Showing posts with label Decennial Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decennial Cycle. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch

 2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again. 
In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;  
(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.
Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.
 
The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years, January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
 
In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance. The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle, the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and  the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.
 

The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.
 
 
The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.
 
 
 
 
 
In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:
Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high

The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):
Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High

The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024: 

 
Additional References:
Seth Golden (Dec 26, 2023) @ X
 
 Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,
before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%
2005 = 3%
 
 

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table


2024
» Major Panic - CRASH! «
» 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment. «

Quoted from:
TPR (2012) - W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted.

2024 in the Four Year Election Cycle │ Dimitri Speck

 
Dow Jones, 4-year cycle, calculated over 121 years.

2024 is an election year. The election cycle suggests a weak first half of the year,  and a good second half. The election year gets off to a weak start. The left quarter of the chart shows the typical performance of the Dow Jones in election years. As indicated by the red arrow, these typically posted losses in the first half of the year. After that, things look much better, as indicated by the green arrow.

Quoted from:
Seasonax (Dec 13, 2013) - 4-Year Election Cycle: How will 2024 go?

Monday, December 18, 2023

2024 US Stock Market Outlook │ Larry Williams

 
Larry Williams' 2024 projection for US Stocks:
 
First week of January to last week of February - UP
 Last week of February to last week of April - DOWN
 Last week of April to last week of Juli - SIDEWAYS-TO-UP
First day to last day of August - UP
First week to third week of September - DOWN  
  Third week to fourth week of September new high of the year - UP
Fourth week of September to first week of November - SIDEWAYS-TO-DOWN  
 First week of November to first week of December - UP
 First week to third week of December - DOWN
 Third week to last trading day of December printing the yearly high - UP
 
The December 2023 Low is a key price level in Q1 of 2024. 
 
Larry Williams identified June 2024 in the current decennial pattern 
 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy and hold until December 2025.
 
 

Reference:

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

L.H. Weston - Gann’s Professor | Hans Hannula

I've been told that Gann was very private about his office. He absolutely forbid anyone from entering it. He wanted to protect his secrets. But one document he kept in his safe. That document was a manuscript by Professor Weston of Washington, D. C. It was written in 1921 (part 1) and 1923 (part 2), four to six years before Gann published his Tunnel Thru the Air, Or Looking Back From 1940, Tunnel Thru the Air contains, in coded form, Gann’s explanation of how to use planetary cycles to trade stocks and commodities. 
 

He told his own family that it was all they ever needed to learn his market secrets. Many Gann students have labored very long and hard (yes, me, too) to decode Gann's writing. Gann loved to write in the abstract style of the Biblical mystics, whom he admired. Much of what is written in the Bible is information about planetary cycles. It is hidden in census counts, symbolic imagery, and heavily coded to escape notice of the casual reader. While one can dig out this material, it takes time, an ephemeris, and a lot of work. Gann had it much easier. What you are about to read is the paper Gann kept in his safe. 
 
Take your time and read it carefully. It’s one of the best papers ever written on the market. 
After you read it, I'll point out some interesting things about it.
 
 
[...] First, this is clearly the foundation of Gann’s use of the 10 year cycle, and its multiples. Second, this is historically a fairly early use of Fourier sequences, and far more mathematical than just using financial astrology. This is no surprise, since it is well known that Gann was a very good mathematician. It is also a source of many of his ideas that market movements follow geometric rules.
 

[...] It is also quite interesting that Weston actually proposed two different versions of the ten year pattern. The first is his computation, using 50 years of data, of a series composed of 20 , 28, 10, and 14 month components, to which he adds a Venus term. In this system he cites use of heliocentric positions. We'll call this first method "Weston’s Curve’.

A most interesting point made in this method is Weston’s discovery that the planetary cycles tend to slip to synchronize with the earth’s annual cycle. I discovered this in my own work, and was sure it was an original discovery. So much for that vanity!

The second method I call “Weston’s Snowflake.” In it he proposes a sequence of turning points in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle that divides it into 10 irregular parts. Interestingly, Weston claims that this is a geocentric system. We'll show in a moment that it was not. But this “false lead” may have been intended for those whom Weston feared would learn his secret. Gann obviously made good use of Weston’s methods.  


[... Weston used] the 0, 18, 54, 90, 126, and 180 degree points of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle as turns. One can quickly see the problem with using this geocentrically. Almost all of the points are triple points, as the earth moves around the sun, giving multiple views from which to measure the angle between Jupiter and Saturn. The problem becomes one of which points to use.

[...] It took only one look at using this rule heliocentrically to convince me that Weston used it that way. Obviously, W. D. Gann watched these outer configurations to be alert for the deviations they might cause in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. You are advised to do the same.


 

Sunday, December 30, 2018

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for 2019 | Review 2018

The concept of W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for stock indices HERE
Mass Pressure Charts vs US-stocks during previous years HERE
Mass Pressure Chart for US-stocks | 1st Quarter 2019
W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for 2018 vs S&P 500 Index | Review

Saturday, August 18, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart | Update August 2018

Since early February the S&P 500 Index has closely been following the Gann Mass Pressure Chart,
and suggests that August 7 (Tue) marked a major high and Aug 15 (Wed) an intermediate low. The rally
should now pause for about two days into August 21 (Tue) before continuing into August 25 (Sat). Next
would be a swing down into the last trading day of August. From there the Mass Pressure Chart moves
sideways-to-down to another major low end of October. From there the Mass Pressure Chart rises into
the last trading day of 2018. More on the concept of Gann's Mass Pressure Chart
 HERE

Saturday, December 30, 2017

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for the DJIA 2018


W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart is a selective or incomplete Decennial Pattern: Each value of this composite is derived from 6 past price values of the DJIA exactly 80, 60, 40, 30, 20, and 10 years back. Therefore the Mass Pressure Chart and the Decennial Pattern oftentimes look very much the same, and even have identical turning-points. See also HERE

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Sunday, January 8, 2017

DJIA 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%
1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%
7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%
"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more
or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the
same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern."

Thursday, September 1, 2016

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Cycles | September 2016

September is the only month to show more losing months than winning months
over the past 66 years. It also sports the largest average loss (-0.68%).
October actually has a decent track record (up 41 times - or 62% of the
time - down 25 times, with an average gain of +0.80%). However, this
record is tainted somewhat as many investors - not entirely incorrectly -
have come to refer to October as "Crash Month". To wit, 1929, 1930, 1932,
1933, 1937, 1941, 1978, 1979, 1987, 1997 and 2008 all witnessed sharp
declines in the stock market during the month of October.

Calculation: www.moneychimp.com