Saturday, June 6, 2015

Future Ups and Downs into 2065 | Samuel Benner’s Prophecies

Samuel Benner was a farmer from Ohio who first published his prophecies about price fluctuations in 1875. The 19th century was the time of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves and Cantor set. While mathematicians were looking for structures in mathematics, Samuel Benner was studying and writing about a model of ‘Time’ to forecast the future. He lived in an era of Axe Houghton Indices, the time when the Chicago Board of Trade was established and agricultural commodity trading was active business. Society was busy with agriculture and expanding railroads. This is why his workings were based on pig iron, corn, cotton and hogs. Along with agriculture came the essential science of weather forecasting. What years would be dry or wet? When to expect years of heat, storm and cold? Agricultural statistics was compiled and used to establish demand and supply patterns. It was then 140 years back Benner wrote that the future cannot be calculated based on agricultural statistics. Statistics compilation would remain always poor, irregular, manipulable, undependable and non predictive. For Benner the axiom “history repeats itself” implies a cyclical movement in human affairs, and as it is a generally received opinion that everything moves in cycles, especially in nature. 

 
Prediction of the future can only be done by studying the past. History repeats itself with marvelous accuracy in detail from one panic year to another. Samuel Benner was the first to show how history repeated systematically. He was vocal about the cyclicality of financial catastrophes and his model illustrated the crisis' of 1891, 1902, 1910 and even 1929, 1987 and 2003. However, 2009 was a big miss in his set of nested cycles (exactly 20 Lunar Node Cycles after the 1637 Dutch Tulipomania bust). Time according to Benner was a pattern, a rule that did not change because of war, panic or elections. It was relentless in nature. It was periodical and not haphazard. The rule was unchangeable, determinable. Failures in business were connected with ignorance of ‘Time’. Today one can judge Samuel Benner as a farmer or a genius, but that would not change the fact that he was one of the first to see the mathematical hierarchy in ‘Time’. The story of the Benner’s work is intertwined with his personal experiences of bankruptcy. He was a prosperous farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and then wanted to find out about the law of nature. He took the yearly average prices to smoothen the data. When he compared them he saw up and down yearly cycles repeating in a fixed sequence of a large cycle of 18-20-16 years and a small cycle of 9-10-8 years. The cycles low depicted reactions and depressions. According to Benner these were cast iron rules and he referred to them as ‘God in prices’.  

Benner discovered an 11 year cycle in corn and hog prices with alternating peaks at 4 and 6 year intervals. He also discovered an 11 year cycle peak in cotton prices and a 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 11, 9 and 7 years and peaks in a sequential order of 8, 9 and 10 years. He described a 54 Year Panic Cycle which arose from panics every 16, 18, 20 years, with this series repeating every 54 years, or as he explains, “it takes panics 54 years in their order to make a revolution or to return to the same order”. His book is one of the first examples of the development of cycles and periodicity theory in financial and commodity markets and was very popular amongst bankers and business men of the late 1800’s. His cycles and numerical sequences were effective throughout the 20th century, and can still be found to be operative today, predicting financial prices. Theorists will notice the similarities between his 11 year cycle and the sunspot cycle also of 11 years, something which has even been studied in current times by the Federal Reserve. Whether Benner was knowledgeable about this direct influence or not, he did make a connection through the weather and climate, and was likely aware of the earlier work on sunspots by Herschel, Jevons and others.

Benner never fully explained the basis of his cycle theories, but did state: "The cause producing the periodicity and length of these cycles may be found in our solar system … It may be a meteorological fact that Jupiter is the ruling element in our price cycles of natural productions; while also it may be suggested that Saturn exerts an influence regulating the cycles in manufacture and trade." Further, Uranus and Neptune: "may send forth an electric influence affecting Jupiter, Saturn and, in turn, the Earth … When certain combinations are ascertained which produce one legitimate invariable manifestation from an analysis of the operations of the combined solar system, we may be enabled to discover the cause producing our price cycles, and the length of their duration."

Later the larger 54 year cycle was also discussed in detail by Russian economist Kondratiev in 1925. Edward R. Dewey, Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, assessed Benner's pig iron price forecasts over a 60 year period. Remarkably, he regarded this cycle as showing a gain - loss ratio of 45 to 1, which was “the most notable forecast of prices in existence”.

Extending and updating Samuel Benner's cycles and correlating them with more recent US-stock market prices, pointed to the low in 2003, the high in 2010, and the minor crisis in 2011. This would then be followed by a rising stock market into 2018 and a depression in 2021. 

2015 in the 56 Year Funk Cycle

Friday, June 5, 2015

SPX vs North Node | Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting



Louise McWhirter presented her theory in 1938 in "Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting" (p. 7-8) as follows:

Whenever the North Node passes through Scorpio and Libra
[2012-2015], there is a transition period as the curve passes from normal, going from normal to high.

[…] The high point of business volume is reached when the North Node transits Leo
[2017-2018]. As the North Node goes through Cancer and Gemini, business volume is above normal, but slowly going to normal.

