Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.
 
 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 
Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.
 
 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).
 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 
(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle In Stocks │ Edward R. Dewey

Another cycle that has done all in its power to keep cycle scientists humble is one averaging 40.68 months in length. It has been present in industrial common-stock prices since 1871 and was discovered in 1912 by a New York group of investors. These gentlemen had learned that the Rothschilds had analyzed British consols (government obligations) and had broken up the price fluctuations into a series of repeating curves that had been combined and used for forecasting. The New York group hired a mathematician to discover the secret formula of the Rothschilds, and working with the Dow-Jones Railroad Averages, he discovered a forty-one-month cycle, plus three others, which his employers used to help them invest in the market. Apparently they were very successful around World War I.
 
Figure 38: The 41-Month Rhythm in Stock Prices, 1868-1945.
 
Some ten years after the original discovery, Professor W. L. Crum, of Harvard, noted a cycle of "39, 40, or 41 months" in monthly commercial-paper rates in New York. Almost simultaneously, Professor Joseph Kitchin, also of Harvard, discovered a cycle that he called forty months in six economic time series, bank clearings, commodity prices, and interest rates in both Great Britain and the United States from 1890 to 1922. As far as I know, it was not until 1935, twenty-three years after the original discovery, that this cycle was again noticed in the stock market. Our old friend Chapin Hoskins, who knew nothing of the earlier work, discovered this cycle in many series of price and production figures, including common-stock prices. Early in 1938 he made an extensive study of this cycle for one of the large investment-trust services.

Figure 38 shows the forty-one-month cycle (now refined to 40.68 months) from 1868 through 1945. As you can see, while its waves are not identical to an ideal 40.68 wave, which is represented by the broken zigzag, there is an amazing correspondence between them. This cycle persisted through wars and peace, good times and depressions.

Then, in 1946, something strange happened to our cycle. Almost as if some giant hand had reached down and pushed it, the cycle stumbled, and by the time it had regained its equilibrium it was marching completely out of step from the ideal cadence it had maintained for so many years. As you can see in Figure 39, it has regained the approximate beat of forty-one months or so, as before, but its behavior now appears upside down on our graph.
 
Figure 39: The 41-Month Rhythm, Upside Down, 1946-1957.
 
Scores of explanations and reams of paper have been expended to explain this behavior. We are familiar with most of the possibilities, such as distortion by random behavior, two or more other cycles of near lengths, and even a general public knowledge of this particular cycle, which may have had a distorting effect on its timing. But, in truth, no one can positively explain what happened in 1946 any more than they can explain the regularity of the rhythm for all the years that preceded it.

 
42-Month Cycle in the DJIA (weekly bars), March 2020 - October 2023.

Saturday, December 9, 2023

The Grinch Barometer | Wayne Whaley

Define the Grinch Barometer as the S&Ps performa over the 3 trading days before and after Xmas (6 days). Stay tuned for Grinch spottings.
 
 
 
Since 1950, a negative Grinch has been followed by a positive January in 16 of those 19 years (average month = +4.3%) and a positive calendar year in 18 of those 19 cases (average year = +19.4%). To the contraire, eleven of the 12 S&P double digit loss years since 1950 followed positive Grinch’s.
 
 
On Dec 08 (Fri) the
VIX printed a new yearly low at 12.35.

S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index - the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator  - 
kept steadily rising for six week and closed at 858 last Friday. No reversal.
 
The High Low Logic Index (last Friday = 1.467) indicates no reversal and that the NASDAQ is nowhere near a major top yet. Every major high since 2000 happened only after the logic index had reached 1.92 or higher prior to the top: 2000 = 1.92; 2007 = 2.01; 2015 = 2.18; 2018 = 2.05; 2019 (2020 crash) = 2.17; 2021 = 2.09. 
 
Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)
However, the DJIA now closed the sixth week / the 27th trading day above the 9-day moving average a.k.a. the market maker re-balance level within all different weekly range templates. Not sure when this happened last time. All the shallow consolidations during the past four weeks occurred around the 3-day moving average only. Spectacular. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ consolidated last week around the 9 DMA into Thursday before taking out the previous weeks high once again - but by some points only. Nasdaq actually printed lower weekly lows and closed on a lower high. What goes up will come down again to 50%+ levels - sooner or later. Next Monday, December 11, the DJIA will open the seventh week / the 28th trading day above the 9 DMA. Impressive outside fourth quarter range on a new 2023 high. The S&P 500 touched the July 27 yearly high to the pip but did not break to the upside. Lagging behind the other two major indexes by at least a single pip. Quite fantastic. Monday, December 10, will be 45 solar longitude degrees away from the November 27 major low. Tuesday, December 12 looks like a New Moon and 'Sensitive Solar Degree' December high. Saturday-Sunday, December 16-17 is a turn day in the geocentric Bradley Siderograph and should mark a low in US stocks. 

