Tuesday, May 31, 2016

The Limits of Oil’s Rebound

Anatole Kaletsky (May 30, 2016) - [...] "From now on, the costs faced by these marginal producers will set the top and bottom of oil’s trading range. Low-cost producers in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Russia will continue to pump as much as their physical infrastructure can transport as long as the price is higher than $25 or so. The price needed to elicit enough production from US shale and Canadian tar sands to meet strong demand may be $50, $55, or even $60, but it is unlikely to be much higher than that.

Unpredictable shifts in supply and demand will, of course, cause fluctuations within this trading range, which past experience suggests could be quite large. In the 20-year period of competitive pricing from 1985 to 2004, the oil price frequently doubled or halved in the course of a few months. So the near-doubling of oil prices since mid-January’s $28 low is not surprising. But now that the $50 ceiling is being tested, we can expect the next major move in the trading range to be downward." 

Crude oil increased 0.62 USD/BBL or 1.26% to 49.98 on Tuesday May 31 from 49.36 in the previous trading session.
Crude oil lost 10.26 USD/BBL or 17.03 % during the last 12 months from 60.24 USD/BBL in May of 2015.
Historically, Crude oil reached an all time high of 145.31 in July of 2008 and a record low of 1.17 in February of 1946.
Bull Markets in Oil tend to be short, whereas Bear Markets last 11 to 28 Years. So far we are in the 8th year