Thursday, January 29, 2015
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
|Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. |
For the methodology see HERE and HERE
Sunday, January 25, 2015
|Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.|
Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE
|Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.|
|W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE|
|Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE|
Thursday, January 8, 2015
|Cooperation, Stagnation or Rivalry?|
|Putin to Merkel: "No matter what you do, you will be fucked anyway!"|
|Source: Chart of the Day|
Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below).
However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.
|Source: Raj Times and Cycles|
Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).