Thursday, March 15, 2012
Ray Tomes: 5.54 Year Cycle in Oil Prices
Labels:
Crude Oil,
NeuralNetwork,
NN,
Ray Tomes
DJIA vs Sunspots
Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing
all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading.
The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point,
either up or down.
Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the
planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the
Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force
occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a helio-centric line-up with the
Earth at 00, 450, and 900, but lesser activity produces the well-known
Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks.
A very good
illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when
the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun,
increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning
point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square
the Sun.
Helio-centric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down. Certain
aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five
to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or
Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects
are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter.
Flux is a measure of the energy output of the sun, and is an excellent indicator of overall solar activity levels. It is associated with the 11-year sunspot cycle, but it varies a whole lot on a daily basis, as the chart illustrates.
So why could it be that rising solar flux would lead to rising stock prices, and vice versa? That is the deep and possibly troubling question. Some people have theorized that the fluctuations in the amounts of charged particles hitting the wiring in our brains can affect collective moods, just as they can affect electrical power grids and microcircuitry. That's as good of an explanation as any. I usually operate on the philosophy that if the correlation is good enough, no explanation of the root cause is necessary.
Here is something more to chew on: Perhaps it is not the radio flux that is really doing the job of affecting our brains' wiring, but rather the spikes in solar flares that seem to arise out of the low points in radio flux.
The next chart looks at the counts of "S Class" solar flares. One can see that the biggest spikes in the numbers of these flares tend to coincide with meaningful bottoms for stock prices. Those spikes also happen to arrive at minimum points for total radio flux, as if the surge in solar flares kicks off the next rising phase for that measure of solar activity. The DJIA's rise up out of the minor price bottom on Dec. 19, 2011 coincided with an upward surge in the number of these S-Class flares. Other spikes in flares in 2011 have also coincided with important lows, although not all price lows have flare spikes to explain them.www.mcoscillator.com
Labels:
DJI,
Market and Solar Activity,
Solar Cycle,
Sunspot Cycle,
Sunspots
Moon Wobbles
Labels:
AstroFin,
Lunar Eclipse,
Lunar Node,
Moon Wobbles,
North Node,
Solar Eclipse,
Sun
SoLunar Forecast for SPX
Nikkei vs 118 CD Cycle
This market is acting strange: the Nikkei has obviously already lost the correlation with the 118 CD Cycle. Possible reasons:
1. The semiannual variation of the geomagnetic field (http://www.ann-geophys.net/22/93/2004/angeo-22-93-2004.pdf).
2. The shift between the Cycle of Moon in Zodiac-Signs and the Cycle of angular Distance between Moon and Sun. The 'artificial' Calendar Days = Mean Solar Days (on which our market-timing models are usually based on) and the astronomical Lunar Days (based on the angular distance between Sun and Moon, see vedic Tithis) are out of phase.
Francis Bussiere noted that the correlation between stock markets and lunar cycle gets skewed every 8 solar months (http://astrocycle.net/wordpress/index.php/category/2-stocks/1-sp-500/), that is: every second Intermediate-Term-Delta Cycle.
If this is the case here again, stock markets may surge into March 22 New Moon and Spring Equinox.
1. The semiannual variation of the geomagnetic field (http://www.ann-geophys.net/22/93/2004/angeo-22-93-2004.pdf).
2. The shift between the Cycle of Moon in Zodiac-Signs and the Cycle of angular Distance between Moon and Sun. The 'artificial' Calendar Days = Mean Solar Days (on which our market-timing models are usually based on) and the astronomical Lunar Days (based on the angular distance between Sun and Moon, see vedic Tithis) are out of phase.
Francis Bussiere noted that the correlation between stock markets and lunar cycle gets skewed every 8 solar months (http://astrocycle.net/wordpress/index.php/category/2-stocks/1-sp-500/), that is: every second Intermediate-Term-Delta Cycle.
If this is the case here again, stock markets may surge into March 22 New Moon and Spring Equinox.
Labels:
Delta,
Francis Bussiere,
ITD,
Lunar Cycle,
NIKKEI
SPX vs Daily Moving Averages
This market is acting too strange: the SPX has advanced relentlessly since December 19, 2011 without any retrace < 1% into the February 29, 2012 high @ 1,378. And what do we get: a shy retrace of 36 points in 3 TD into the March 5.
