Sunday, March 12, 2017

Where did Steve Bannon get his Worldview? From my Book. │ Neil Howe

Steve Bannon - Trump’s chief strategist.

Neil Howe (Feb 24, 2017) - The headlines this month have been alarming. “Steve Bannon’s obsession with a dark theory of history should be worrisome” (Business Insider). “Steve Bannon Believes The Apocalypse Is Coming And War Is Inevitable” (Huffington Post). “Steve Bannon Wants To Start World War III” (The Nation). A common thread in these media reports is that President Trump’s chief strategist is an avid reader and that the book that most inspires his worldview is “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.

I wrote that book with William Strauss back in 1997. It is true that Bannon is enthralled by it. In 2010, he released a documentary, “Generation Zero”, that is structured around our theory that history in America (and by extension, most other modern societies) unfolds in a recurring cycle of four-generation long eras. While this cycle does include a time of civic and political crisis — a Fourth Turning, in our parlance — the reporting on the book has been absurdly apocalyptic.

I don’t know Bannon well. I have worked with him on several film projects, including “Generation Zero,” over the years. I’ve been impressed by his cultural savvy. His politics, while unusual, never struck me as offensive. I was surprised when he took over the leadership of Breitbart and promoted the views espoused on that site. Like many people, I first learned about the alt-right (a far-right movement with links to Breitbart and a loosely defined white-nationalist agenda) from the mainstream media. Strauss, who died in 2007, and I never told Bannon what to say or think. But we did perhaps provide him with an insight — that populism, nationalism and state-run authoritarianism would soon be on the rise, not just in America but around the world.

Because we never attempted to write a political manifesto, we were surprised by the book’s popularity among certain crusaders on both the left and the right. When “The Fourth Turning” came out, our biggest partisan fans were Democrats, who saw in our description of an emerging “Millennial Generation” (a term we coined) the sort of community-minded optimists who would pull America toward progressive ideals. Yet we’ve also had conservative fans, who were drawn to another lesson: that the new era would probably see the successful joining of left-wing economics with right-wing social values. Beyond ideology, I think there’s another reason for the rising interest in our book. We reject the deep premise of modern Western historians that social time is either linear (continuous progress or decline) or chaotic (too complex to reveal any direction). Instead we adopt the insight of nearly all traditional societies: that social time is a recurring cycle in which events become meaningful only to the extent that they are what philosopher Mircea Eliade calls “reenactments.” In cyclical space, once you strip away the extraneous accidents and technology, you are left with only a limited number of social moods, which tend to recur in a fixed order.

Along this cycle, we can identify four “turnings” that each last about 20 years — the length of a generation. Think of these as recurring seasons, starting with spring and ending with winter. In every turning, a new generation is born and each older generation ages into its next phase of life.
The cycle begins with the First Turning, a “High” which comes after a crisis era. In a High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if many feel stifled by the prevailing conformity. Many Americans alive today can recall the post-World War II American High (historian William O’Neill’s term), coinciding with the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy presidencies. Earlier examples are the post-Civil War Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution High of Democratic Republicanism and Era of Good Feelings.

The Second Turning is an “Awakening”, when institutions are attacked in the name of higher principles and deeper values. Just when society is hitting its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of all the social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Salvation by faith, not works, is the youth rallying cry. One such era was the Consciousness Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s. Some historians call this America’s Fourth or Fifth Great Awakening, depending on whether they start the count in the 17th century with John Winthrop or the 18th century with Jonathan Edwards.

The Third Turning is an “Unraveling”, in many ways the opposite of the High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Third Turning decades such as the 1990s, the 1920s and the 1850s are notorious for their cynicism, bad manners and weak civic authority. Government typically shrinks, and speculative manias, when they occur, are delirious.

Finally, the Fourth Turning is a “Crisis” period. This is when our institutional life is reconstructed from the ground up, always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. If history does not produce such an urgent threat, Fourth Turning leaders will invariably find one — and may even fabricate one — to mobilize collective action. Civic authority revives, and people and groups begin to pitch in as participants in a larger community. As these Promethean bursts of civic effort reach their resolution, Fourth Turnings refresh and redefine our national identity. The years 1945, 1865 and 1794 all capped eras constituting new “founding moments” in American history.
Just as a Second Turning reshapes our inner world (of values, culture and religion), a Fourth Turning reshapes our outer world (of politics, economy and empire).

