Showing posts with label Lunar Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lunar Cycle. Show all posts

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Sunspots, Lunar Cycles and Weather Cycles | Louis M. Thompson

The occurrence of an 18- to 20-year cycle in weather in the U.S. Midwest is no longer controversial. The controversial issue is the cause. This article will present both sides of the issue, and will indicate why we will know more about the cause after the 1990s.


[...] The sunspot cycle has been associated with the “20-year drought cycle” in the western U.S. since about 1909, when A.E. Douglass started publishing his tree-ring studies. This scientist became so well known that he was able to establish the Laboratory for Tree Ring Research in Tuscon, Arizona, in 1938. 
 

[...] The sunspot cycle has averaged about 11 years since 1800. As the sun rotates on its axis, it makes a complete turn in about 27 days. Large and persistent spots appear to move from left to right for about two weeks, disappear, and return after about two weeks. The leading edges of spots or clusters of spots have a negative charge in one 11-year cycle and a positive charge in the next cycle. Hence, the term “double sunspot cycle.”


The conventional wisdom is that the drought cycle of about 20 years occurs near the end of the negative cycle and at the time of low solar activity. The drought periods of the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s occurred at the end of the negative cycle. The drought periods did not consistently follow that pattern from 1800 to 1900, although the severe droughts of the 1820s and 1840s occurred at the end of the negative cycle.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - Sunspots and Lunar Cycles: Their Possible Relation to Weather Cycles.
In: Cycles, September/October 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.

Thursday, March 14, 2024

The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle | Al Larson

Any grade-school pupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21, while summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual dates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple.
 
The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.

 Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called magnetosphere.
 
Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.

There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.
 
The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.


So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.
 
More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.

To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low. Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.

Quoted from:
Al Larson (1991) - The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle.
 

Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy | Theodor Landscheidt

Let us try to find cycles in nature that can be understood and predicted - and, in addition, that are connected with human behavior, especially the economy. Planetary tide-generating forces, acting on the Sun, are a promising candidate. Hence, we shall try to find dependable cycles in the tide-generating forces of the planets that are linked to energetic solar eruptions and terrestrial effects, especially in the economy. Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, the so-called tidal planets, can be expected to exert a realizable trigger effect.
 
 
» The golden section seems to be implanted in man, too. Dürer, the famous painter, made a thorough investigation of proportions in the human body and found as many as 25 realizations of the "divine proportion," as the golden section is also called, Is this why there is also psychic response to this proportion? According to H. Read, the golden section has, for centuries, been regarded as a key to the mysteries of art. Aesthetically speaking, it is considered to have the most pleasing proportions. « 
 
 
 
 
 » There is a growing body of circumstantial evidence that strong solar eruptions are linked to the tidal cycle. That energetic solar flares have a strong impact on important terrestrial cycles. Hence, the tidal cycle, with an average duration of  118.5 days - equaling 16.9 weeks, or 3.9 months - should have left marks in the records. «
 
 
» My example is a cycle in stock prices which averages 14-3/4 days long, but which proceeds m a hop-skip fashion in waves that are first shorter than the average and then longer than the average, alternately. On the average, the shorter waves run about 13-1/4 days long, the longer waves about 16-1/4 days long... it should be obvious that ... forecasts made on a 13-1/4-, 16-1/4, 13-1/4, 16-1/4-day basis would be vastly superior to those made on a rigid 14-3/4-day basis, even though both time intervals would come out to the same place in the end. You will doubtless have noticed that one long and one short wave together equal 29-1/2 days — the time interval from one new moon to the next. « 
 
 
Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1990) - Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy.
In: Proceedings, February 1990, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.
 

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | January - February 2024


Heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets coincide with Change in Trend (CIT) in financial markets. 
Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days = Composite Line of all angles outside the Cosmic Noise Channel.
Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days (CCDs) have no consistent polarity/directional bias.
Swing highs and lows  of the Composite Line  inside of the channel may also coincide with market reversals.
= White Circles = Full Moons | = Black Circles = New Moons.
 The calculation methodology of the Composite Line  is akin to the one of the Berg-Timer.
 