The 5 DMA crossed the 13 DMA to the downside to find support on the 21 DMA and up we go again: on March 14 the upper resistance of the wedge was broken to the upside!
However, the VIX reversed from below its lower BB line the same day, and ended the day above it, generating an over-all sell signal for the SPX.
March 14 is 144-TD from the August 17, 2011 high. This 144 TD cycle oftentimes produces ST CITs.
The 5 DMA crossed the 13 DMA to the downside to find support on the 21 DMA and up we go again: on March 14 the upper resistance of the wedge was broken to the upside!
However, the VIX reversed from below its lower BB line the same day, and ended the day above it, generating an over-all sell signal for the SPX.
March 14 is 144-TD from the August 17, 2011 high. This 144 TD cycle oftentimes produces ST CITs.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
SPX vs ITD: #8 = Mar 12-14
Or will the polarity flip: The annual variation of the daily
average effective southward component as modified by the heliographic
latitude dependence of the dominant polarity of the interplanetary
magnetic field. The heavy line corresponds to a field that is inward
toward the sun 671/() of the time on March 5 and 33"/c of the time on
September 5. The light line corresponds to the reverse situation (http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/40/) |
Thursday, March 8, 2012
May 2013 = Bull Market High
The chart below shows the 13-Year and the 17 Year Cycles discussed in Bradley Cowan’s book Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory (p. 86 HERE) . It projects a bull market high to May 2013.
Labels:
13 Year Cycle,
17 Year Cycle,
AstroFin,
Bradley F. Cowan,
DJI,
NDX,
SPX
"Mark Of The Beast" Cycle of 666 Weeks (12.8 Years)
Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six (Revelation 13:18)
The ancient Hebrew writers of the Bible were master astrologers and undoubtedly aware of the cyclicity of panics. Living with the Chaldeans in ancient Babylonia for many years, St. John brought this base of knowledge with him when he warned in the Book of Revelation to beware the number of the Beast, 666.
This is one of the most reliable stock market cycles. Every 666 weeks it rocks the stock market with panics. 1962, 1974, 1987, and 2000 were just a few examples. This cycle has a clear astronomical correlation with the Golden Triangle and the Great Pentagram identified in this book.
The chart below is showing the 13 and 17-year cycles. Since 1915, these two cycles alone accounted for many of the largest panics and bottoms in the stock market. They are very reliable and directly correlated with a fractal planetary arrangement of the inner and outer planets on the Great Pentagram.
[see Bradley Cowan http://www.cycle-trader.com/pentagonal.htm]
The ancient Hebrew writers of the Bible were master astrologers and undoubtedly aware of the cyclicity of panics. Living with the Chaldeans in ancient Babylonia for many years, St. John brought this base of knowledge with him when he warned in the Book of Revelation to beware the number of the Beast, 666.
This is one of the most reliable stock market cycles. Every 666 weeks it rocks the stock market with panics. 1962, 1974, 1987, and 2000 were just a few examples. This cycle has a clear astronomical correlation with the Golden Triangle and the Great Pentagram identified in this book.
The chart below is showing the 13 and 17-year cycles. Since 1915, these two cycles alone accounted for many of the largest panics and bottoms in the stock market. They are very reliable and directly correlated with a fractal planetary arrangement of the inner and outer planets on the Great Pentagram.
[see Bradley Cowan http://www.cycle-trader.com/pentagonal.htm]
Labels:
13 Year Cycle,
17 Year Cycle,
AstroFin,
Bradley F. Cowan
Crude Oil and Recessions
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php
Earlier I wrote a short note on the relationship between crude oil prices and recessions. US Gas and Fuel Oil Expenditure (as a percentage of Total Personal Consumption) gives an even clearer picture of the relationship.
Every spike in Gas and Fuel Oil Expenditure over the last 40 years
has been followed by a recession — even the twin spikes in 1980 and
1981. One possible exception is the 2002-2006 rise which was only
followed by recession in late 2007. This was the era of the "Greenspan
bubble" when interest rates were held at low levels for an inordinate
length of time, fueling the global financial crisis in 2007/2008. I
guess most of us would have settled for a milder recession in 2005.
The weight of evidence favors another recession following the latest
oil price spike, though the Fed should have sufficient ammunition to
postpone this until after the election.
Update: Delta Pattern for SPX, NDX, FTSE & DAX
Major US and European Stock Indices will most likely correct sideways-to-up into March 12. Above the SPX. |
NDX. |
FTSE |
DAX |
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
SPX DMA Study & Delta Forecast
In the daily SPX the exponential 5 day
moving average (solid red line @ 1,362.59) crossed the 13 DMA (solid
blue line @ 1,362.59) to the downside.