September 11, 2001: The sinister Neocon Project for a New American Century, engineering "some
catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor
" — one generation ahead of time
(HERE).

In our paradigm, one can look ahead and suggest that a coming time period — say, a certain decade — will resemble, in its essential human dynamic, a time period in the past. In “The Fourth Turning,” we predicted that, starting around 2005, America would probably experience a “Great Devaluation” in financial markets, a catalyst that would mark America’s entry into an era whose first decade would likely parallel the 1930s. Reflecting on the decade we’ve just lived through, we can probably agree that the 1930s parallel works well. In the economy, both decades played out in the shadow of a global financial crash, and were characterized by slow and disappointing economic growth and chronic underemployment of labor and capital. Both saw tepid investment, deflation fears, growing inequality and the inability of central bankers to rekindle consumption.

In geopolitics, we’ve witnessed the rise of isolationism, nationalism and right-wing populism across the globe. Geostrategist Ian Bremmer says we now live in a “G-Zero” world, where it’s every nation for itself. This story echoes the 1930s, which witnessed the waning authority of great-power alliances and a new willingness by authoritarian regimes to act with terrifying impunity. In social trends, the two decades also show parallels: falling rates of fertility and home-ownership, the rise of multi-generational households, the spread of localism and community identification, a dramatic decline in youth violence (a fact that apparently has eluded the president), and a blanding of pop youth culture. Above all, we sense a growing desire among voters around the world for leaders to assert greater authority and deliver deeds rather than process, results rather than abstractions.

September 1, 2005: FEMA-camp, New Orleans, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (HERE).

We live in an increasingly volatile and primal era, in which history is speeding up and liberal democracy is weakening. As Vladimir Lenin wrote, “In some decades, nothing happens; in some weeks, decades happen. Get ready for the creative destruction of public institutions, something every society periodically requires to clear out what is obsolete, ossified and dysfunctional — and to tilt the playing field of wealth and power away from the old and back to the young. Forests need periodic fires; rivers need periodic floods. Societies, too. That’s the price we must pay for a new golden age. If we look at the broader rhythms of history, we have reason to be heartened, not discouraged, by these trends. Anglo-American history over the past several centuries has experienced civic crises in a fairly regular cycle, about every 80 or 90 years, or roughly the length of a long human life. This pattern reveals itself in the intervals separating the colonial Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II. Fast-forward the length of a long human life from the 1930s, and we end up where we are today. 

America entered a new Fourth Turning in 2008. It is likely to last until around 2030. Our paradigm suggests that current trends will deepen as we move toward the halfway point. Further adverse events, possibly another financial crisis or a major armed conflict, will galvanize public opinion and mobilize leaders to take more decisive action. Rising regionalism and nationalism around the world could lead to the fragmentation of major political entities (perhaps the European Union) and the outbreak of hostilities (perhaps in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the Baltic states or the Persian Gulf).  

September 18, 2008: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke met with key
legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout. Bernanke reportedly told them: "If we
don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday.
" (HERE)

Despite a new tilt toward isolationism, the United States could find itself at war. I certainly do not hope for war. I simply make a sobering observation: Every total war in U.S. history has occurred during a Fourth Turning, and no Fourth Turning has yet unfolded without one. America’s objectives in such a war are likely to be defined very broadly. At the end of the 2020s, the Fourth Turning crisis era will climax and draw to a close. Settlements will be negotiated, treaties will be signed, new borders will be drawn, and perhaps (as in the late 1940s) a new durable world order will be created. Perhaps as well, by the early 2030s, we will enter a new First Turning: Young families will rejoice, fertility will rebound, economic equality will rise, a new middle class will emerge, public investment will grow into a new 21st-century infrastructure, and ordered prosperity will recommence.

"Prestige lasts at best four generations in one lineage."
Muqaddimah (1377), Ibn Khaldun.