Recent and upcoming Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days are: 

Dec 06 (Wed)
Jan 08 (Mon)
Jan 27 (Sat)
Jan 31 (Wed)
Feb 04 (Sun)
Feb 17 (Sat)
Feb 22 (Thu)
Feb 25 (Sun)
Feb 29 (Thu)
Mar 02 (Sat) - Mar 03 (Sun) - Mar 04 (Mon)
 
Solunar Rhythm in January 2024. 
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms. 
 
(Source: Rob Handler, 2024)
 
 More often than not, stocks will 
 rise from (+/-) the 7th to (+/-) the 14th calendar day of a month.,
fall from (+/-) the 14th to (+/-) the 20th,
and rise from (+/-) the 20th to (+/-) the 25th.
 
 The 4th, 6th, 10th, 14th and 18th are usually positive.
The 7th and 20th are usually negative.
Not enough data for the 30th.

 
(Source: Rob Handler, 2024)

(Allen Reminick, Jan 12, 2024)

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen

 
Date Sun's Longitude Position Effect on US Stock Indexes
     
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative = low
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive = high
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2024 01 02 (Tue) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2024 01 06 (Sat) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2024 01 19 (Fri) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2024 01 30 (Tue) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2024 02 03 (Sat) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive
2024 02 06 (Tue) = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees negative
2024 02 18 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees negative
2024 02 23 (Fri) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees negative
2024 02 24 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees negative
2024 03 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees positive
2024 03 11 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees positive
2024 03 24 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees positive
2024 03 31 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees positive
2024 04 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees negative
2024 04 13 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees negative
2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees negative
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees neutral
2024 05 08 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees negative
2024 05 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees neutral
2024 05 25 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees negative
2024 06 06 (Thu) = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees neutral
2024 06 07 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees negative
2024 06 08 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees neutral
2024 06 29 (Sat) = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees positive
2024 07 04 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees negative
2024 07 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees positive
2024 07 10 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees negative
2024 07 24 (Wed) = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees negative
2024 07 29 (Mon) = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees positive
2024 08 09 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees negative
2024 08 10 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees positive
2024 09 02 (Mon) = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees negative
2024 09 04 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees positive
2024 09 05 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees negative
2024 09 20 (Fri) = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees positive
2024 09 24 (Tue) = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees negative
2024 10 07 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees negative
2024 10 14 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees positive
2024 10 22 (Tue) = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees positive
2024 10 25 (Fri) = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees negative
2024 10 27 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees negative
2024 11 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees positive
2024 11 21 (Thu) = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees positive
2024 11 25 (Mon) = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees positive
2024 12 08 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative
2024 12 12 (Thu) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2024 12 15 (Sun) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive
2024 12 27 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2025 01 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2025 01 06 (Mon) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2025 01 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2025 01 30 (Thu) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2025 02 03 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive
 
 
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 
So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 Solar Ephemeris.

Friday, December 8, 2023

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023

 
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 
So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP
2024 01 02 (Tue) = Sun @ 11° CAP 

 Solar Ephemeris.

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For November 2023 | Jeff Hirsch


Being a bullish month, November has seven bullish days based upon S&P 500, with four occurring in the first five trading days of the month. This bullish stretch is visible in November’s seasonal chart with solid gains spanning the first six trading days. Following a strong open, the market has tended to drift sideways with some chop through mid-month and into the Thanksgiving holiday before rallying strongly to finish the month. Although historically a bullish month, November does have weak points. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. In pre-election years, performance in November has been softer, but full-month performance remains positive on average.
 

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching (Fri, Sep 15th). It’s a few days before FOMC (Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20) with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
 

Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.


The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.