Showing posts with label UBS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UBS. Show all posts

Friday, October 21, 2022

Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022 | 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle

UBS (Oct 11, 2022) - Nominal house price growth in the cities analyzed accelerated to 10% from mid-2021 to mid-2022, representing the highest increase since 2007. Four US cities — Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston — are among the top five with the fastest-growing prices.
 

Imbalances
are sky-high in both analyzed Canadian cities, with Toronto topping the index. Valuations in Frankfurt, Zurich, Munich, and Amsterdam also show elevated risks in Europe. In contrast, there is no bubble risk in the US cities. Since last year, mortgage rates have almost doubled on average across the cities analyzed. Alongside increased prices, this makes city housing much less affordable. A skilled service sector worker can afford roughly one-third less housing space than before the pandemic. 
 
 
In almost all cities, households have been leveraging up. Outstanding mortgages recorded the strongest increase since 2008. Debt-to-GDP is on the rise as well, reflecting the cheap financing conditions and weak economic growth since the pandemic. People have returned to the cities. Strong household formation and unaffordable owner-occupied housing drove demand for rental units. As a result, rents grew by 7% on average last year, making up all rental losses accumulated during the first year of pandemic. Higher interest rates, inflation, turmoil in the financial markets, and deteriorating economic conditions are putting the housing boom under pressure. In a majority of cities with high valuations, price corrections have either already begun, or are expected to start in the coming quarters [...] 

Edward R. Dewey & Edwin F. Dakin, 1947:
"No matter what index be used, this 18-year cycle rhythm seems one of the clearest,
most regular patterns revealed in our economic life.
"
 
In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin showed that 18.6 year real estate cycles have repeated over centuries: in times of inflation or deflation, whether interest rates are high or low, with or without trade barriers, with government subsidies, and with high, low or no taxes. Fred Harrison demonstrated considerable economic predictive power relating to this 18.6 year cycle pattern: 14 years up, interrupted by a mid-cycle dip, followed by 4 years down. In over two centuries, this cycle has only ever been disrupted by two world wars. The cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, or longer than 21.

Dewey and Dakin wrote: "The building cycle is so long that few people experience two complete cycles in their business life. Education, to be effective, must therefore be “book knowledge” rather than experience […] For many individuals, an unfavorable first experience means a lifetime tragedy […] The welfare of an individual is often determined by the time in which he was born. If he is old enough to start business at the low of a business cycle, which is accompanied by […] rising prices, his chances for success are very good. Conversely, if he is born at such a date that he starts in business at the peak of a building cycle, which is accompanied by falling commodity prices, his chances of success are small. Much of the success or failure of an individual is due to forces over which he has no control; but if he understands these forces, he may protect himself from the worst results of unfavorable combinations and profit personally from favorable combinations."
 
All cycles have the same characteristics, but different influences, and government intervention in markets cannot create or suppress the real estate cycles. Credit, created by banks, through fractional reserve banking, fuels the cycle. Each recession brings new rules and regulations to the banking industry, designed to stop problems and prevent abuses; each upturn brings new ways to profit by exploiting loopholes in those rules and regulations. 
 
Residential real estate is first to recover from a downturn. The mid-cycle slowdown is confusing: The 18-year cycle is so long that few people remember the last one, and when market expansion quickly resumes, people think everything is fine. But the coming downturn will always be much worse than a mid-cycle slowdown. In the final years of a cycle, authorities congratulate themselves on how well they are managing things. If banks know the government will bail them out, why be prudent in lending. Seeing huge returns of others, the masses rush into real estate investing, believing it never goes down until fear overtakes greed. Land values peak about 12-24 months before a recession. 
 
A peak in the building cycle usually follows peak in land values, but precedes the recession. Announcement of the next ‘world’s tallest building’ may well be the most reliable indicator of an approaching peak. Copper prices spike into the last years of each real estate cycle. In the US all recessions since 1960 have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The turning point in a cycle is often the collapse, or near collapse, of a major bank; some event will arise to cause doubt, but you’ll hear assurances that everything is okay. 
 
The crisis at the end always comes in an environment of rising interest rates, and the stock market is first to trough because of its far greater liquidity. Investors, speculators, and homeowners with little equity at the end of a cycle will always be wiped out. Always. Recovery takes years, not months. Historically, prices have dropped 20-30% from previous peaks. In the US the 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle is expected to peak and crash again around 2025 - 2026.
 
 
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Friday, January 8, 2016

DJIA In 4th Longest Bull Market Since 1900 - UBS: Sell Stocks, Buy Gold!

Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It’s a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the DJIA now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage [...] since 1937 the average downside in a 7-year cycle decline was 34%. 

[...] As of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market [...] In 2015, the bounce in gold was weaker than expected. However, in all these cases we made it clear that we just expect a bear market rally before resuming its dominant cyclical bear trend. Generally, our cyclical roadmap and our long-term call on gold of the last few years has not changed. A potential bottom in 2016 bottom could be a rather powerful bottom, since together with a four-year cycle low we have also an eight-year cycle low projection for this year. In this context we expect a potential 2016 low in gold to be the basis of a new multi-year bull market. Source: UBS (Jan 06, 2016)

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Decennial Cycle and Presidential Cycle in 2013


Michael Riesner and Marc Müller: Technical Outlook 2013 - Since 1900 the US market has marked an important long-term bottom in the first 4 years of EACH decade, without exception (see table of Lance Roberts at left) ... The last major low in the S&P 500 we saw in March 2009, which obviously belongs to the last decade. So either we see in the current decade the first failure of this pattern in more than 100 years or we will see another bear market and subsequent bottom in the next 2 years, which would then fit to both, the presidential and the decennial cycle. In this context it is very interesting that if we combine both cycles and look into the past, we are getting again a consistent picture of having a high probability for seeing a new bear market in the next 24 months. Since 1941 we had 7 presidential election cycles where the post-election and mid-term year fell into the first 4 years of a decade. In 5 out of 7 cycles (72% probability) we saw significant bear markets and more importantly, they were among the most painful bear markets of the last century! 
Conclusion: Our preferred scenario for 2013 is that we see an important March top in equities, followed by a distributive summer top building phase before seeing significant weakness from a potential August top developing into Q4. ... From a potential top of around 1550 to 1570 we could see the market correcting to 1180/1100. From a secular perspective this potential new bear market could bring us a very important long-term low for equities in 2014.