Sunday, November 26, 2023

US Stock Indexes | Shallow Retracement Into Early-Mid-December Now Likely

Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly bars)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)
Monthly weekly and daily trends are up. 

S&P 500 (weekly bars)

S&P 500 (daily bars)
Eleven days, three levels and nearly 6 * ATR above the re-accumulation low of November 9.

Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars) 

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars) 

CBOE Volatility Index (monthly bars). Very close to multi-year lows.

SPX Put/Call Ratio = 1.63 for Nov 24 2023.
 
 Seth Golden (Nov 25, 2023):
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)
 
 
 
Four weeks+ of price expansion beyond daily, weekly and quarterly levels. Last week narrow daily and weekly ranges. Multi-month inflation melt-up? Possible. Allen Reminick suggests a creep up into November 27 (Mon) or December 1 (Fri) followed by some rather shallow 23-50% move down into December 8 or mid-month, some X-mas rally, sideways into January 12 and up into March-April 2024. Possible. [ Allen Reminick (Nov 20, 2023) - S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 ]
 
See also:

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA | Carol S. Mull

Carol S. Mull (1989) - Humankind moves through periods of optimism, expansion, anxiety, depression and panic, as dictated by the magnetic winds that govern the universe. These cycles affect market trading and can be forecast by observing and analyzing planetary phenomena. There are at least twenty different planetary, solar, or lunar movements that affect the market in a significant way. I know of no computer program that utilizes more than five or six of them. Below is a summary of the most useful, listed from those with the shortest effect through those lasting decades.
 
Cafe Astrology .com - This Month’s Ephemeris

A FEW HOURS OR MINUTES
Planet to Midheaven: You may have noticed that the DIJA will move up or down at about the same time each day for a week or more. This is because the planet and its aspects that is directly overhead the market location at any given time-of-day will affect the mood of the trader. Hence, if Saturn is crossing the Midheaven of the New York Stock Exchange location of Manhattan Island in New York at about 1:00 p.m., the market may have opened up, but will tend to drop from noon until 1:00 p.m., and may then turn up again. This trend will continue for about a week, with the timing being a little later each day until it finally moves beyond the time of the market closing. Jupiter in the same position will bring a rise in market prices. Neptune over the market Midheaven will bring increased trading in oil stocks. Uranus over the Midheaven will produce an erratic market. 
 
Planetary Hours Calculator

I know a daytrader who runs an astrological chart on his computer every fifteen minutes for New York City and then acts accordingly. This planet-to-Midheaven indicator is good for the hourly wobbles in the market and should always be considered against the general trend. 
 
Solar, Lunar and Planets Ephemerides - Rise - Midheaven Transit - Set

Sun and Moon Aspects
: The astrological aspects that are easiest to learn and use are those between the Sun and the Moon. These can be found in an Almanac, ephemeris or astrological calendar. The Sun and Moon are conjunct at the New Moon and, unless overshadowed by heavier aspects, the market can be expected to move upward at that time.
 
Monthly Lunation Cycle 8 Lunar Sun-Moon 45° Phases

The Sun and Moon are in square aspect (90°) at the first quarter and the last quarter and a bear market is the normal result. The Sun and Moon are in opposition (180°) at the Full Moon, which usually brings a somewhat bullish market, but is not as positive as the New Moon. Sun/Moon trines (120°) come halfway between the opposition and the first quarter or last quarter. They are indicators of bull markets.

Eclipses are really just super New or Full Moons and unless aspected, produce little market change at the time. However, they sensitize a certain degree in the sky and whenever another planet comes into aspect with that point, LOOK OUT. The Noon or Mercury to that point will produce an erratic unpredictable market. When Mars comes into aspect with that point, the market is likely to fall sharply.

TimeAndDate.com - Eclipses and Transits Visible in New York

The Total Picture - Positive or Negative: A tool used by several financial astrologers is to tally all the aspects in the sky on a given day. This method is described by both LCdr. David Williams in his book, Financial Astrology, and by Donald Bradley in his book, Stock Market Prediction, but most users put their own construction on the methods described by Williams and Bradley.

The usual method is to list the aspects that are within a degree of orb on a given day over New York City within market hours, plus the more important ones that fall after or before the market is open. A numerical value is then assigned to each aspect. Conjunctions are ten; sextiles are 3; trines 10; squares 8, and oppositions six. In general, conjunctions, sextiles and trines are positive, whiles squares and oppositions are negative but this can be overridden by the nature of the planets involved. Saturn and Mars are always negative. Jupiter, Venus and Sun are always positive.
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices

When the list is complete, add your negative column and then your positive column. If you have -86 and +13, you should definitely expect a down-day at the market. Plus 72 and minus 14 would indicate a bull market. This same method of tallying aspects can be used on a hourly basis or even fifteen minutes.

