Sunday, January 28, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs Eurodollar COT's Leading Indication | Forecast for 2018


Here is another Tom McClellan approach to forecast the stock market one year ahead: In the above chart the blue line represents the Commercials' Position Net Long Position in the Eurodollar (COT Report available HERE) as % of Total Open Interest, set forward 54 Weeks. The projection seems to correlate best +/- 2 weeks. About the hows and whys of this indicator, Tom McClellan, the inventor, wrote back in August 2015: "The basic idea is that I take data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report on the commercial traders’ net position in eurodollar futures, and then use that as a leading indication for the SP500.  In this case, the term Eurodollar (ED) refers not to a currency relationship, but rather to dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks. So it is an interest rate futures product [...] I do not know why it works to have the ED COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do. But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here." (HERE) However, he later commented this was one of his "favorite indicators. But favorite does not mean perfect" (HERE).