Tuesday, January 21, 2014

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900

The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Friedrich List - The Real Sources of Wealth and the American System of Political Economy

"The power to create wealth is infinitely more important than wealth itself."
Friedrich List (1789-1846) was born in Reutlingen, Württemberg, in what was not yet a united Germany. As a young economics professor in the aftermath of the Congress of Vienna (1815), he worked for unity and protective tariffs among the tiny, feudalist-ruled German principalities. His German Trade and Tradesmen’s Union [Allgemeiner Deutscher Handels- und Gewerbeverein] aimed for a free republican constitution and national promotion of home industries. List demanded protection from the cheap imports from Britain’s global slave empire that were flooding the markets, fearing that the German people would end up as “drawers of water and hewers of wood for Britain.” Austria’s Prince Metternich saw List as an intolerably dangerous “agitator”, and arranged to have him arrested and jailed, forcing him eventually in 1824 to emigrate to America.

Contrary to Metternich’s intention, that led to the most fertile collaboration with Americans such as Henry Carey and Henry Clay. In a speech before the Pennsylvania Society for the Promotion of Manufacture and the Mechanic Arts in 1827, List threw down the gauntlet: “I herewith declare war against the system of Adam Smith on behalf of the American Systemof Political Economy.” His book “Outlines on American Political Economy” was written that year. While in the United States, he opened coal mines, helped plan a canal system, designed rail transport, and proposed the cutting of a Panama Canal. He returned to Germany in 1830, becoming the American Consul to Leipzig. There he launched his program for a national railway network, becoming known as the “Father of the German Railways”. His program for the expansion of the Zollverein [Customs Union] was implemented in 1834. He gave us one of today’s best works on economics, published in 1841 as “The National System of Political Economy”, which tore apart the British free-trade ideology:

The causes of wealth are something totally different than wealth itself. An individual can possess wealth, i.e., exchange value, but if he does not have the power to create more valuable items than he consumes, he will become impoverished. An individual may be poor, but if he has the power to create a larger amount of valuable items than he consumes, he becomes rich. The power to create wealth is therefore infinitely more important than wealth itself; it guarantees not only the possession and increase of what has been acquired, but also the replacement of what has been lost. This is even more the case with whole nations, that cannot live on pensions, than with private persons. Germany has been ravaged in every century by plague, by famine, or by internal and external wars, but it has always managed to save much of its productive forces, and so it returned quickly to prosperity, while the rich and powerful, but despot- and priest-ridden Spain, in full possession of domestic peace, sank ever deeper into poverty and misery. The same Sun shines upon the Spaniards, they have the same earth and land, their mines are just as rich, they are the same people as before the discovery of America and before the introduction of the Inquisition; but this people has gradually lost its productive power, so it has become poor and miserable. The North American liberation war has cost that nation hundreds of millions, but through the acquisition of national independence their productive power was strengthened immeasurably, so they could create much greater riches within a few years after the peace than they had ever possessed.

[...] The motto, ‘laissez faire, laissez passer’ is [...] one that sounds no less pleasant to robbers, cheaters, and thieves than to the merchant, and therefore one ought to regard this maxim with suspicion [...] This perversity, to surrender the interests of manufacturing and agriculture to the unfettered demands of trade, is a natural consequence of that theory, which universally looks only at prices, never allowing for the work required to produce, and views the entire world as one single and indivisible republic of merchants. This school of thought [Adam Smith’s] does not see that the merchant can achieve his purpose — obtaining profits by trade, even at the expense of agriculture and manufacturing, at the expense of the productive forces—just as easily through the independence and autonomy of nations. It’s all the same to him, and it is in the nature of his business and his aspirations that he cannot give a fig about the effect that the way in which he imports or exports goods might have upon the morality, the prosperity, and the power of the nation. He imports poisons just as he imports medicines. He enervates entire nations with opium and distilled spirits. Whether he provides hundreds of thousands of jobs and livelihood through his imports and chicanery, or whether an equal number are thus brought to beggary, it means nothing to a businessman, so long as it improves his balance sheet.

No sane person should have any difficulty following List’s arguments: Surrendering all to the “invisible hand” of the market is an anarchist concept of freedom, which quite intentionally does not differentiate between thievery and productive investment. Hence the British ideology of free trade was refuted already by Gottfried Leibniz and Jean-Baptiste Colbert in the 17th Century, Alexander Hamilton in the 18th Century, and again by Henry Carey, Sergei Yulevich Witte and many others in the 19th Century.