During the next First Turning, potentially the next “American High,” millennials will move into national leadership and showcase their optimism, smarts, credentials and confidence. Sometime in the late 2030s, the first millennial will be voted into the White House, prompting talk of a new Camelot moment. Let a few more years pass, and those organization-minded millennials may face a passionate and utterly unexpected onslaught from a new crop of youth. Welcome to the next Awakening. The cycle of history keeps turning, inexorably (see also HERE).

The Global Financial Crisis catalyzed by the 2008 financial meltdown in the US was the most severe
economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. With public trust continuing to ebb, the
regeneracy phase of this crisis still seems years away. Most likely, this Fourth Turning will come
to an end in the late 2020s, just as the Generation Zero/Millennials will embark on careers
 
(HERE).

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Russell 2000 Index vs Galactic Cosmic Rays

Saturday, March 11:
Galactic Cosmic Rays (impacts per minute) │ Corrected for Pressure Data │ Shifted  + 7 CD
Update Monday, March 13:
Galactic Cosmic Rays (impacts per minute) │ Corrected for Pressure Data │ Shifted  + 2 CD
Very high energy gamma ray map of the Galactic Center region Sagittarius A* (pronounced Sagittarius
A-star
, standard abbreviation SgrA*). The color scale shows the number of gamma rays per pixel, while
the white contour lines illustrate the distribution of molecular gas. Their correlation points to a
hadronic origin of gamma ray emission. The right panel is simply a zoomed view of the inner portion (HERE).

SPX vs Jupiter 180° Uranus + Sun 0° Neptune | Gérald Langelier

SUN 000 NEP = Mar 01, 2017 (Wed)
JUP 180 URA = Mar 02, 2017 (Thu)

Source
: Gérald Langelier @ AstroTimeRatio (Mar 01, 2017)

SPX vs Declination of Mercury + Venus | March 2017

VEN Dec @ MAX = Mar 11 (Sat), MER Dec @ 0 = Mar 15 (Wed), MER Dec # VEN Dec = Mar 26 (Sun).

Saturday, March 4, 2017

SPX vs Galactic Cosmic Rays


Galactic cosmic rays are the most energetic of particles found in space. The most prevalent are high-energy protons, but as with particles from the Sun, there are also much heavier ions, ranging from the nuclei of helium atoms (atomic weight four, or four times the weight of a proton) to the relatively abundant ions of iron (weight 56). And they travel outward at speeds that can considerably exceed most particles of solar origin. The reason for the great energies and high speeds of cosmic rays, and why they include heavy ions such as iron, nickel and zinc, is that they are propelled outward from cataclysms far more violent than any large solar flare. The source of most cosmic rays is thought to be explosions of entire stars (supernovae). The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year period of varying solar activity including solar maximum where the solar wind is strongest and solar minimum where the solar wind is weakest. Galactic cosmic rays create a continuous radiation dose throughout the Solar System that increases during solar minimum and decreases during solar maximum. Because cosmic rays are electrically charged they are deflected by magnetic fields, and their directions have been randomized, making it impossible to tell where they originated. However, cosmic rays in other regions of the Galaxy can be traced by the electromagnetic radiation they produce. Supernova remnants such as the Crab Nebula are known to be a source of cosmic rays. In addition, most cosmic rays are confined to the disk of the Galaxy, presumably by its magnetic field. More HERE

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy and the Solar Cycle

Source: Huffington Post
Scientists at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim looked at the age of death of individuals born in Norway between 1676 and 1878 and compared the data to solar activity data. In addition to showing that individuals born during a solar maximum tended to die younger, the comparison showed that fertility was reduced in certain women born in years with high solar activity. In an unusual study, Norwegian scientists claim people born during periods of solar calm may live around five years longer than those born when the sun is feisty. They argue peak solar activity brings higher levels of ultraviolet radiation to Earth, which may increase infant mortality by degrading folic acid, or vitamin B9. Both of these are key to rapid cell division and growth that happens during pregnancy. The lifespan of those born in periods of solar maximum was 5.2 years shorter on average than those born during a solar minimum. High solar activity at birth decreased the probability of survival to adulthood,' thus truncating average lifespan.  