A FEW DAYS
Moon’s Daily Motion: The average daily motion of the Moon is 13.17749 degrees, but it fluctuates from 11.54’ to 14.36’, gaining in daily speed for nine to thirteen days and then losing speed for nine to thirteen days, depending on the season of the year. Whenever the Moon is gaining in daily speed the market tends to move upward; whenever the Moon is losing daily velocity, the market tends to move downward. This can account for small wobbles on a general trend line. (I find it of interest that this average thirteen day motion correlates with the Mayan calendar of thirteen day cycles, which they grouped into 260 day cycles (13x20). I am working on an overall plan to tie the market to the Mayan calendar, but it is not complete.)
 
Sun-Moon Daily Arc Move on Sphere = Longitude Speed

Sunspots
: Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading. The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point, either up or down. Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a heliocentric line-up with the Earth at 0°, 45°, and 90°, but lesser activity produces the well-known Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks [see also HERE].
 
Jan Alvestad - Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

A very good illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun, increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square the Sun. So, be aware that heliocentric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down.

Powerful Aspects: Certain aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter.

National Astronomical Observatory of Japan - Celestial Phenomena

A FEW WEEKS
The Planet Mercury: Mercury does rule trading and it alone can give you a reasonably good forecast. Whenever you see a Sun-Mercury conjunction, you may expect a high volume day that is very bullish. These happen about every six weeks. Mercury's daily motion is a very important market indicator. That is, whatever the daily motion of Mercury is increasing, the market is likely to move upward and whenever Mercury's velocity is decreasing, the market trend is downward. This has nothing to do with retrograde or forward motion.
 
Retrograde Planets Calendar

It is the increase or decrease of velocity that counts and the direction does not matter. When Mercury is stationery or nearly so, the market has a very low volume and is bearish. If Mercury is rapidly gaining in velocity, the market gains rapidly. If Mercury is gaining velocity slowly, the market is up a little. The tone of the market can be discerned by the actions of Mercury .

Seasonal Highs and Lows: The market is usually up January 9th through the 18th. This is because the Sun reaches 23°-25° Capricorn in mid-January, which produces a grand trine with Mercury at 24° Taurus in the NY Stock Exchange chart, Sun at 26° Taurus in the NYSE chart, Neptune at 20° Virgo in the chart of the USA, and Pluto at 24° Capricorn in the chart of the USA. A similar effect happens each September, when transit Sun reaches 18°-27° Virgo.
 
In fact, the degree 24°-26° Taurus is important to stock exchanges around the world. The New York Stock Exchange has Sun and Mercury in that area, Tokyo Exchange has Sun, Amsterdam Exchange has Sun and Pluto, Budapest Exchange has Venus, Lisbon Exchange has Jupiter, London Exchange has Sun, Melbourne Exchange has Venus and Uranus, Toronto Exchange has Jupiter opposite, Zurich Exchange has Venus and Pluto. It is easy to see why the markets so often act in unison.

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun

LONG TERM TRENDS
Venus Daily Motion: For longer term trends, I depend upon the increasing and decreasing of the velocity of Venus in the same way as the velocity of Moon and Mercury were used. This indicator points toward a lower 1999 than 1998. 
 
Venus' Daily Motion

The Outer Planets
: Very long term trends changes are marked by the aspects of Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. A very good book about this is THE EGG OF COLUMBUS by George Bayer, which pretends to be describing a banquet or feast. If you set charts for the dates given in the book, you will find exact aspects of the outer planets. Enough said? These long-term trends have been charted as cycles of varying lengths, but for exact work, you will need to work from the helio-centric aspects of the outer planets.

HeavensAbove.com - Planet Summary

Mars Aspects: The planet Mars acts as a "trigger" for certain undesirable long-term stock market movements, whenever this planet is square or opposite one of the outer planets. That is, the outer planetary aspects set the long-term trends, but Mars produces the action. The following aspects are especially bad for the market: Mars conjunct Saturn, Mars square Neptune, Mars opposite Jupiter, Mars in opposition, regardless of the planet. In contrast, stock prices have consistently risen during the thirty days just before a conjunction of Mars with Jupiter or Mercury.

Geocentric and Heliocentric Aspect Search Engine (500BC - 2500AD)

CONCLUSION
These are some of the more important astro indicators of DJIA trends. Applying them is not a quick study. Instead, it requires several years of blending the various factors, until a certain "wisdom" develops. Above all, you should always be aware of both political and economic happenings around the world for these will provide the background for your research.

 
See also:

Sunday, December 30, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs Average Annual Cycle | Turning Points 2019

The above chart shows the Average Annual Cycle based on S&P 500 Index close values from 1950 to 2018.
Upcoming important turning points in this cycle during 2019 are:
Jan 07 (Mon) High
Jan 14 (Mon) Low
Jan 25 (Fri) High
Feb 09 (Sat) Low
Mar 12 (Tue) High
Mar 29 (Thu) Low
Jun 08 (Sat) High
Jul 01 (Mon) Low
Aug 29 (Thu) High
Oct 28 (Mon) Low
Nov 08 (Fri) High
Dec 23 (Mon) Low