to reckon that a cycle of universal human activity embraces 11 years (in the arithmetical mean). (See. Fig. 2, 3 & 4, also historiometrical table, p. p. 30—31).
3. Each cycle according to its historical psychological signs is divided into 4 parts (periods):

I. Minimum of excitability ......3 years;
II. growth „ „ ........2 „
III. maximum „ „ ........3 ,,
IV. decline „ „ ........3 „
The number of historical events in each cycle are distributed approximately according to the data for 500 years (XV—XX cent.) in the following manner (in the mean):

I period ............5%;
II „ ...........20%;
III „ ............60%;
IV ,, …........15%;
(See diagram on p. 29).
4. The course and development of each lengthy historical event is subject to fluctuations (periods of activity and inactivity) in direct dependence upon the periodical fluctuations occurring in the sun's activity. Formula: the state of predisposition of collective bodies towards action is a function of the sun-spot periodical activity.
5. Episodic leaps or rises in the sun's activity, given the existence in human societies of politicoeconomical and other exciting factors, are capable of calling forth a synchronic rising in human collective bodies. Formula: the rising of the sun-spot activity transforms the people's potential energy into kinetic energy. (See Fig. 5).

My studies in the sphere of synthesizing historical material have enabled me to determine the following morphological law of the historical process:
6. The course of the universal historical process is composed of an uninterrupted row of cycles, occupying a period equaling in the arithmetical mean 11 years and synchronizing in the degree of its military-political activity with the sun-spot activity. Each cycle possesses the following historio-psychological peculiarities:
a. In the middle points of the cycle's course the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity. It is accompanied by an integration of the masses, a full expression of their activity and a form of government consisting of a majority.
b. In the extreme points of the cycle's course the tension of the all-human military-political activity falls to the minimum, ceding the way to creative activity and is accompanied by a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm, by peace and peaceful creative work in the sphere of state organizations, international relations, science and art, with a pronounced tendency towards absolutism in the governing powers and a disintegration of the masses. (See p. 51).

7. In correlation with the sun-spot maximum stand:
a. The dissemination of different doctrines political, religious etc., the spreading of heresies, religious riots, pilgrimages etc.
b. The appearance of social, military and religious leaders, reformists etc.
c. The formation of political, military, religious and commercial corporations, associations, unions, leagues, sects, companies etc.
8. It is impossible to overlook the fact, that pathological epidemics also coincide very frequently with the sun-spot maximum periods (see table on p. 47).
9. Thus the existence of a dependence between the sun-spot activity and the behavior of humanity should be considered established.
One cycle of all-human activity is taken by me for the first measuring unit of the historical process.

The science concerned with investigating the historical phenomena from the above point of view I have named historiometria.

At present I am working on a plan of organizing scientific institutes for determining the influence of cosmic and geophysical factors upon the condition of the psychics of individuals and collective bodies, and devising a working method for them.
A. Tchijevsky.
November, 1922.
10, Ivanovskaia, Kaluga, Russia.

Source: Sergey Smelyakov. Tchijevsky's Disclosure: How the Solar cycles Modulate the History (


When we study the secular and major peaks in stocks and commodities, we find that they all fall very close to solar cycle maximums, as maximum excitability drives maximum risk-taking. There are two relationships between stocks and commodities. They march together, when sentiment is pro-risk or anti-risk, spurring money into or out of both classes (versus safe havens of cash and bonds). But they also alternate secular manias, with stocks peaking more frequently than commodities. We also find a compelling relationship between solar cycles, inflation, growth and recessions. Peaks in inflation correspond to solar maximums, troughs to solar minimums. The biggest peaks in inflation correspond to commodity bull market peaks. In fact, we typically experience “growthflation” into solar peaks, i.e. both inflation AND growth.

So, drawing it all together, the period of rising solar activity (sunspots) into and around the solar maximum correlates positively with economic growth, inflation and risk-asset returns. What links these is risk-taking, spending and investing, or in other words, human excitability, which leads us back to Tchijevsky’s work. According to his studies, the period of declining sunspots after the solar maximum was one of change from activity to apathy. Perhaps appropriately, as the money stops circulating in the economy, this is typically a time of recession. Recessions follow solar cycle peaks, corresponding to the peaks in geomagnetism that lag solar maximums (