Source: Gine Roll Skjærvø, Frode Fossøy and Eivin Røskaft (2015) - Solar activity at birth predicted infant survival and women’s fertility in historical Norway. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society, Biological Sciences 282.

Climax of the Fourth Astro-Kondratiev Cycle | URA-PLU Squares 1787 - 2052

The astrological Kondratiev Cycle.

Christof Niederwieser (2015) - One of the most discussed prognosis models of modern futures studies is the Kondratiev Cycle. It postulates a regular pattern of upswings and downswings in the economy, ranging over 50 to 60 years. This cycle is based on collective paradigm shifts, caused by the emergence of new technologies that revolutionize both the economy and society at large.

[...]  To this day the Kondratiev model has remained popular. It’s one of the very rare macroeconomic theories that allow concrete long-term forecasts. And it vividly explains the major growth drivers of the last 200 years. There are different opinions about details like the exact time when the cycles start or end or the exact names of the leitmotifs. But many researchers agree that there is something behind these cycles. Nevertheless there are some critical points, especially methodological ones.

Thus, there is still controversy as to whether or not the wave pattern really shows up in empirical data. Statistics from different decades and countries are not directly comparable. They have to be smoothed out first. Methods of data aggregation change over the years. Different countries use different formulas to calculate indicators. The definition of industry sectors and market baskets are modified in the course of time. Nominal data have to be adjusted according to inflation rate or currency changes. The methods of data processing thereby significantly determine the final shape of the curve. And depending on the method used, the Kondratiev Wave may or may not be revealed.

Kondratiev’s followers elegantly evade this problem. When presenting a graphical chart of the cycle, they usually put the decades on the x-axis. But the y-axis remains unlabelled. Carlota Perez, Professor of Technology and Socio-economic Development, is one of the most renowned contemporary Kondratiev experts. She admits that “Indeed, the Long Waves actually cannot be verified at the macro-economic level. But if we look at the level of innovations and also include social aspects, the Long Waves are clearly visible – even if these changes don’t necessarily reflect in macro-economic data like the GDP or large waves overlap.”

[...] let’s scan astrology for a long wave planetary cycle that indicates the following pattern: new core technologies trigger a radical transformation of the economy and society, a revolution of power systems and thinking models, a profound collective paradigm shift. This pattern is typical for the Uranus-Pluto Cycle: New ideas and technical innovations (Uranus) disrupt established power systems and ideologies (Pluto) and become the new leitmotif for the masses (Pluto).

[...] The Astro-Kondratiev not only explains the major technical and social developments of the past centuries. It also allows for a concrete look into the future. What will come next after the Information Cycle has reached its climax? What socio-political implications can be expected in the forthcoming years? What current technical innovations might become the core technology of the Fifth Astro-Kondratiev that will start in the 2040s? In what larger pattern is the Astro-Kondratiev embedded and how can its morphology be described in more detail? These questions are highly significant for areas such as politics, corporate governance, strategic planning, innovation management and investments.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | March 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days: Feb 23 (Thu), Mar 02 (Thu), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 29 (Wed), Apr 03 (Mon).

SPX vs 24th Harmonic of Mercury's Right Ascension | March 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 01 (Wed), Mar 03 (Fri), Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 09 (Thu), Mar 12 (Sun), Mar 13 (Mon), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 22 (Wed), Mar 25 (Sat), Mar 27 (Mon), Mar 31 (Fri), Apr 05 (Wed).

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator | March 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 06 (Mon), Mar 12 (Thu), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 21 (Tue), Mar 29 (Wed), Apr 01 (Sat).

SPX vs True Lunar Node Speed | March 2017


Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 02 (Thu), Mar 08 (Wed), Mar 15 (Wed), Mar 17 (Fri), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 28 (Tue), Mar 30 (Thu), Apr 03 (Mon).

