Saturday, October 14, 2017

DJIA Forecast 2017 vs Actual & Outlook into 2027 | Thomas Bulkowski

On January 1, 2017 Thomas Bulkowski presented a forecast for the DJIA in 2017 (middle chart). Comparing this forecast with the actual DJIA (top chart), he now remarks on October 14: "Notice that peak A comes well before B, and it's higher than B, too. Bad timing. The index dipped and has recovered up to C, nearly matching the prediction. Here's where the ride gets scary. Notice how the market drops, and fast, too, after C. That's about a 1,500 point drop in a month. Ouch. This forecast isn't guessing. It's based on what has happened in prior years. Click the above link for more details. However, just because it's a mechanical forecast doesn't make it right. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next four weeks."

Also on January 1, 2017 he published a forecast for the DJIA covering a decade of price movement into 2027 (lower chart): "The vertical magenta lines show important turns. Price is fine during most of 2017 until the Dow peaks in October. Then the big decline starts in what looks to be a bear market lasting to 2019. Then we get a nice run up which continues until at least 2027."