Showing posts with label 72 Year Cycle of Political Change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 72 Year Cycle of Political Change. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

China's Supergrowth Likely To Run Five More Years

Credits: World Bank ׀ Enlarge
Brad DeLong (Dec 01, 2015) - China has hitherto kept growing and growing rapidly, even without anything a North Atlantic economic historian would see as the rule of law. It has had its own system of what we might call industrial neofeudalism. Instead of the king's judges enforcing property and contract rights, Chinese entrepreneurs have protection via their fealty to connection groups within the party that others do not wish to cross. Historically, the Hamiltonian strategy of moving farmers to factories and setting them to work using imported manufacturing technology is the only reliably successful development strategy because manufacturing technology is the only one that can be reliably imported. You buy the machines to make the products, you buy the blueprints for the products to be made and, with a few engineering coaches hired from abroad - and you are in business. 
Start of Second Sino-Japanese War 1937 + 51.6 Years =
Tiananmen Square US Color Revolution Attempt June 4, 1989
People's Republic of China established Oct 1, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021
Mao Zedong meets Richard Nixon Feb 21, 1972 + 51.6 Years = 2023
Deng Xiaoping starts economic reforms 1978 + 51.6 Years = 2029
But that requires that people outside your country buy your low-priced manufactures. And the world has reached a point at which demand for manufactured goods is no longer highly elastic [...] After the 2015 stock market crash, China is likely to have another five, maybe ten, years of very healthy growth. The party can redistribute income from the rich to the middle and the poor and from the coasts to the interior. Mammoth demand from an enriched urban middle class and peasantry can provide business for all of China's factories that otherwise would be selling into an export market with lower-than-expected demand elasticity. The interior can be brought up to the manufacturing productivity standards of the coast (see also HERE)

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Martin Armstrong's Political Economy | 72 Year Cycle of Political Change

"Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been
uncanny in predicting political change." (recent interview HERE)
Martin Armstrong (Jan 8, 2013) - Where does the Political-Economy Model stand right now for the West? The answer to that question is the epic turn appears to be 2016. Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been uncanny in predicting political change incorporating the same frequency for volatility. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was right on target with the fall of the Berlin Wall 72 years later in 1989. This strongly warns that this wave in the Economic Confidence Model due to peak 2015.75, will be extremely important. This is the time frame we have been looking at for the past 30 years for the next Sovereign Debt Crisis. Certain trends simply cannot be sustained beyond 72 years without change. 

"High Treason" - Federal Republic of Germany established May 23, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021
This time that change is coming by dragging the politicians by the hair cave-man style. How intelligent people just cannot see the problem with borrowing perpetually and never having any intention of paying off the debt, it’s simply unimaginable. The previous cycle turning in 1872 and that led to what is known as the “long depression” of the 19th century everyone concedes lasted for 26 years. This is why the real estate model is 78 years. It too is closely aligned with political turmoil that always brings structural change [...] Consequently, we are looking at 2014 for the beginning of a rise in separatism and civil unrest around the West. Then we see 2016 and the start of a nasty economic decline. We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 phase. That may actually be the bottom in the European economic meltdown (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Oct 17, 2015) - Each country has its own unique cycle. There was a very major turning point in France that nearly became a revolution [in May 1968]. Even Charles de Gaulle secretly left France for a few hours after fearing for his life and a revolution [...] The French socialist state is now collapsing under Hollande. Civil unrest will erupt moving into 2017 and then there is the risk of another major cultural revolution as the youth do not share the same values as the socialistic elites who are in control. We will see that risk erupt by 2020 or 51.6 years from the May 1968 cultural revolution (see also HERE)