[…] Taurus
[2003-2004] is the transition point or normal point as the curve goes from normal to below normal in business volume.

[…] When the North Node enters Aquarius
[2007-2008], the low point of business activity has been reached. As the Node transits Capricorn [2009] and Sagittarius [2011], the normal position of the business curve is below normal going to normal.

[…] This is the natural position of the curve without the presence of secondary factors which can distort the curve favorably or unfavorably from one to twenty percent.

[…] The following secondary factors tend to lift the Business Curve:

(1) Jupiter conjunction the North Node.
[2009, 2016, 2023]
(2] Saturn trine, sextile, or semi-sextile Uranus.
[2002-2003, 2016-2017, 2025-2026]
(3) Jupiter in Gemini or Cancer.
[2000-2005, 2030-2035]
(4) Jupiter conjunction, sextile or trine Saturn and Uranus, when in aspect to each other.
(5) The North Node in Gemini.
[2013, 2016]
(6) Favorable aspects to Pluto.
[2013, 2016]

[…] The following secondary factors have been found to depress the Business Curve:

(1) Saturn conjunction, square or opposition the North Node.
[2013, 2016]
(2) Saturn conjunction, square, opposition, or semi-square Uranus.
[2012-2013, 2021]
(3) Saturn in Gemini. [2000-2003, 2030-2032]
(4) Uranus in Gemini.
[2025-2033]
(5) Uranus square, conjunction, or opposition the North Node.
[Jan 2015, Jun 2018]
(6) Unfavorable aspects to Pluto.
[Jan 2015, Apr 2019]

As the Node moved through Capricorn (2010) and Sagittarius (2011) the general economy approached a very high level of activity in Scorpio (2012), and should peak as the Node passes through the sign of Leo (2017). 

However, W.D. Gann associated the period of the Node in Libra (2015) also with stock market panics (HERE). Moving through the signs of Cancer (2018) and Gemini (2020), the economic activity is still positive but beginning to slow to more normal levels. 

The above chart of the SPX and the North Node in the zodiac signs clearly shows that in the past this basic theory was not always properly reflected in the stock market's movements. This has to do with other important astronomical cycles, e.g. the 19.86 Year Jupiter-Saturn Cycle, 19 Year Metonic Cycle, the different natured 18.61 Year Lunar Declination Cycle, the 18 Year Saros Cycle or the varying lengths of the Solar Cycle. Additional important "secondary factors" could be the amazing activities of central banks, especially during the past 40 years. Nevertheless, empirical research discovered a multitude of other interesting economic sub-cycles of 17 to 20 years length, never out-ruled by any human intervention. The Wave Length Index of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles lists the following:
 
Credits: Foundation for the Study of Cycles (1964): Catalogue of Cycles - Part I.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Gold vs Sun-Pluto Cycle


Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.


Unless otherwise stated all times on
this blog are always EST and EDT.

SPX vs Moon and Planets transiting 14 Degrees Cancer

NYSE Natal Chart HERE & HERE
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

On the evening of October 11, 1492 Columbus anchored at sea. In the distance he saw fires burning on La Hispanola when the Ascendant was at 14 degrees Cancer. George Washington was sworn in as President in the morning of April 30, 1789 around 9:00 when the Moon was passing 14 degrees Cancer. On July 4, 1776 (US-Independence Day) the Sun was at 14 degrees Cancer. On May 19, 1792 at the founding date of the New York Stock Exchange the Ascendant was passing 14 degrees Cancer. On April 3, 1848 a group of Chicago businessmen founded the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) when the Moon passed 14 degrees Cancer. Agricultural commodities often change trend when heliocentric Mercury, Mars and Venus pass 14 degrees Cancer, and Louise McWhirter's methodology is based on structuring monthly lunation charts with the Ascendant at 14 degrees Cancer.

SPX vs MOO conjunct SUN-MER-VEN-MAR

Monthly conjunctions of the Moon, the Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars.
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

SPX vs Mercury Latitude Cycle

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Upcoming Astro Phenomena - June 2015

The Astronomical Almanac - United States Naval Observatory (HERE)
Cosmic Cluster Days (HERE)
Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 11 (Thu), Jun 19 (Fri), Jun 21 (Sun), Jun 22 (Mon), Jun 23 (Tue), Jun 26 (Fri) 

Tidal Forces - SoLunar Map CITs (HERE)
Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 09 (Tue), Jun 13 (Sat), Jun 16 (Tue), Jun 20 (Sat), Jun 24 (Wed), Jun 27 (Sat) 

Bradley Siderograph CITs (HERE
Jun 09 (Tue), Jun 20-21 (Sat-Sun), Jun 27-28 (Sat-Sun)  

Venus declination @ 23.27 degrees (HERE)
Jun 02 (Tue) 

Venus Elongation Cycle (HERE)
Jun 06 (Sat) = Maximum Elongation East

Natural Trading Days (HERE)
June 21 (Sun) = Summer Solstice

Radio Flux 10.7 cm Forecast CITs (HERE & HERE)
Jun 10-11 (Wed-Thu), Jun 23-25 (Tue-Thu)