DMA 5 exp (red)
DMA 13 (blue)
DMA 21 (Yellow dotted)
DMA 34 (green dotted)
DMA 55 (magenta dotted)
DMA 233 (green)
DMA 5 exp (red)
DMA 13 (blue)
DMA 21 (Yellow dotted)
DMA 34 (green dotted)
DMA 55 (magenta dotted)
DMA 233 (green)
- ST Low on March 6(= ITD #7 LOW) followed by a pop-up into March 7-8 (= ITD #8 HIGH?).
- March 9 Low (10 TD Hurst Cycle Low is due on Full Moon) and turn-up intra-day. Week should close @ around 1,360.
- March 12-15 High (= ITD #8 HIGH).
- March 22-25 Major Low @ around 1,300 (= ITD #9 LOW = MTD #10 LOW) followed by a
- Higher High in May 7 (= SLTD #3 HIGH = LTD #8 HIGH = MTD #11 HIGH).
Monday, February 27, 2012
Tides @ WP (NYC) Feb - May 2012
SPX vs Delta Cycles
Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1360. A
rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the
October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The May 2011 top was at 1373.
After that top is exceeded a drop of 50-70 points again becomes likely.
But even so I expect the market to move well above the 1400 level over the next few months.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
When a CME hits the Earth's Magnetic Field | Al Larson
A coronal mass ejection
(CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan.
22nd. At first the impact did not appear to be a
strong one: the solar wind speed barely lifted itself
to ~400 km/s when the CME passed by. Now, however,
in the wake of the CME, a dense and increasingly
geoeffective solar wind stream is blowing arround
Earth, setting the stage for possible auroras on
the night of Jan. 22nd.
Reference:
Al Larson aka Hans Hannula, Astrophysics & Chaos (Mar 30 1999).
Labels:
Al Larson,
AstroFin,
Astronomy,
Geomagnetism,
Market and Solar Activity,
Sunspot Cycle,
Sunspots
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
S&P 500 Price, Inflation Adjusted 1881 - 2012
Labels:
Inflation Adjustment,
Robert Shiller,
SPX
Natural Trading Days for 2012
... derived from the Equation of Time & the Declination of the Sun
Astronomical cycles such as the Mercury Cycles, the cycle of the star
Sirius, the Lunar Cycles, the Earth/Sun Cycles and the Equation of Time
(EOT) can be used for timing potential turn dates in the stock, forex and
commodities markets.
Earth in Perigee = Jan 05
EOT @ minimum = −14 min 15 sec = 11 February
SPRING EQUINOX = March 20
EOT @ zero = 15 April
EOT @ maximum = +03 min 41 sec = 14 May
EOT @ zero = 13 June
SUMMER SOLSTICE = June 20
Earth in Apogee Jul 05
EOT @ minimum = −06 min 30 sec = 26 July
EOT @ zero = 1 September
FALL EQUINOX = September 22
EOT @ maximum = +16 min 25 sec = 3 November
WINTER SOLSTICE = December 21
EOT @ zero = 25 December
EOT @ minimum = −14 min 15 sec = 11 February
SPRING EQUINOX = March 20
EOT @ zero = 15 April
EOT @ maximum = +03 min 41 sec = 14 May
EOT @ zero = 13 June
SUMMER SOLSTICE = June 20
Earth in Apogee Jul 05
EOT @ minimum = −06 min 30 sec = 26 July
EOT @ zero = 1 September
FALL EQUINOX = September 22
EOT @ maximum = +16 min 25 sec = 3 November
WINTER SOLSTICE = December 21
EOT @ zero = 25 December
Labels:
Apogee,
Equation of Time,
Equinox,
Natural Trading Days,
Perigee,
Solar Cycle,
Solstice,
Sun,
W.D. Gann
Monday, January 9, 2012
Juglar & Kitchen vs DJI
UBS
created an interesting chart using the Juglar cycle, Kitchin cycle, and
Dow Jones Industrial Average. According to Wikipedia: The
Kitchin cycle is a short business cycle of about 40 months discovered
in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin. The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment
cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clement Juglar.
Labels:
Clement Juglar,
DJI,
Joseph Kitchin,
Juglar Cycle,
Kitchin Cycle
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