However, in more recent times British Prime Minister MargaretThatcher (1979-1990) had been a fervent follower of the Austrian School’s economic anarchism. She had read with enthusiasm Friedrich von Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom, and subsequently argued that any social spending is tantamount to socialism. With one idiotic simplification went another: that free trade was synonymous with freedom. The October 1986 “Big Bang” was the name for Thatcher’s purported blow for freedom, the sudden and radical deregulation of financial markets. With the abolition of capital controls, and the exorbitant payment of bonuses to executives, the fattest financial fat cats from all over the world could romp freely in London. London became the largest financial center in the world, with spectacular growth rates of the new sector. In the U.S. the deregulation of infrastructure and the systematic reduction of investment in the real economy were promoted by certain Rockefeller-protégés of the Mont Pelerin Society, and finally set into place under President Jimmy Carter (1977–1981). The process was accelerated significantly under Ronald Reagan (1981–1989), and thirty years later, there is not much left of industrial and productive jobs in the U.S. In the example of Detroit, the collapse of urban culture in a former major industrialized nation is studied by Asian anthropologists.

Free trade and deregulation were devastating failures whenever and wherever they were practiced. They were leading directly into the current global breakdown crisis, which is orchestrated by a fascist dictatorship of white collar terrorists from the City of London, Wall Street, Frankfurt, Riad and Doha. These fanatics are employing war-machines called FED, ECB, IMF, WTO, UN, and NATO to generate astronomical profits for the few, and misery and failed states for the many. However, at the same time the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Union, and the BRIIC keep proving that real economic growth and human progress are possible also in today’s world. Students of Leibniz, Colbert and Hamilton, List, Carey and Witte are demonstrating how to use power wisely in order to create wealth from industrial production, how to regulate the financial sector, how to facilitate high-quality public education, research, healthcare and investment, and how to establish and protect social and economic rights of working people and their families.

1914 – 2014: Time to Revise the War Guilt Clause of the Versailles Treaty

The entire international public order of the post-1919 era, including the League of Nations and, by extension, the United Nations, has been based on the absurd lie that Germany was solely responsible for the outbreak of World War I. This finding was officially reported to the Paris Peace Conference at the close of the war by a “Commission on the Responsibility of the Authors of the War”, which was chaired by American Secretary of State Robert Lansing. Lansing refused to allow any Germans to take part in his deliberations, and the commission ignored a new “German White Book” compiled in 1919 by Hans Delbrück, Professor Mendelssohn-Bartholdy, Count Montgelas, and Max Weber, which contained enough evidence to show that the thesis of exclusive German war guilt was untenable. The kernel of Lansing' s conclusions was as follows: “The War was premeditated by the Central Powers together with their allies, Turkey and Bulgaria, and was the result of acts deliberately committed in order to make it unavoidable. Germany, in agreement with Austria-Hungary, deliberately worked to defeat all the many conciliatory proposals made by the Entente Powers.

Webster G. Tarpley, 2014: The Triple Entente of Great Britain, France, and
Russia was formed by the British King Edward VII between 1904 and 1907 for
the following reasons: (1.) unleash a continental European war that would
crush Germany, (2.) severely weaken France and Russia, (3.) undermine the
advance and expansion of modern European industrial civilization, and hence
(4.) sustain the global supremacy of the British oligarchy's brutal and racist
colonial slave empire. Edward VII died in May 1910, before he could see his
life's work carried through to completion. But he had created a network of
cothinkers, agents, and dupes in every chancery in England, Europe, and
America who would, when the time came, push the mobilization buttons and
launch the war. The madmen of 1914 - William II, Sir Edward Grey, Izvolski,
Sazonov, Delcasse, Clemenceau, Poincaré - were all agents of Edward VII's
influence. It was Edward's crowd that made sure that the lights went out
across Europe, not to be re-illuminated for a generation and more. Edward VII,
far more than any other single human being, was the author of the First World
War. Without his' exertions, the most destructive single event in the history
of western civilization could never have occurred.
This false verdict was then incorporated into the infamous Article 231 of the Treaty of Versailles, which alleges: “The Allied and Associated Governments affirm, and Germany accepts, the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies.

The German delegates were coerced into signing the Versailles Treaty by threats of renewed war and by the economic blockade still imposed on Germany after the armistice by the fleets of the Entente. The thesis of exclusive German war guilt was required by the Entente as a premise for the Carthaginian peace imposed on the Central Powers, which included the demand for more than $32 billion in war reparations, especially to France, plus interest for servicing this debt over decades into the future. In the years after the war, documentary evidence was published which further undermined the Big Lie of Versailles. This included Karl Kautsky's Outbreak of the World War (New York, 1924) , the Soviet Materials for the History of Franco-Russian Relations from 1910 to 1914 (Moscow, 1922), the Austrian Red Book of 1919, and the diary of Baron Schilling of the Russian Foreign Ministry (London, 1925).