The Golden Fabric of Time and Phi in the Sky │ Nicholas Kollerstrom

Source: Nicholas Kollerstrom (2011) - The Golden Fabric of Time and 'Phi in the Sky'.
In: Correlation 27 (2), July 2011.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

SPX vs SoLunar Map | March 2017


Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are: Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 09 (Thu), Mar 12 (Sun), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 27 (Mon), Mar 31 (Fri), Apr 03 (Mon). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

The Dow's Dirty Dozen | Nautilus Research

The Dow Jones Industrial average hits 12 days of consecutive all-time highs.
Just one more day to go to a 100 year record: 1929, 1987, 2017.
Source:
Nautilus Research @NautilusCap (Feb 28, 2017)

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | March 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) in March are: Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 13 (Mon),
Mar 14 (Tue), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 23 (Thu), Mar 26 (Sun).
Previous CCDs are 
HERE

SPX vs Solar Activity | Sunspots + 10.7 cm Flux | Forecast for March 2017

Mar 01 (Wed) and Mar 05 (Sun) are the upcoming SoLunar Turn Days (HERE);
Mar 05 (Sun) and Mar 07 (Tue) the upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (HERE)

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

The “Gone Fishing” Market

Source: Bespoke (Feb 27, 2017)
The latest example of zero volatility in the market comes courtesy of the S&P 500’s intraday trading range. Over the last 50 sessions, the S&P 500’s average percentage spread between the intraday high and intraday low has been 0.540%. Going back to 1983, when our database of intraday data begins, there has only been one other time where the S&P 500’s 50-day average intraday range was narrower. That was back in early February 1994 when the average range got as low as 0.539%, so the current narrow range is close to a record. But it gets even better.  Barring a big intraday move tomorrow (greater than 1% – an intraday range we haven’t seen since mid-December), the S&P 500’s average daily range will drop below the record low of 0.539% that has been in place for nearly a quarter of a century.

The Skyscraper Indicator 1790 - 2015 │ Elliott Wave International


This market sentiment indicator has a reliable history that goes back nearly 200 years!
It's sending a signal today that's as clear as it's ever been.
Source: Elliott Wave International (Feb 27, 2017)
 
Cycles analyst Edward Dewey (1895-1978) was the chief economics analyst for the US Department of Commerce when he developed the "Skyscraper Indicator" in the 1940s: It correlates human optimism to the number of high-rise buildings under construction. When people are very optimistic, they tend to express their feelings in massive construction projects, especially very tall buildings, because they have a need to build toward the sky! Since this extreme optimism is reached at major market peaks, in the economy, severe economic downturns usually follow; not just declines in real estate prices. The world’s current tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai (828 m), nicely illustrates this process: It was built as a monument to the Gulf emirate’s boom in the middle years of last decade and opened in late 2009, just as the emirate plunged into financial crisis.

Experts note the 18-year financial cycle was disrupted by the First and Second World War,
but returned to its former state in 2006 (HERE)

It doesn't need a prophet to tell where the next bubbles are about to pop: Of all of the world's skyscrapers under construction, China is home to 53% of them and since 2016 China's highest buildings exceed the 'One World Trade Center' (417 m) in New York by 200 meters. The boom is on though in mid 2013 the construction of the planned 838 meter Sky City in south-central China was halted by the authorities for not having a building permission. A similar craze for high rise has gripped South Korea and India. India just finished building two skyscrapers and has 14 skyscrapers currently under construction. However, having survived the Arab Spring miraculously, it is this decrepit royal kleptocracy in Saudi Arabia that is now decorating Jeddah with a 1,007 meter high 'Kingdom Tower'. Let's have a look at what happened during recent high times in different places: The construction of the Taipei 101 (508 m) began in 1999 and was completed in 2004. The duration coincided without the recession in the early 2000s and the tech bubble while in 2010 the completion of the Burj Khalifa coincided with the current global financial crisis. The Asian economic crisis, currency devaluation and speculation in stock and property coincided in 1997-1998 with the completion of the Petronas Towers (452 m), the tallest buildings in the world at the time. Now the 18-Year Real Estate Cycle will again be due to peak and pop around 2016 (+/-). See also HERE

Source: The Visual Capitalist (Feb 11, 2016)