Showing posts with label VIX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VIX. Show all posts

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | TomTheTrader

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 
 
 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:
 
This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is
93.22
Active fund managers are all-in.
 

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

S&P 500 vs VIX and Seasonal Patterns

Corrections and short-term market peaks often coincide with exceptionally low levels of market volatility.

 
Beware of the Ides of March: This year also coincides with the seasonal decline during presidential election years where the sitting president is running. Support levels to watch in the S&P 500: 4800 old ATH and 4600 near summer 2023 highs.
 

February’s last trading day historically bearish. DJIA and S&P 500 have been down 9 straight and 11 of the last 12. NASDAQ has tried to buck the trend, up 3 of last 4 years. Potential setup for historically bullish first trading day of March.
 

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Sunday, March 11, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle


The Delta Inversion Time Window opened with the Full Moon on March 01st (Thu), and currently suggests the following: The Intermediate Term Delta rotation inverted (compared to 4 lunar months earlier - details HERE) with the #1 Low on Friday, March 2nd, and a #2 High on Tuesday, March 13th. Then a #3 Low between Wednesday, March 28 and Monday, April 2 are likely (see also HERE). After a brief recovery (#4 High) another low in mid-April should be followed by new all-time-highs into May-June. If this inversion isn't done yet, we would only see some brief sideways-to-down movement into Tuesday, March 13th, followed by a further advance into the end of the month or early April, and another brief correction before new higher highs. Time will tell.


S&P 500 and DJI just forming congestion triangles while NDX keeps surging to new all-time-highs (HERE)? Next week is populated with contradicting solunar events and stock markets may simply chop side-ways-to-down into the New Moon (HERE)


Saturday, October 21, 2017

Russell 2000 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle


Next week the solunar bias for stocks remains positive. However, in the Russell 2000 Index the net outcome could be almost neutral, since the continuation of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle would suggest the following choppy market action: Oct 23 (Mon) dip-down, close near opening; Oct 24 (Tue) from morning high above Monday close, down for the rest of the day - possibly to low of the week; Oct 25 (Wed) up; Oct 26 (Thu) from morning high of the week, sideways-to-down to low above Tuesday; Oct 27 (Fri) sideways. Heavy Cosmic Clusters will be modulating the geomagnetic field during this current weekend, and preparing for a mixed mood setup next week (Oct 21 = MER par NEP, MER 150 URA, NEP 045 EAR, SAT 120 EAR - all heliocentric; Oct 22 = SUN into SCO, MAR into LIB, and MER cp JUP, MER cp SAT, VEN 000 MAR, VEN 180 NEP - heliocentric). On Oct 26 (Thu), Jupiter will conjunct the Sun, and from a heliocentric perspective the Earth will be opposing Jupiter, and Venus trining Pluto. US-stock indices are in the latter stage of the first and very bullish 10 Week Cycle within the 40 Week Cycle that started with the Solar Eclipse from the August 21 major low. This cycle may peak as late as Oct 30 (Mon), and is expected to bottom in early November. Afterwards the main indices should rise to new highs.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

In line with the 4 Lunar Month Cycle, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) turned up yesterday. The geocentric Bradley Index will sport a high on Dec 09 (Fri). Dec 10 (Sat) is a SoLunar Turn-Day and Dec 14 (Wed) a Cosmic Cluster Day

Thursday, July 14, 2016

VIX | Put/Call Ratio | AI Forecast | Extreme Greed

The VIX should turn up today, meaning the SPX turning sideways-to-down into Jul 20 (Wed).
The next lows in the VIX (= highs in the SPX) are likely Jul 14 (Thu), Jul 28 (Thu), and Aug 16 (Tue).
Source: CBOE
Source: CBOE
FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model.
Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC.
90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are now above the 20 Day Moving Average.
Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Sunday, July 3, 2016

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio | VIX | Fear & Greed Index | NR7

Jul 01 (Fri) = NR 7
The 4 Lunar Month Cycle suggests sideways-to-up of the VIX into Jul 6 (Wed) = sideways-to-down in US-Stock Indices

Near a top.
Source
: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

SPX: NR7 Inside Day | Bull Pennant Flag | Put / Call Ratio | VIX

June 21 (Tue) formed a narrow range inside bar - usually a trend continuation pattern (HERE).
Oscar
Carboni sees a Bull Pennant Flag on the daily ES (HERE).

The daily range was the narrowest of the last 8 trading days (HERE), and volume contracted.
Today a breakout of yesterday's range is  likely.
However, Brexit-Thursday (Jun 23) is the next solunar turn-day, and the market may just wait for that.
Room to the top.
Source
: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

SPX | VIX | CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio

The VIX opened and closed above the upper Bollinger Band. Stochastics (%k) at 83.11 hint to a short term reversal of the VIX.
The 118 CD Cycle suggests a 1-2 day countertrend.
The 3 Day MA of the Put/Call Ratio at 0.79 still offers some room to the downside for the SPX.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Saturday, November 7, 2015

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

At times inversions in the 4 Lunar Year Cycle overlap with inversions in the Lunar Year Cycle and 4 Lunar Month Cycle. The result is conflict
and confusion in the short-term Delta count. The problem with the above inverted Delta count for the SPX is of course that the Russell 2000
closed the last week on a high. The Delta count for the Russell 2000 suggests a continuation of the up-move into Nov 11 (Wed) followed by a
decline into Nov 23 (Mon). This outlook is supported by the 4 lunar month rotation in the VIX where stochastics hint to further decline. Nov
11 is also New Moon and a turn day in the SoLunar Map. Again, a high in the SoLunar Map usually corresponds with a short-term stock market low.
Erin Heim (Nov 05, 2015) - The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal.
This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA.
The Annual Cycle, the Presidential Cycle, and the Decennial Cycle are all strong into mid December, while the latter two project a major low
in Q1 2016 followed by new market highs. This would be in line with Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

SPX + VIX + CBOE Put/Call Ratio vs 354 CD + 118 CD Lunar Cycles

The exact length of the Lunar Year is 354.37 Calendar Days.
The third part of the Lunar Year (120°) is the Intermediate Term Delta Cycle (ITD) of 4 Lunar Months or 118.123 Calendar Days
(HERE).
The ITD Cycle inverted from the Mar 3, 2015 High to the Jun 29, 2015 Low but is now in sync with the Lunar Year Cycle.
That given, the direction of the SPX for the remainder of this week should be sideways-to-up.