SPX vs Venus at Maximum Elongation East

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

HERE

SPX vs Mercury Stationary Direct

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.
HERE

SPX vs Jupiter 120° Uranus

June 22 (Mon) = Jupiter Trine Uranus (geocentric).
Calculated and charted with
Timing Solution
.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

SPX vs Planet’s Declinations out of Bounds

Declinations of Mercury, Venus and Mars exceeding the Sun's maximum declination (= ± 23.27 degrees) frequently correlate with market turns.
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Cosmic Cluster Days for June - July 2015

Based on the assumption that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are somehow related to financial market movements,
these Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) were derived from a weighted composite index. Upcoming CCDs are:

May 27 (Wed), May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 11 (Thu), Jun 19 (Fri),
Jun 21 (Sun), Jun 22 (Mon), Jun 23 (Tue), Jun 26 (Fri), Jul 05 (Sun), Jul 06 (Mon),
Jul 22 (Wed), Aug 11 (Tue)
Previous CCDs are HERE



SoLunar Map for June - July 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days:
May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 09 (Tue), Jun 13 (Sat), Jun 16 (Tue), Jun 20 (Sat), Jun 24 (Wed), Jun 27 (Sat), Jul 01 (Wed),
Jul 05 (Sun), Jul 09 (Thu), Jul 12 (Sun), Jul 16 (Thu), Jul 20 (Mon), Jul 24 (Fri), Jul 27 (Mon), Jul 31 (Fri), Aug 03 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps are HERE

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Update - SPX 2015 vs 1955 (Similarites = 87% - 89%)

For previous similarities in the 60 Year Cycle see HERE


Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE and HERE

Sunday, May 17, 2015

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days


A Major Signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above the Average Cosmic Noise Channel; a Minor Signal when it breaks
to the downside. Both have equal forecasting capacities, but generate different sequences.



Thursday, May 14, 2015

Is the Crude Oil Rally Doomed?

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors (May 8, 2015) - This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reached a 2015 high, rising above $60 before cooling to just below that. This marks the eighth straight week of gains. Investment banking advisory firm Evercore makes the case that the recent oil recovery is closely following the average trajectory of six previous cycles between 1986 and 2009. Although no one can predict the future with full certainty, this is indeed constructive for prices as well as the industry.

Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. The U.S. dollar, which has weighed heavily on commodities for around nine months, declined to its lowest point since mid-January. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil—not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities—much-needed breathing room.

The oil rig count continued to drop in April and is now at a five-year low. According to Baker Hughes, 976 rigs were still operating at the end of the month, down 11 percent from 1,100 in March and 47 percent from 1,835 in April 2014. Eleven closed this week alone. This spectacular plunge has had the obvious effect of curbing output and helping oil begin its recovery from a low of $44 per barrel in January. Production appears to have peaked in mid-March at 9.42 million barrels per day and is now showing signs of rolling over. 


A price reversal historically has occurred between six and nine months following a drop in the rig count. The number of rigs operating peaked in October and oil started to bottom in January.

Baker Hughes Oil rig count plunges to the lowest level since October 2010
The Saudis sent the market into a freefall in November when they decided to defend their market share
instead of propping up prices, and they show no sign of changing course.
The U.S. has almost 500 million barrels of crude oil in storage. That's by far the most oil in storage since record-keeping began in 1982.
Supplies have grown because of surging domestic production and restrictions on most crude exports.

"Brent Crude Oil price has most likely bottomed out!"
thinks Tiho of The Short Side Of Long

A sideways consolidation into late June is now likely.
Credits:
www.equityclock.com

Inflation-Adjusted Dow Up 130% From 2009 Low

Chart of the Day (May 13, 2015) - As the Dow trades approximately 1% below all-time record highs, this chart provides some perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900. There are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half after the dot-com peak of December 1999, the Dow is up a mere 12%. On the other hand, the inflation-adjusted Dow is now up a significant 130% from its financial crisis lows in 2009.

Friday, May 8, 2015

S&P500 vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

See also HERE

Shifted Eurodollar COT points to SPX Major High in August | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (May 07, 2015): I do not know why it works to have the EuroDollars COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do.  But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here.

I should emphasize that the relationship broke down during the Fed’s QE3, the $85 billion per month program of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet which started in September 2012 and then tapered down to nothing by October 2014.  During 2013 the once-nice leading indication seemed to be inverted for a while, and then the two plots got back into sync again starting in late 2013.  That was a frustrating time since I had come to trust its message so much when it was working well in 2011 and 2012. That just proves the point that no indicator is infallible, and one must continue to pay close attention to what is going on, just to make sure that everything is working as it is supposed to.

With the relationship back in sync now, it is appropriate to look ahead to a top due this summer, and some ugliness for stock prices this fall.  Ideally the top is due in early August, but there can be slight differences in the texture of the ED COT pattern and the actual behavior of the SP500. More HERE & HERE