The false verdict of Versailles had already become a scandal in America during the 1920s, when historians like H.E. Barnes demanded the revision of the war guilt clause. Typical is this conclusion from the academic historian Sidney B. Fay of Harvard in 1930: “The verdict of the Versailles Treaty that Germany and her allies were responsible for the War, in view of the evidence now available, is historically unsound. It should therefore be revised. However, because of the popular feeling widespread in some of the Entente countries, it is doubtful whether a formal and legal revision is as yet practicable. There must first come a further revision by historical scholars, and through them of public opinion.

Now, after fascism, a second world conflict, the Cold War, and the fall of the communist regimes in Europe, the time has come to reopen the Versailles Treaty. The treaty must be revised to specify the war guilt of an international conspiracy masterminded first by king Edward VII of England, and after him by Sir Edward Grey, in which figures like Izvolski, Sazonov, and Clemenceau were participants. The center of war guilt must be fixed in London.
Webster G. Tarpley [EIR - March24, 1995; pp. 58-59]
To rescue European civilization today, an alliance of France, Germany and Russia is due to stop the War of Globalization that is waged since 1991 by lunatics from Washington and London together with their vassals in Paris, Brussels, and Berlin.

Larry Edelson: "From 2014 through 2017, the world is, sadly, at very high risk of a major,
international war. A war that could be as significant as the Korean War, and quite possibly,
World War II.
" The worst-case scenario is a world war between the West — NATO, U.S., EU with
Japan-Taiwan-South Korea — and the East—the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with Russia,
China, Central Asia as members and India, Pakistan, Iran as observers. With four nuclear powers
on each side, and West versus Islam as a major issue. In the centre is the explosive mix of a
divided territory (Israel-Palestine) and Jerusalem, a capital divided by a wall.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

SoLunar Tidal Forces 2014

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

2013-12-26 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-01 (Wed) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-01-04 (Sat) = Earth @ Perihelion
2014-01-07 (Tue) = 1st Quarter
2014-01-09 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-15 (Wed) = Full Moon + Moon @ Apogee
2014-01-16 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-24 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-01-30 (Thu) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-02-06 (Thu) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-12 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-02-14 (Fri) = Full Moon
2014-02-20 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-22 (Sat) = 3rd Quarter
2014-02-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-01 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-03-06 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-08 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-03-11 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-03-16 (Sun) = Full Moon
2014-03-20 (Thu) = Equinox + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-23 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-03-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-30 (Sun) = New Moon
2014-04-03 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-07 (Mon) = 1st Quarter
2014-04-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-04-15 (Tue) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-04-16 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-22 (Tue) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Perigee
2014-04-23 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-04-29 (Tue) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-04-30 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-06 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-05-13 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-14 (Wed) = Full Moon
2014-05-18 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-05-21 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-05-26 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-28 (Wed) = New Moon
2014-06-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-06-03 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-05 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-06-10 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-12 (Thu) = Full Moon
2014-06-14 (Sat) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-06-15 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-06-19 (Thu) = 3rd Quarter
2014-06-21 (Sat) = Solstice
2014-06-22 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-27 (Fri) = New Moon
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-03 (Thu) = Earth @ Aphelion
2014-07-05 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-07-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-12 (Sat) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee
2014-07-13 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-07-18 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-07-20 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-26 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-07-27 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-28 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-03 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2014-08-05 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-10 (Sun) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-08-17 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-24 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-25 (Mon) = New Moon
2014-09-02 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-07 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-09-09 (Tue) = SuperFullMoon = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-09-14 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-15 (Mon) = 3rd Quarter
2014-09-20 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-09-23 (Mon) = Equinox
2014-09-24 (Wed) = New Moon
2014-09-29 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-01 (Wed) = 1st Quarter
2014-10-06 (Mon) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-10-08 (Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-10-13 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-15 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-10-18 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-10-23 (Thu) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-10-26 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-30 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-11-02 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-11-03 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-06 (Thu) = Full Moon
2014-11-09 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-14 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Apogee
2014-11-15 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-11-21 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-22 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-11-28 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-29 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-12-06 (Sat) = Full Moon
2014-12-07 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-12 (Fri) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-12-13 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-12-14 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-12-18 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-21 (Sun) = New Moon + Solstice
2014-12-24 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-12-28 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2015-01-02 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2015-01-04 (Sun) = Full Moon + Earth @ Perihelion

See also HERE

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

Credits: Jan Alvestad